2025 – END GAME CHINA – THE BALKANIZATION

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These are the series of articles predicting the fate of China in the times to come. Data used if any is available in the public domain. Copyright © 2018-2020 Insightful Geopolitics. All rights reserved. This article or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without written permission.”

Anyone attempting to split China in any part of the country will end in crushed bodies and shattered bones.” – Chinese President Xi Jinping on a state visit to Nepal in Oct 2019. The above statement clearly indicates the nervousness of the Chinese government. As they say, beneath every story; there is another story, and there is no smoke without fire.

In November 1956, while addressing Western ambassadors at a reception at the Polish embassy in Moscow, Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev famously threatened them by stating, ”We will bury you!” (Russian: “Мы вас похороним!”). Thirty-odd years later, there was no USSR. Today, China has created such a venomous environment in and around itself that it may go the USSR way sooner than later. One of the most well-known phrases in China is: “the empire, long divided must unite; long united must divide”. Perhaps CCP and Xi Jinping have forgotten this phrase. At Insightful Geopolitics, it is our assessment that China may take less than five years to reach that stage. 

THE APPEASMENT OF CHINA

Courtesy: © Chappatte, Le Temps, Switzerland 

Fifty years back, the western world started propping up China in the hope that it would become an open society and a responsible country. In the bargain, the western concessions made China wealthy and powerful, threatening world peace. It remains as authoritarian as it was in the 70s. It’s nefarious and exploitative activities have created explosive conditions in the South China Sea; the Indian Ocean Region, and with most of its neighbors. There is no doubt that the Chinese citizens have made impressive financial progress, however, they still feel like a canary in a coal mine. China is on the boil, from the inside as well as from the outside. If the unacceptable Chinese activities go unchecked, then the world is heading for the Third World War. China in its present format is much more powerful and threatening than what Germany was in the 40s. The news coming from within China reveals that the Chinese populace is ready to break free. In the next five years, China may not be the same, as we see it today. All responsible countries of the world have to work in unison to tame this menace. They must avoid the timidness that they had demonstrated before WWII. Let us analyze.

CHINA: A COUNTRY OF VAST DIVERSITY AND INEQUALITY

For an outsider, China may look like one compact unit, where all the citizens are similar, who dress in the same fashion, and eat the same kind of food, just like in the book, ’Mao Tse-Tung: Emperor of the Blue Ants’, by George Paloczi-Horvath. However, that is far from the truth. Today’s China comprises of 56 ethnic groups. Han Chinese are majority group accounting for 91.59% of the population, and the other 55 make up the remaining 8.41%. China has 22 provinces, five autonomous regions(Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Tibet, and Xinjiang), four municipalities(Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing), and two special administrative regions(Hong Kong and Macao). The following map depicts the cultural diversity of China.

Courtesy: https://www.thatsmags.com/china/post/14018/this-map-shows-all-languages-spoken-china

HOW WOULD CHINA LOOK IN 2025

China is reaching a tipping point and most of its regions could turn into free nations. Chinese government is trying hard to keep the focus on the Taiwan, Ladakh standoff and posturing against the US-led ’Quad’ in the South China Sea, to rally support for Xi Jinping. He is escalating the non-issues and standoffs to galvanise his dwindling support base. The Communist Party is also facing major confrontations between party and people, and the emerging economic meltdown. More and more people are deciding not to believe in Jinping’s propaganda. The gap between poor and a handful of rich is widening. Only people with close connections with the top leadership and Jinping are prospering and that is the reason people don’t see a political reform in the CPC, which they so desperately want to uproot.

Looking at the above developments, China would get divided into seven or more different countries, excluding Taiwan, which is already a separate country. Leftover China would look somewhat like the map on the left side.

The Chinese territory would get restricted to the region, which is akin to the T’ang Dynasty map depicted above. This new country could consist of Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan, and Chongqing. It accounts for a major portion of the present-day population and one-fourth of the territory of the country. For the rebellion to be effective, it has to originate from this region.

The above map almost matches the high-density population areas of China. That means the majority of the present-day population of China would still be living in much smaller and weaker China.

REST OF THE COUNTRIES TO EVOLVE IN TIMES TO COME

The Most Diverse

Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi are physically, culturally, and historically much closer to Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos than Central China. The formation of a new country may result in a civil war, as many Han live there, and the ethnic minorities are not unified.

The Manchuria

This region includes Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang. The 30 million unemployed and frustrated blue-collar workers would be the first ones to rebel in this region.

Inner Mongolia

The land beyond the Great Wall has long captivated the Chinese with its aura of danger and romance. It may join the Republic of Mongolia or remain independent.

FOLLOWING WOULD GO THEIR WAY AT THE EARLIEST

Entrepot

This area consists of Hong Kong, Macau, Guangdong, and the island of Hainan. The area is relatively small but one of the richest.

Xinjiang

If Xinjiang doesn’t remain one unit, it could split into North and South Xinjiang. The South will be a definite ” East Turkistan” full of Uighurs, the North will be a mix of Han Chinese, Mongols, Kazakhs, etc.

Tibet

Tibet may go its own way or seek protection from the U.S., and India.

THE PATH TO SUCCESS IS A NOVEL APPROACH

The disintegration of China is the need of the hour. Chinese citizens and Asian countries are ready, but the West is still living in euphoria. These western leaders and strategists repeatedly make the same mistakes when dealing with an adversary like China. An analysis to achieve the desired results:

  • All leading western experts promote the idea of identifying and exploiting the enemy’s weaknesses.
  • Instead, they should identify and exploit the enemy’s strengths. 
  • Weaknesses draw heavily from the strengths. When strengths wither away, weaknesses automatically fall apart. 
  • Apply the same principle to China. 
  • China’s weaknesses are mainly Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong.
  • The success lies in the majority population – Hans.
  • Create a scenario to bring out young Hans students on the streets of China, demanding justice. 
  • A major event in the west, hurting Chinese sentiments or Chinese national pride would do the trick(surely, not as severe action as the 1999 bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, which brought out millions on the Chinese streets).  
  • Introduce carefully planned and designed local issues before the sentiments die down and demonstrators show signs of weariness. 
  • The mass moments are not allowed in China, however, CCP loves mass hysteria against the western countries. In fact, they are looking forward to incidents that would divert the attention of Chinese citizens from exploding unemployment and a ruined economy.

For the present-day Chinese youth, Mao has always been dead, and the ideas of Confucius are not exciting. For them, real China lives east of the Heihe-Tengchong line. They are upset with the CPC for squandering national wealth on unnecessary appendages of Xinjiang and Tibet. The handling of COVID and the financial crisis it has put the country into, negative economic growth, falsified financial data, and spending national wealth on faraway countries on defunct programs like OBOR are angering the Chinese youth. The disparity in China is at an all-time high between the haves and have-nots. Citizens are waiting for a catalyst to start a moment. They take part in over 500 demonstrations across the country on a daily basis. However, CPC disperses them before these demonstrations can take the shape of a moment. These are the most important reasons which would give rise to rebellion from within and Hans would be the mainstay of this rebellion. They are just waiting for a helping hand.

BROADER STRATEGY COMING SOON…

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264 thoughts

      1. From a humanistic perspective, I understand the “we” but I don’t see a collective “we”. And even if I could, I don’t think I could trust the “we” because I have yet to see any that don’t put self over the masses. The degenerative bacteria is mutating but it is still a degenerative bacteria. As a Christian, I still think the heart of the problem is the heart of humanity and until that is changed, nothing will really change, we just reposition the pieces on the chess board to facilitate the reach of power and control. Interesting article though! Thank you.

      2. Thank you so much, Bruce, for stopping by and sharing immense experience. While we talk, ChiComs cowards have killed three Indian soldiers when they were invited for a talk. Their deaths would be avenged at any cost. As my topic is – it is the endgame China. We or alone…

      3. A well analysed and lucidly written article. The present situation and pressures are what will lead to actions and results in the future. All these aspects have been covered well.

      4. Thank you so much, Rajeev, for stopping by and sharing your immense experience.

  1. China will eventually go the way of the USSR, internally , how long do not know, it may take years, they are all propped up with money to keep it together of course under the lord watchfull eye of big Red. Cheers

    1. This is going to happen internally as well as externally. Watch out for a further strategy on this website. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.

      1. I agree with you. It would be interesting to see how the western world responds to China. India is doing its bit. It is a much bigger game than most of us see it. It is time the west comes out of its slumber, else it would be too late just like the USA.

  2. Disparities in region wise development is likely to be a key trigger. Well written article provides an in-depth analysis

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. There would be a lot, just watch out.

  3. The political reforms in China have been held back for too long now. The great Chinese leaders including Mao Zedong and Dan Ziaoping had both the similar vision about politocal reforms towards democratisation of the system. It is bound to happen sooner or later. Was better if it was allowed to happen peacefully.

    Balcanisation also seems to be on the cards.

    1. This is going to happen internally as well as externally. Watch out for a further strategy on this website. Thank you so much, AK, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.

  4. Good read!
    As far as India is concerned, I think it’s time India stopped walking the tightrope with China trying to play a balancing act – Beijing cares two hoots for India’s concerns.

    Regarding what you’ve stated about the world attacking China’s strength, I agree with it but don’t think it will work without creating additional challenges for the CCP on multiple fronts – external and internal. Without much else on their plate, the CCP will ruthlessly crush any revolution of the Hand. The World should simultaneously also strike at China’s Achille’s heel – the ‘One China Policy’ (an euphemism for its hegemonic greed). Recognize Taiwan and de-recognise China’s claim on Tibet to start with. Foment dissent from within – make territories like Xinjiang, Yunnan, Manchuria and South Mongolia rise up to freedom from China. Let’s remember that the breakup of the Soviet Union started with the Balkan states – they were tiny, yet they broke free. The occupied territories in China are much larger and will be difficult to control. Hongkong can play the part of the Balkan states – tiny, yet attracting global support.
    Once this happens, India’s problems with Pakistan and with Nepal’s misplaced closeness with its newfound friend China will fizzle our without a whimper. China’s side-kick North Korean will also fall in line automatically.

    China needs to be brought down on multiple fronts – internal dissent, geographical splits & global boycotts. No way Communist China (despite its financial & military power) can handle the combined impact of this concerned effort.

    The aim has to be a breakdown of Chinese expansionism and overthrow of the Communist regime from within and transforming it to a transparent democracy. The world has to make China go the way like Japan and Germany after WW II. These two countries were the global suppliers of high-tech goods even after the war but far more safer & reliable. China can also become similar.

    China has to disintegrate geographically & culturally like the Soviet Union so that it’s expansionist ambitions can be killed forever (can’t risk it become like Germany after WW I).

    Containing China to save the World is now a necessity.

    1. A very nice,informative and passionate article. How West responds to China’s designs in coming times will be important.

    2. This is going to happen internally as well as externally. India has to move on from Nepal and Pakistan. There is no point in dragging on the relationship with Nepal. Every country is doing its mathematics to see how much they can gain from a relationship. It is a different thing that it would never happen in China’s case. What used to happen earlier in 50 years is happening in 5 years in today’s era. Watch out for a further strategy on this website, how the world should deal with China. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.

  5. Excellent compilation and very well articulated analysis. Very soon, just like USSR, China will disintegrate very soon.

    All the best.

    1. This is going to happen internally as well as externally. Watch out for a further strategy on this website. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.

  6. Sandeep… very informative read and looking forward for the addition…. best wishes

    1. This is going to happen internally as well as externally. Watch out for a further strategy on this website. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.

      1. Well written article 👍🏻.. I pray it shouldn’t be real.And if it’s real it’s time for us to awake 😇

      2. Thank you so much, Anu, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. No one wants war. I hope better sense prevails in China, and it stops its hegemonic designs, else it is in for a shock, the way our Bravehearts stunned them on the night of 15 Jun.

  7. Very appropriate and logical explanation, Chinese present policy of keeping few countries by providing inappropriate loan and support is going to work against it, sooner or later. Suppression of it own citizens is likely to be the trigger point followed by the loan defaulting countries.
    Let’s watch and react.

    1. This is going to happen internally as well as externally. Watch out for a further strategy on this website. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.

  8. Very well researched and informative article and its always a pleasure to read them.
    In fact this has potential to be a multi season TV serial or a documentary !! Think about it.

    1. Thank you so much, Shailesh, for stopping by and sharing your immense experience. Very encouraging and kind words.

  9. Sandeep…very well researched article. Gives an insight into various regions of China and their associated issues. Your articles do ignite more interest in the otherwise secrative China, behind the Great Wall.
    I feel it is still a long way before we can think of it’s disintegration.
    Right now it seems to be consolidating very well on all fronts to add more fire to the dragon…
    It will require lot of efforts from US, European powers, India and the like minded countries to extinguish that fire.
    Let’s hope for the best.

    1. Things would take shape very soon. It is the problem with India that we are shy of taking part in the Quad, wholeheartedly. Once that happens, the Quad would be very effective tool to deal with a rogue state.

      1. I think that things have changed in last week. Killing of 20 Indians has resulted “hands off ” to Indian military. That shows Indian government’s resolve. “No fire aarms/explosive within 2 km” policy lies in tatters. PM has already indicated the possibility of few other incidents. In nut shell, IIndian approach is set to change.

  10. As usual, Sandeep a well researched article. I think the pace of disintegration of China was slow but now the pace will increase and China will have to pay for its malicious behaviour towards the world. I hope the faster the world understand this, the better it is for the world.

    1. Thank you so much, Abhimanyu, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. You would see a lot happening at a very fast pace. The time for the ChiComs is over. India and other responsible nations should not leave any stone unturned to eject the Chinese race from the planet Earth. First, they gave the Chinese virus to the world and next they are getting down to bullying the world.

  11. It’s going to be a tough road ahead. But India and the world need to continue to exert pressure on China.
    It is very unfortunate that our soldiers got killed. But our Opposition is forcing the government to make moves that might backfire.
    These are tense times. But if we can hold off China will crumble under its own mistakes as it is fighting on many fronts.

    1. Things are moving very fast. I can tell you that one ChiCom asset would be taken out soon. That is why I have given 2025 as the end game year.

      1. The CCP has definitely opened many fronts like Hitler did in World War II. Will Ladakh be their Stalingrad? That remains to be seen.

        What I am more interested in how the weaponization of trade with China is going to take place.

      2. What a coincidence that I am in the process of writing a piece on it.
        If we don’t seize the economic and military moment against China then it would never happen.

  12. Interesting comparison with the Balkans. There’s still a bit of conflict there, and Bosnia has three presidents Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Croatia. China would likely be even more complicated.

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. Yes, it would not be simple, but it is achievable. That is why 2025, that is based on solid facts and studies. It is not a guesswork.

    1. Thank you so much, Martina, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. Always a pleasure to have your reviews.

  13. Highly optimistic article from Indian perspective, but feel somewhat away from the ground reality. The diversity, which you mentioned that China has, as one of the reasons that it will have secessionist tendency, is untenable. In that sense India has more diversity than China.
    Apart from this, China has gathered more clout over Indian Neighbours. Whole north is vulnerable now, and about west we already know. India should focus more on internal issues and ramping up the infrastructure else things are going out of hand.

    1. Thank you so much, Abhay, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. I suppose you missed out, I didn’t say anywhere that India would be the leader in the undoing of China. It would be a long drawn and multinational design, orchestrated by various nations. These are a series of articles laying down the whole strategy. Keep reading.

      1. Yeah..I read it. But may be commented a bit wayward. May be the news of 20 soldiers laying their life has had an impact..May be we need many more things to interospect

      2. I salute those Bravehearts who took on treacherous, unprofessional Chinese mercenaries, despite being stabbed in the back. If they were soldiers they would have fought like a soldier.

      3. It happens. I was also anguished and full of hatred for ChiComs, the whole day. We shall redeem our revenge.

  14. I am worried about the scenario, developing over the next two decades, in which, if China falls then India falls too. The balkanization of India is also a long held goal of the same western powers (80s-90s was a high time for them predicting India’s demise in their press and policy circles) that now have come to a point of tipping over China. The North-East will be the first to go, based on largely Christian population (>85 % in some regions), who would use the religion as a pretext. Then the Muslim majority areas would create another break-up of India. We should start worrying about our own demise rather than look at China.

    The fifth generation psychological warfare of maligning India and its culture through various news and media outlets, including Amazon, Netflix etc, is already on its way. Once the western people live through a dosage of propaganda they will inevitably view Indians as sub-humans and uncultured. Already, in the west, many people think that all Indians are rapists, thanks to the brilliant propaganda campaigns to paint all Indians are sexual perverts.

    Then this idea is already taking good shape that Hindus are intolerant and militant. US council for religious freedom already has cooked up many things portraying Hindus are persecutors of innocent Christians and Muslims. The victim card or the – us poor persecuted is the best weapon to demolish any effort at seeking unbiased view. Once they decide to paint somebody as bad…the world media controlled by the west relentlessly maligns the target population or civilization.

    Perhaps, we should not be too happy with China going down into pieces. It wont be beneficial in the long run. But then Xi is on a path that sure seems to bring the decimation of the Chinese system from within. However, with the sole Asian power gone, the world would be a very different place or probably a new “monster” called India will be created in the next two decades, fueled by phenomenal economic growth (thanks to western investments) and then the IOR would again become the domain of the powers of the day, after the disintegration of India.

    1. Thank you so much, Jyotirmay, for stopping by and sharing your wonderful review. The splitting of China is not our, or a western design, they are imposing those conditions on themselves. If we don’t slay them now, we ourselves would be in bigger trouble in the future. Anyways, the next two years are going to be very challenging for the Indian Union. India lost 1000 years of progression due to this lowering of the guard and expecting good from everyone. No more is my answer.

      1. The idea of cutting to size of anyone posing a challenge to the supremacy and the world order of the west should not be some sort of a revelation by now. China was supposed to be a nation based western values, as you have mentioned, and it turned out to be a different creature over time.

        Historically, there is evidence of the Chinese Melon being enjoyed by the western imperialist powers. Me no like it… Me goin to split it

        Let us see, what happens and when.

        Thanks for your ever enjoyable blog writes!
        🙂

    1. My heart goes out to our brave martyrs, who slew the uncouth China virus spreader PLA mercenaries. No professional soldier behaves in this manner. It is a historic fact that this race is the most uncivilized and cowardly ever roamed the planet Earth.

      1. There is a history of such coward acts by the Chinese. I think they are known more for their deceit than bravery.

        In 1967 (Nathu La and Cho La), they did something like this, when the party commissar attached to the platoon opened fire from his bunkers on the unarmed Indian soldiers who were fencing their side after the negotiations were finished and agreed upon (ref: Gen. G.D. Bakshi in yesterday’s TV debate).

        Then the Indian Army taught those conniving commie @zoles a good lesson. I think, they have forgotten that drubbing and want more of it this time. Chinese army is highly unprofessional and high on false sense of superiority fed by party propagandists. Real life with slap them into reality when war happens.

        Their acts are very much like the Pakistanis…you remember the BAT squads who used to behead BSF patrols?

        I don’t know who learned this kind of cowardly behavior from whom? The Pakistanis from the Chinese or vice-versa!

      2. Absolutely correct, Jyotirmay. In fact, I have brought it out in my articles on China, previously.
        Chinese history is full of Kings, leaders, and military, who were treacherous in nature and masters of double gaming.

    1. Thank you so much, D’Nanda, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It is always a pleasure to have you over.

  15. China balkanisation is not India’s burden. Our aim is to defend our land and interests. To achieve that, let us first boycott all chinese business and trade as citizens.Let the Govt impose tit for tat tariffs against chinese business citing domestic public demand. Let Govt highlight wuhan virus damage internationally. Next let govt galvanise international support for taking back PoK which destroys CEPEC leading to economic loss to china. Meanwhile, encourage Tibetans in India in their fight for independence that leads to international Tibetans joining the fight against china. These are steps that can start off asap. Let us not overtly wish or participate in balkanisation. Let us remain on “Vasudaiva Kutumbakam” mode while we execute the afore said steps.

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It is a long-drawn war to be fought at multiple fronts. Economically, diplomatically and militarily. A smaller and weaker China is in our as well as other Asian nation’s interests. The present format of China would eventually be more dangerous than Nazi Germany. We cannot effort to be complacent and colonized for another 1000 years.

      1. Your insightful article is a stimulant for many ideas. Agreed about Nazi expansionism of CCP. Until Dictatorial CCP regime is dismantled, there is no peace for Asia and freedom for suffering Chinese citizens. Agree with your multi pronged strategy. A weaker CCP comes from economic loss, military humiliations and International pressure to free occupied lands of Tibet, Inner Mangolia, East Turkestan etc. Also, We as citizens must protest the One China Policy and in turn the Govt listening to people’s voice (democracy) ditch One China Policy and declare CCP as illegitimate occupier of China while recognising Taiwan as legitimate China. Appreciate your analysis again.

      2. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your wonderful insight.
        You are very correct in your assessment. This is going to happen internally as well as externally. India has to move on from Nepal and Pakistan. There is no point in dragging on the relationship with Nepal. Every country is doing its mathematics to see how much they can gain from a relationship. It is a different thing that it would never happen in China’s case. What used to happen earlier in 50 years is happening in 5 years in today’s era. Watch out for a further strategy on this website, how the world should deal with China. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results.

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It is a long-drawn war to be fought at multiple fronts. Economically, diplomatically and militarily. A smaller and weaker China is in our as well as other Asian nation’s interests. The present format of China would eventually be more dangerous than Nazi Germany. We cannot effort to be complacent and colonized for another 1000 years.

  16. Your prognosis of the Chinese implosion is a ‘Black Swan’ event that many are hoping will come true earlier than predicted. However, the Chinese research and thinking has been keeping them ahead of the world and surprising even the US. Xi has restructured the PLA into theater Commands and cut sharply into the hold that PLA had over PLAN and PLAAF, the control now is centrally with him. The use of AI to map all citizens is a step in the direction of eradicating unrest even before it germinates. The power and decisions are more centralised than they were in the past. It is another matter that to break into their civil society through open social media itself is a herculean task. Most importantly we may have many world players dissenting the Chinese policies and expansion but not one to bell the cat, the cost is too high. The Dragon may not emerge as a winner in a power struggle but is capable of taking down the strongest of its challenger along with it. Nations are willing to support powers who are willing to confront but not willing to engage directly. Everyone is looking to fill in the power vacuum that emerges when China implodes. Pushing back the Chinese and eroding their softpower may be a long term less abrasive strategy to negotiate power equations. Your articles are always thought provoking and refreshing ……

    1. Thank you so much, Atul, for stopping by and sharing your immense experience. It is indeed a tall order to slay the dragon. It has to be a grand strategy, much larger than what the world had against Nazi Germany. In the 40s, even Germany looked invincible. As you have brought out, a black swan event is what we are all hoping for. China plans and executes every strategy very well, however, we are waiting for that one mistake. China has no culture of soft power, that concept is alien to them. They work on something called, Sharp Power, and that may not be acceptable to the world all the time.

  17. The way the situation has panned out after the treacherous act by Chinese PLA thugs (I will not tell them forces since forces do not act like the way they have acted at night with sticks with nails!). This act of theirs shows that they cannot be trusted if and when they finalize any understanding with India OR with any other country.

    The way Chinese have hoodwinked the world at large with the spread of Covid-19 pandemic globally which has hugely taken its toll economically and also human life toll – no country is left immune. The reaction or no reaction of other countries depends on their own thinking and perception.

    India does not have expansionist intention for any other country’s areas whereas China wants to subjugates the neighbours – Japan, South Korea, Philpine, etc.

    I think there are some reasons for the reaction of Chinese day before yesterday night:-

    1. The construction of road and other infra.
    2. China wanted to show their presence felt in the GALWAN HEIGHTS, Finger area etc in Ladakh.
    3. Galway Valley is crucial region, China is worried about the construction of bridge and feeder road.
    4. The Chinese are worried about take over of AKSAI CHIN take over by India and also their Belt and Road initiative passing through POK (which is India’s area). Gilgit Bltistan.
    5. . The Indian enhancing their relationship with Australia, USA and other countries; this aspect too is also causing heart-burns to China.
    6. The countries who had invested hugely in CHINA have started taking out their investments to other countries including India which is causing anxiety to China.
    7. Its vulnerability of WHO inquiry.
    8. Its vulnerability in Tibet, HK, Taiwant and the areas which they have occupied forcibly.

    It is my considered view that it is INDIA only which can teach China a lesson not merely in the borer but also S. China sea too.

    The back-stabbing which the Chinese did has taken toll – 20 Indian soldiers have been martyred including a CO but death on Chinese side too is also huge including their CO.

    Lets see what happens now as the forces from both sides are eye-ball-to eye-ball situattion.

    1. Thank you so much, Harbans, for stopping by and sharing your very informed review. My heart goes out to our brave martyrs, who slew the uncouth China virus spreader PLA mercenaries. No professional soldier behaves in this manner. It is a historic fact that this race is the most uncivilized and cowardly ever roamed the planet Earth. If we don’t slay them now, we ourselves would be in bigger trouble in the future. Anyways, the next two years are going to be very challenging for the Indian Union. India lost 1000 years of progression due to this lowering of the guard and expecting good from everyone. No more is my answer.

      1. Thank you so very much for giving your considered opinion about the state of affairs in our sphere of influence and the valour of our soldiers.

        Lets see what happens next. But one thing is sure; we should believe in the leadership of Modiji. He has given authority to the military leadership to act according to their discretion. i think everything will go well and outcome would be in our favour ultimately.

      2. The same feeling Let us see what our professional army could do to the rogues who do not respect the protocols of understanding reached between two armies only on 6th June 2020. Too much is really too much.

      3. China pursues a policy called ‘da da, tan tan’ – ‘fight fight, talk talk’. A strategy that you talk but don’t stop fighting. That is why one should never believe a Chinese individual or institution.

      4. Seemingly so. Now that India is reconsidering about not to have any business with China, it will go well. Other countries too should follow suit since they have hoodwinked many a countries too. For example, Railways has cancelled a deal for shoddy work done that too taking more time for its fructification? Now truth is coming out and lets see what future brings out

      5. I just hope that we keep our greed under control. We still cannot do away with China 100%. They have many aces up their sleeves. But if we just persist, we shall come out winner.

      6. Yes, the China has entrenched into our way of lives and we have to come out of this quagmire, the sooner it is done the better for our industries and us too. It would be a difficult transition initially but with time we shall adjust. But the feelings against China is at its peak now than ever.

      7. That is absolutely correct. If we are not able to do it now, then it would never happen.

      8. Affirmative, lets see in which way the wind blows but whatever would happen would happen for the best to tame the dragon and make it meeker and weaker so that it behaves in future.

      9. The issue is not going to get resolved in the Himalayas. If as a country we think so then we are very naive.

      10. That is a fact, we have to show strong resolve both on the border and also inside our country -our self-reliance in defence, ensure economic growth, ensure unity amongst all etc.

    1. Yes, and they will give them a befitting one. Thank you so much, Gurprit, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.

  18. ChiComs control individuals by the Social Credit System. Large groups will not protest for fear of receiving the wrath of the PLA as occurred in 1989 in Tiananmen Square. I think the catalyst for a break up must come from external not internal pressures. The strategic vulnerability, I suspect, is the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The critical weakness is likely their lack of domestically produced energy. I think the focus must be to weaken the CCP by somehow driving up the cost of imported oil and gas.

    1. Thank you so much, ST, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. As always a pleasure to have your intelligent review of the situation. Indeed, it would be both, external as well as the internal pressure on the ChiComs. In fact, it would take more than 2-3 countries to bring down the monster.

  19. Excellent analysis of the situation. Praying for our braveheart Indian soldiers who attained veergati. I am looking forward to the day when India gets back all of its encroached territories and when Indians will no longer need a visa to make a pilgrimage to Kailash Mansarovar.

    1. Thank you so much, Indu, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. I have been propagating this thought process for long that Kailash Mansarovar has been mentioned in our scriptures, which are over 5000 years old when Chinese must be eating grass. We should claim that land and be aggressive.

  20. What I see here in Western Europe is that China is more seen as a supplier, yes, but also as a market for European products than an enemy of world peace. And I think the greed has not reached its peak yet. In our so called democracies kapital is the real ruler.

    In Europe there is a strong tendency to intimidate people with the fear of an invading Russia instead.

    I wonder if the US would be a player in the game? They are indebted up to their eyebrows to China.

    1. Thank you so much, Stella, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. You have read the thought process of European nations very well. That is the reason we are not depending on the west, other than small talk. The monster would be brought down by willing countries like the U.S., India, Australia, Japan, and a few more from Asia. China can choke Europe anytime with its financial muscle.

  21. Very informative and articulated. Is the world ready to take on China ? No , not yet for simple reason that China has cleverly invested in different countries around the globe .Their withdrawal will cripple the economy of that country. USSR in cold war era postured against Capitalism and generously spended aided and funded its Soviet bloc countries leaving a huge hole in their pocket,economically weakening them.Whereas China championed Capitalism and invested in colonies for wealth creation and is not interested in forming its bloc or encircling and containing west .They have learnt from failed USSR mistakes.Both were communist ,one leninist and other Maoist.No doubt Chinese are the neo Colonialists ,imperialists , the moneylenders.They have beaten the west in their own game .China can only be tamed by the west through military engagement but China choses a weak adversary and avoids direct confrontation with stronger nations . China has to confront and threaten USA supremacy aggressively .The Chinese never let thier US rivalry reach to that alarming levels.
    I believe CCP and PLA has an iron grip over its population, very difficult for ethnic groups to revolt .Until and unless a leader like Gorbachev takes control of China. We in India have to stand up to China,the moneylender and a bully , face to face and fist to fist . I believe we have to fight out our battles alone ,the west is nither willing nor trustworthy to rely on .
    Thank you for raising China issue in these trying times ,when our bravehearts are fighting them in Ladakh.Let us perform our karma and hope others will join in sooner or later.

    1. Thank you so much, Mohit, for stopping by and sharing your wonderful review. The splitting of China is not our, or a western design, they are imposing those conditions on themselves. If we don’t slay them now, we ourselves would be in bigger trouble in the future. It is indeed a tall order to slay the dragon. It has to be a grand strategy, much larger than what the world had against Nazi Germany. In the 40s, even Germany looked invincible. As you have brought out, a black swan event is what we are all hoping for. China plans and executes every strategy very well, however, we are waiting for that one mistake. China has no culture of soft power, that concept is alien to them. They work on something called, Sharp Power, and that may not be acceptable to the world all the time. Anyways, the next two years are going to be very challenging for the Indian Union. India lost 1000 years of progression due to this lowering of the guard and expecting good from everyone. No more is my answer.

  22. Wow! This is an awesome post, Sandomina, and no doubt it gives so many around the world hope that this bully will be subdued. I heard on the news this morning that twenty soldiers from India were killed during a fight with Chinese soldiers on the border and that Xinping was trying his best to do a little damage control. Thank you for being another news source we can rely on!

    1. Thank you so much, Cherie, for stopping by. As always it is indeed it a pleasure to interact with you. It is a tall order to slay the dragon. It has to be a grand strategy, much larger than what the world had against Nazi Germany. In the 40s, even Germany looked invincible. As you have brought out, a black swan event is what we are all hoping for. China plans and executes every strategy very well, however, we are waiting for that one mistake. China has no culture of soft power, that concept is alien to them. They work on something called, Sharp Power, and that may not be acceptable to the world all the time. It is now or never.

      1. You’re very welcome, Sandomina. And you’re right, it’s now or never. We have a lot of division in our country right now and we need to get it together. Because a divided country is a conquereable country. We’re making baby steps, but we have a long way to go! Thank you so much for responding. It’s always a pleasure to interact with you!

      2. You are so right, Cherie. The U.S. has to get its people together. Beijing is thoroughly enjoying this divide, and you never know if pumping in money to keep it boiling.

      3. We’re pretty sure that they are financing some of it, Sandomina. I’m hoping and praying we can get our collective sh** together and focus our anger on the real enemy!

      4. You are so correct, Cherie. The real enemies for India and the U.S. are ChiComs and the CPC. I hold no grudge against Chinese citizens. In fact, they would be grateful to us if we liberate them. In our small capacity, we must propagate this thought trough out the world.

      5. Absolutely! And we’ve already pulled many of our businesses out of that cesspool and bringing them back home. The sooner we and several other countries sever ties with China, the better! And it will take a while to get the word out about China’s evil! But it will be done!

      6. Cherie, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results. I am so happy that countries are getting out of that mentality now. Sorry to say but the EU is still in slumber.

      7. Much of our media doesn’t really tell us a lot on the China front. But I watch OAN (One America News) and they tell the truth about world and national events. They talked about the Indian soldiers being killed on the China/India Border yesterday. No other networks even mentioned it I don’t believe.

      8. The whole process of Chinese withdrawl was supposed to be unarmed. The Indian forces went on that understanding and faith. But uncivilised and unscrupulous Chinese attacked them with clubs saddled with nails. Brave Indian soldiers fought with bare hands and killed 43 ChiComs, before laying their lives.

      9. History has it that every tyrant meets his match. It is always a matter of time.

      10. Absolutely! And China knows it’s days are numbered and they’re scared and desperate. American battleships are already in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean.

      11. Me too. But I think he’s got a good head on his shoulders and he doesn’t take any crap. He’s very smart and he knows when he’s being played. Trust me when I say, he’s got his eyes on China. Even in the midst of all this discord.

      12. That’s so wonderful to hear. China is scared of him. They could barge their way through with all the previous Presidents, but not him.

      13. That’s right! And Trump hasn’t said exactly why the ships are there. And don’t quote me because I could be wrong (but don’t think I am). I think the ships are there incase China tries to invade India.

      14. If you remember the WW2, then you know it well that it took a large number of countries and the nerve of steels to bring the monsters down. History is about to repeat itself.

      15. Absolutely! I believe that too. This just might start WWIII if China doesn’t back off! And it will probably be the whole world against China and N. Korea.

      16. Believe you me, China is not going to back off. It is gathering like-minded countries in its kitty. China-N Korea-Pakistan and many more.

      17. We are holding and rather engaging a large force of their’s in the Himalayas. This gives a wonderful chance to other like-minded nations to start acting in their own interest.

      18. And if they do, they’re have to go through the USA to do it. But I don’t think they will because they don’t want to start something they won’t be able to finish.

      19. One can compare China with a neighborhood bully, who wants to trouble and scare others so that he can do his work freely. China doesn’t know how to be a gangster. So whether we leave it or face it, China would continue with its nefarious activities.

      20. They would, unless we strike them so hard they can’t get up again. That’s what you have to do to a bully. Strike so hard that they either can’t get up, or they’re overcome with such fear that they don’t want to mess with you again. I did that with a few bullies back in school. Whipped them so badly that they didn’t want another piece of me after that. Because if you don’t strike hard enough, you’ll only anger them and they’ll keep coming back for another fight.

      21. Yes, the bully thrives on fear-psychosis. Once you overcome that he has nothing left in his quiver.

      22. The United States has over 3000 companies working out of China if they pull out the dragon will have a crash landing. It is so sad when I see in TV debates, the biggest of the economists and investors talk otherwise. They say pulling out is not possible.

      23. Right. And the economists are full of BS. They say that because they’re afraid that if we pull out, they stand to lose lots of $$$. There are lots of crooked fat cats profiting off of dealings with China and they’re doing everything possible to block Trump’s efforts to drag US investers out of bed with the Chinese.

      24. Absolutely, why should the US have so much business outside and pay social security to the people back home? Makes sense.

      25. Oh, believe me. I do too. Hiding China’s evil agenda behind the protests. China is trying to take over the world and it’s a good thing that more and more people are becoming aware of it.

      26. Problem in the North American is that the Academia and Media have been infiltrated by China. Just recently close to 100 scientists and academicians were caught for being on Chinese payroll. So it is becoming relatively difficult, who to believe and who not.

      27. That’s right. And we have leaders right here that are in the Deep State right along with China and who are trying to take away our freedoms. They want to dominate. And what better way to do it than to indoctrinate all the schools and universities. If my kids were about to be college age today, no way would I send them to university. Don’t get me wrong, I value education as I’m a college grad myself. But education has changed dramatically since I was in college. Nowadays, they’re trying to phase out American History, World History, American Government and Civics from the schools. Why? Because they want us to forget history. They know that if we forget the mistakes and sins of the past, we’re bound to repeat them. And that’s what they want! They want us to repeat those sins and mistakes! And they want us to hate ourselves.

      28. That is the reason we have to choose very carefully, what we read and who do we listen to. There are 500 Confucius Institutes across the globe in the best of the Universities. They are the Chinese propaganda and recruitment centers.

      29. It’s going to take a while, no doubt about it- maybe even years. But we want to sever any business dealings with China. Trump realizes that our leaders have been selling us all out to China for decades, so you can bet that getting rid of them won’t happen overnight. What took years to get to this point is going to take years to undo.

      30. You are so right. The whole world’s economy started revolving around China and no one realized it. Today the monster is so huge that it would certainly take time and effort both.

      31. I just hope that the EU countries realize this important aspect and act on it. They are the second-largest economic partners of China after the USA.

      32. That’s true. I’m very picky about where I get my news. I have to be because the mainstream media have evolved into a mill of lies. Thank God for the internet, and for One America News and The Epoch Times, otherwise we’d be in deep trouble!

      33. BBC had become a stooge of the USSR during the cold war. Today they are returning the favor to China. I just don’t understand them.

      34. I have a lot of trust in Trump. I suppose he demolished a lot of established crooks, which spooked the whole establishment. That is the reason they kept disturbing him throughout his first term.

      35. You got that right! And I hope Trump succeeds in crushing the establishment! Because once we’re rid of the establishment, the better off the whole world will be, me thinks!

  23. Your country needs to seize all of your land back that China has ‘annexed’ by hook or by crook. Let the pushback begin with the Indian Armed Forces against what I suspect is a very hollow PLA.

    1. We are ready. It is now or never. I assure you, we would not depend on anyone for this. Other countries if any, can seize the opportunity in the South China Sea. Watch out 2025, would be the last days of China.

      1. Presently anger and enthusiasm are too much against China, so this is not the right time to go wholeheartedly. We shall bind our time and wait for the opportune moment. It is a war of power, guys, technology, and preparation. We have to look inwards before we act outwards. But look we will.

      2. Yes, I made some security changes but I did not expect it to affect you.

        I will re-set so that you can participate on Unleashed as normal, and please do post them. Sorry, I meant to read your most recent OPs and comment on your blog but I have been terribly busy lately.

        Please try again on Unleashed when you have time.

      3. Oh, that’s good. I was worried about your health as well as wondering if the website has been hacked or something.

  24. Bonjour mon Ami Amie
    https://i.postimg.cc/CxVpdV3K/bonjour-083.jpg

    https://i.postimg.cc/B6BZWtF9/caf.gif

    Même si ce n’est que du virtuel

    Prenons un café ensemble et discutons d’un monde meilleur
    Où règne le bonheur

    Discutons de nos souhaits
    Qu’ils se réalisent

    Discutons d’avoir une grande maison
    ou tous ensemble , amis du monde , on se rassemblera chaque saison

    Rêvons d’une nouvelle société de paix
    Où chacun de nous aura son nid

    Rêvons d’un monde paisible
    Où l’on oubliera les soucis les plus pénibles

    Rêvons ensemble de ce futur
    Où l’on effacera le passé le plus dur

    Partageons d’un sourire éternel
    en survolant l’immense ciel ou la joie sera pure

    Tu vois mon ami , amies du monde
    je dépose un petit peu de bonheur dans le creux de ton cœur, te souhaiter ce qu’il y a de meilleur

    bonne fin de journée bisous Bernard

    1. Thank you so much, Bernard, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It is always a pleasure to have you over.

  25. China has been indulged and handled with kid gloves by the US like a spoilt child is appeased by parents who ought to know better. I don’t know about EU, but the US has gifted China jobs, education and know-how in every field while allowing its own workers to languish for lack of jobs and education.
    1. Why do Americans take in so many foreign students after developing such a good college system? Shdn’t they prioritise their kids and make college more accessible to them?

    2. Isn’t it stupid, even dangerous, to employ foreigners in their research facilities? Won’t they take back knowledge, data, training, etc and use the know-how to take their countries fwd when they return home? And work against the US?

    3. When you get stuff manufactured in China/India/Taiwan/Mexico etc you’re training locals who pass on the methods to their friends, which is how one can buy perfect copies of Louis Vuitton bags, etc. cheaply in SE Asia, isn’t it?

    I feel sad for America. It’s like a kid who has been given every opportunity by parents – and he dies at 20 of a drug overdose.

    1. Thank you so much, Shyamala, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. China was recognized and propped up by Nixon and Kissinger in their desire to bring down USSR. USSR did not break up because of China but in the bargain, the United States created another monster called China. Thereafter, all the Presidents who came had either personal business interests or were working on behalf of some corporation. Though many economists talk about cheap labor in China, in reality, most of the Asian countries had cheap labor, so that logic has no basis. The main reason was the greed of the west and the continuity of CPC in China. CPC could ensure whatever they promised with their inhuman treatment of their citizens. The only requirement for the west was to ignore these facts and laugh their way to the bank. The admission of students and the exchange program of scientists were part of the same deal. However, the Chinese leadership has always been learned and up to date on most aspects of governance, unlike many other countries. They don’t think short term and do not alter their thinking very often.
      America is the last hope of the same and free world.

  26. Another astute piece.
    China has much to gain from beyond its borders. A global boycott will crush them economically but, revisiting my opinion on your previous publication, Western benevolence is opportunistic and breeds convenient amnesia. Has the US stopped making Chinese industry robust yet, or has it put an end to exporting top-end education to Chinese posterity? Who will run their ship/s if that happens? Here at home, our kids still play with cheap Chinese toys and the nukkad still sells Chinese fairy lights and stockings. On this front, hats off to the daring of Delhi traders. Hope their resolve is stronger than the Chinese imports they are heroically boycotting.

    From a political standpoint, it is the madness of the one in chair that will decide who annihilates who first. It’s not about material wherewithal anymore, or magic words. Not everyone can be a Putin or Netanyahu. Or Xi J.

    We just lost 20 soldiers to terror and terrain. We have lost countless more on the other side over decades, and continue to. The cats are all belled. The world is not blind. What more is it waiting for?

    Again, India makes it into the UNSC as a non-permanent member. Guess who retains permanency and the vote?! A world peace making organization cannot unanimously oust an oppressor with policy. Will world military unite against it?! Little else will bend them right now.

    Hoping that internal strife will eventually curb their roguish external exploits, even if a strategic end game has begun, do we have time to let it pan out? We have already lost 20 men and possibly even a lake bezelled territory.

    1. Thank you so much, Tejaswi, for stopping by and sharing your in-depth and passionate analysis.
      If we are thinking that west would come to rescue us, then we are the biggest foolish east of the Suez Canal. I interact with a lot of westerners, their countries see China as a supplier of good and not a threat, despite the fact many of them are neck-deep in the Chinese loan quagmire.
      Only the US, Japan, and Australia could be there to lend a helping hand, that too for their own sake. The EU remains in its WW2 slumber and Russia remains their biggest enemy.
      The loss of 20 Indian soldiers didn’t make the first-page headline of any western newspaper. Most of the westerners are oblivious of this gruesome crime, and couldn’t care less.
      60% of Indian heavy industry and pharmaceutical depend on supplies from China, they would continue to import lest we want those industries to collapse. China is very much aware of these facts. The Delhi Trader’s Association’s actions are loadable and should be backed up by the government action plan.
      We as individuals should start buying local toothpicks to Ganesh Murti and Diwali lights. One simple example. The well-known Eagle Flask is an Indian Brand. Earlier every part was made in India. Today other than the outer cap every other is imported from China and then assembled in India.
      So we need to do a lot of footwork before we jump on that bandwagon. It is doable, but a firm action plan with honest intent and unwavering resolve is required.

      1. The West cares two hoots. As long as their markets are booming, they will maintain all status quo. They have even our industries finely entwined. I was not aware of the Milton crossover. And as you say, China knows this all too well.

        The US talks tough on Tibet now because their sparkling eyes see a strategic replacement for Afghanistan. They will talk, however, and strongly oppose a full-blown military retaliation by us, should a war unfold. Others will join them too. That is what happens with Pakistan, everytime.

        In an evolved world, war should not even be a consideration, but in the NW and NE, we are not dealing with ethical or evolved minds. We are dealing with medieval barbarians, as shown most recently in the illegal and premeditated Chinese attack on Indian Troops. And our Galwan soldiers have shown that we can give back as good as we get, maybe better, contrary to public opinion.

        Now if public policy also spoke the same language, the world will take note. Especially the West. Till then, they will slumber on and keep their backs warm – you say it like it is. We are on our own here, we usually are.

        No one wants a war. We certainly should not have to suffer any more clandestine ones.

        I really hope a lot of non-military/political people are following this series, Sandeep. layman inorance has been used against us enough.

      2. Tejaswi, even if we don’t want war, it would be imposed upon us. We compromise in Ladakh, China would start their nefarious activities in Arunachal Pradesh. We compromise there, they would trouble us in IOR, ignore them there they would needle you through their vassal States Pakistan and Nepal. I give maximum up to 2023. We are heading for a war. If we want to prepare ourselves, we have two years.

  27. The article is a pipe dream, the author has not taken into account the iron grip of the CCP and has completely sidestepped the PLA, which will be used to suppress the dissent. The surveillance of the people by the CCP using latest technology has not been taken into account. Moreover, the restlessness of the masses will be converted to nationalism by the external or foreign actions of the Chinese government.

    1. Thank you so much, Ajay, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It is a theory but certainly not a piped dream. Nothing is permanent in geopolitics. The USSR was also considered invincible and unbreakable in its time.
      I am in the know of many things that I cannot disclose. The world would not be the same by 2025 for sure.

      1. Interestingly though, the Soviets were clueless right up to the point when the “stans” started saying different things from the Moscow. Once, the Soviet system started crumbling there were a number of diplomats and other embassy attaches, across Europe, that were jumping over to the west for permanent asylum or residence.

        So, neither China is invincible nor the west will stay the same forever. Its a battle for wit and grit. The Russians played chess as well as the west. Both understood the mindset, the techniques, the mid-game and the players. Perhaps, the endgame was also by and large tilted in the favor of the west, and they knew it. With China it could be a bit different, I think, because they are playing by the rules of Go and the west, although knows about the game, is hardwired for Chess.

        With the deployment of IN in the Malacca straits and anti-sub operations on-going, we could feel well covered. The nagging feeling is that Arunachal Pradesh might be on the Chinese mind right now. The relative importance of that region viz a viz Galwan Valley must be considered.

      2. Very well said, Jyotirmay. We have to enhance our capacity and capability in many areas, IN is one such entity. Defence R&D and production is another weak area. Pakistan produces more small arms than we produce. ISRO is the only saving grace.
        We should not live in the romanticism of yesteryear’s, be it Nepal or Sri Lanka.
        Every Indian has to work harder in whichever domina he/she is existing. The citizens of the country have to think before they cast their ballots. CPC leaders are very well-read and up to date with world happenings. How many of the Indian politicians have that level of caliber, we have to think very hard.
        Would Indians be ready to more for goods for the next few years? If we have to boycott Chinese goods, there is a cost to it. A comprehensive plan’s implementation and execution for many years to come.

    1. Thank you so much, Piyush, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. I am glad that you have liked it.

  28. I salute to those bravehearts Indians who against those unprofessional chines army fought and martyred. Bloody chines will be finished . They are going to be in one corner in the world except their puppets.

  29. Such an interesting perspective . rich in detail . Allows one to make a more realistic assessment of geopolitics and not get lost in meaningless headlines

    1. Thank you so much, Ananda, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. I am glad that you have liked it.

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