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“These are the series of articles predicting the fate of China in the times to come. Data used if any is available in the public domain. Copyright © 2018-2020 Insightful Geopolitics. All rights reserved. This article or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without written permission.”
”Anyone attempting to split China in any part of the country will end in crushed bodies and shattered bones.” – Chinese President Xi Jinping on a state visit to Nepal in Oct 2019. The above statement clearly indicates the nervousness of the Chinese government. As they say, beneath every story; there is another story, and there is no smoke without fire.
In November 1956, while addressing Western ambassadors at a reception at the Polish embassy in Moscow, Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev famously threatened them by stating, ”We will bury you!” (Russian: “Мы вас похороним!”). Thirty-odd years later, there was no USSR. Today, China has created such a venomous environment in and around itself that it may go the USSR way sooner than later. One of the most well-known phrases in China is: “the empire, long divided must unite; long united must divide”. Perhaps CCP and Xi Jinping have forgotten this phrase. At Insightful Geopolitics, it is our assessment that China may take less than five years to reach that stage.
THE APPEASMENT OF CHINA
Fifty years back, the western world started propping up China in the hope that it would become an open society and a responsible country. In the bargain, the western concessions made China wealthy and powerful, threatening world peace. It remains as authoritarian as it was in the 70s. It’s nefarious and exploitative activities have created explosive conditions in the South China Sea; the Indian Ocean Region, and with most of its neighbors. There is no doubt that the Chinese citizens have made impressive financial progress, however, they still feel like a canary in a coal mine. China is on the boil, from the inside as well as from the outside. If the unacceptable Chinese activities go unchecked, then the world is heading for the Third World War. China in its present format is much more powerful and threatening than what Germany was in the 40s. The news coming from within China reveals that the Chinese populace is ready to break free. In the next five years, China may not be the same, as we see it today. All responsible countries of the world have to work in unison to tame this menace. They must avoid the timidness that they had demonstrated before WWII. Let us analyze.
CHINA: A COUNTRY OF VAST DIVERSITY AND INEQUALITY
For an outsider, China may look like one compact unit, where all the citizens are similar, who dress in the same fashion, and eat the same kind of food, just like in the book, ’Mao Tse-Tung: Emperor of the Blue Ants’, by George Paloczi-Horvath. However, that is far from the truth. Today’s China comprises of 56 ethnic groups. Han Chinese are majority group accounting for 91.59% of the population, and the other 55 make up the remaining 8.41%. China has 22 provinces, five autonomous regions(Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Tibet, and Xinjiang), four municipalities(Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Chongqing), and two special administrative regions(Hong Kong and Macao). The following map depicts the cultural diversity of China.
HOW WOULD CHINA LOOK IN 2025
China is reaching a tipping point and most of its regions could turn into free nations. Chinese government is trying hard to keep the focus on the Taiwan, Ladakh standoff and posturing against the US-led ’Quad’ in the South China Sea, to rally support for Xi Jinping. He is escalating the non-issues and standoffs to galvanise his dwindling support base. The Communist Party is also facing major confrontations between party and people, and the emerging economic meltdown. More and more people are deciding not to believe in Jinping’s propaganda. The gap between poor and a handful of rich is widening. Only people with close connections with the top leadership and Jinping are prospering and that is the reason people don’t see a political reform in the CPC, which they so desperately want to uproot.
Looking at the above developments, China would get divided into seven or more different countries, excluding Taiwan, which is already a separate country. Leftover China would look somewhat like the map on the left side.
The Chinese territory would get restricted to the region, which is akin to the T’ang Dynasty map depicted above. This new country could consist of Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Sichuan, and Chongqing. It accounts for a major portion of the present-day population and one-fourth of the territory of the country. For the rebellion to be effective, it has to originate from this region.
The above map almost matches the high-density population areas of China. That means the majority of the present-day population of China would still be living in much smaller and weaker China.
REST OF THE COUNTRIES TO EVOLVE IN TIMES TO COME
The Most Diverse
Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangxi are physically, culturally, and historically much closer to Myanmar, Thailand, and Laos than Central China. The formation of a new country may result in a civil war, as many Han live there, and the ethnic minorities are not unified.
This region includes Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang. The 30 million unemployed and frustrated blue-collar workers would be the first ones to rebel in this region.
The land beyond the Great Wall has long captivated the Chinese with its aura of danger and romance. It may join the Republic of Mongolia or remain independent.
FOLLOWING WOULD GO THEIR WAY AT THE EARLIEST
This area consists of Hong Kong, Macau, Guangdong, and the island of Hainan. The area is relatively small but one of the richest.
If Xinjiang doesn’t remain one unit, it could split into North and South Xinjiang. The South will be a definite ” East Turkistan” full of Uighurs, the North will be a mix of Han Chinese, Mongols, Kazakhs, etc.
Tibet may go its own way or seek protection from the U.S., and India.
THE PATH TO SUCCESS IS A NOVEL APPROACH
The disintegration of China is the need of the hour. Chinese citizens and Asian countries are ready, but the West is still living in euphoria. These western leaders and strategists repeatedly make the same mistakes when dealing with an adversary like China. An analysis to achieve the desired results:
- All leading western experts promote the idea of identifying and exploiting the enemy’s weaknesses.
- Instead, they should identify and exploit the enemy’s strengths.
- Weaknesses draw heavily from the strengths. When strengths wither away, weaknesses automatically fall apart.
- Apply the same principle to China.
- China’s weaknesses are mainly Tibet, Xinjiang, and Hong Kong.
- The success lies in the majority population – Hans.
- Create a scenario to bring out young Hans students on the streets of China, demanding justice.
- A major event in the west, hurting Chinese sentiments or Chinese national pride would do the trick(surely, not as severe action as the 1999 bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, which brought out millions on the Chinese streets).
- Introduce carefully planned and designed local issues before the sentiments die down and demonstrators show signs of weariness.
- The mass moments are not allowed in China, however, CCP loves mass hysteria against the western countries. In fact, they are looking forward to incidents that would divert the attention of Chinese citizens from exploding unemployment and a ruined economy.
For the present-day Chinese youth, Mao has always been dead, and the ideas of Confucius are not exciting. For them, real China lives east of the Heihe-Tengchong line. They are upset with the CPC for squandering national wealth on unnecessary appendages of Xinjiang and Tibet. The handling of COVID and the financial crisis it has put the country into, negative economic growth, falsified financial data, and spending national wealth on faraway countries on defunct programs like OBOR are angering the Chinese youth. The disparity in China is at an all-time high between the haves and have-nots. Citizens are waiting for a catalyst to start a moment. They take part in over 500 demonstrations across the country on a daily basis. However, CPC disperses them before these demonstrations can take the shape of a moment. These are the most important reasons which would give rise to rebellion from within and Hans would be the mainstay of this rebellion. They are just waiting for a helping hand.
BROADER STRATEGY COMING SOON…
A friend observed last week that the fifty years of ‘peace’ (relatively speaking) that followed WW2 was an historic anomaly. Which reminded me of an article in The Atlantic a couple of decades ago. The author stated that the end of the Cold War wasn’t a fairytale happy ending; the world was going to become more dangerous, not less.
In years to come, he said, we might well look back on the Cold War with nostalgia for the (again relative) calm of those times.
If just half of the scenario you lay out here comes to fruition, hell, the Cold War will look like a sunny Christmas picnic.
Thank you so much, Gregory, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. You are so right. The cold war period was a time of relative peace, but not today. If you read some of my other articles, especially the WWIII series, you would be surprised that Nazis look like kids in front of China.
With those ethnic groups jammed together, an explosion is inevitable. When China crashes so will the world economy.
Thank you for liking my post!
Thank you so much, Alan, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. The world economy is already crashing, post-COVID it would be worst. We have to cure the disease. Everyone knows what is the disease but no one wants to bell the cat.
Finally managed to read both your articles today. Very well researched. My opinion is that the Corona virus is the trigger that has directly affected all nations across the globe and triggered anti China sentiments. Number of lives lost and economic crises and unemployment due to the pandemic has brought together all nations on a common anti China platform like never before. The bloody nose given by India in the Galwan valley has sent a message across to the world that China is not as big a bully as is being made out . This will embolden some small countries like Taiwan and also Tibet to start working on their anti China agenda.
Thank you so much, Yogesh, for stopping by and sharing your immense experience. You are correct in your analysis, Coronavirus is the catalyst which would unite the world against the evil axis of China-Pakistan-N Korea.
War is almost a certainty with China, our assessment at Insightful Geophysics is that it would happen within the next 2 years. Post that, we would see a very different China in the next 5 years time period.
Read again today , thnx to share this lovely post.
The ’End Game China’ series has been a hit in HK and Taiwan. After India, I am getting maximum hits from there.
Very useful article it is ☺️
Thank you so much for stopping by.
Most welcome 🤗 please follow me back 🤗🙏
Hi. I am already following your blog.
Fantastic post Sandeep. I plan to read all your China related posts. The biggest internal challenge they have the one child policy which has made several generations go without cousins, aunts and uncles, nieces and nephews. It’s socially not sustainable because human beings are social animals. It can be implemented for a short time period as a way to curb population growth at best. Great insights 🙏🙏.
Thank you so much, Bindu, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. You would be surprised to know that after India and the U.S. my articles are read maximum in Hong Kong and Taiwan. There is a lot of resentment against Xi Jinping and his policies, within China. Eventually, those dissenting voices would surface and undo CCP. You are very correct that their one-child policy has affected them psychologically. The generation of single-child is very fragile since they were prized possession for the parents. Eagerly waiting for your feedback on other articles.
Am so sorry 😯 this is my mistake 😯😁😁
Your posts are very informative. Fantastic job!
Thank you so much, Sharda, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.
Do read my latest article:
I just started using Twitter: @InsightGL
Check it out. Warm regards.
very informative article! thanks for sharing this immensely useful post with us, have a great day!
Follow @everythingtips for tips and recommendations if interested☺️It would mean a lot to me🥺🤍
Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. Sure why not. I will check it out.
Following your site now.
thank you very much! have a great day🤍
Best part of article is brevity. Future likelihood articulated possibly in best way one could think. Thanks a lot for insight.
Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. I am glad that you have liked it.
Bonjour ou bonsoir mon ami
Bonjour mon amie ami
Je pense que cette journée sera illuminée de soleil
Je viens te souhaiter une belle journée
Sous une mélodie chanter par les oiseaux
Journée de bonheur ou rien ne viendra te perturber
Cette journée sera de beauté
Bonsoir Amie AMI
Pour cette nuit
Je te souhaite une nuit de repos bien méritée
Remplit de rèves flatteurs
Des rèves que toi seule à le secret de bien gardé
Sache que certains reves peuvent devenir réalité
Que cette journée et soirée te soit des plus agréables
Bisous amicales Bernard
Thank you so much, Bernard, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. Always a pleasure.
Thanks for your share and no doubt that you did lots of work on your article.
Some of your arguments are universal phenomena in the countries. So could you update it with more supporting data historically and nation worldwidely
Thank you so much, Frank, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.
Sure, I will do that in times to come. I have a strategy that will be disclosed in my articles.