2025 – END GAME CHINA – WAR A CERTAINTY – PART 2

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HOW TO DEAL WITH A TYRANT

The war with China is a certainty. Whether it would be with India or any other country in the South China Sea, only time would tell. However, since the initiative has been taken by China, India should not disappoint them, else they would keep coming back like a chronic disease(and China is well known for spreading diseases).

To deal with China we will consider these three principles of German-Austrian politician and statesman, Prince Klemens Wenzel von Metternich:

Prince Klemens Wenzel von Metternich: Courtesy Wikimedia
  • Compromise is the easy refuge of irresolute or unprincipled men. A nation’s survival is not a matter of compromise.
  • Weaker states can ill-afford merely to react to events; they must also try to initiate them.
  • We must rely for the execution of our plans on ourselves alone and on such means as we possess.

Keeping the above principles in mind the war should be fought by India and India alone, without compromising, and with a doxastic commitment on two fronts:

  • Non-Military
  • Military

NON-MILITARY FRONT

Non-military fronts would primarily be ’Economic War’, and it should start immediately. China takes excessive pride in its economic achievements(forgetting that most of it was due to the extraordinary interest shown by the United States). The Communist Party of China’s(CPC) hold over its populace is through its economic might. If that economic might disappears CPC would be toothless. So hit where it hurts the most. The Economic War would be assisted by these three components:

  • Asymmetric War: Asymmetric warfare consist of nuclear, chemical, biological, economical, information operations, operational concepts, terrorism, etc. However, India should consider only
    • Disinformation and Propaganda
    • Disruption of Chinese Operations
    • Psychological war
  • Technological and Biological War
  • Diplomatic War

ECONOMIC WARFARE

In the late 19th century East India Company supplied slow poison, opium to China to secure Hong Kong. Ten million Indian farmers were stuck in the production of high-quality opium. The price peasants received for their opium did not even cover the cost of growing it. Two centuries later in the role reversal Chinese have put Indians on the slow poison of cheap imports. It is understandable that they supply India with high-tech machinery and components, however, they also supply India with fertilizers, humidifiers, medical masks, liquid soaps, toothpicks, God statues, etc, which could be easily produced in India. In the last three decades, Indian manufacturers have become traders. Planners and leaders remained in policy paralysis, while China kept eating into India’s manufacturing base. China’s posturing in Ladakh should be seen as, a blessing in disguise, which has pulled India out of its slumber, and complacency.

’Metternich’ states that a weaker state should take initiative rather than react to a stronger state. Economically and militarily, China has an edge over India. Therefore India should take initiative, make a list of punitive actions, that hurt the Chinese economy and limit the damage to the Indian economy. Following shortcomings of China can be exploited:

  • More than 100 Chinese firms have a presence in India. 
  • Chinese SOEs(State-Owned Enterprises) have bagged huge projects in India. The CPC gets it’s power from these SOEs. The SOEs should be thoroughly investigated, harassed, and eventually disallowed on security grounds. 
  • The Chinese economy’s dependence on exports was 19.5% of GDP in 2018. That is a huge percentage to harass China.
  • The Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) has finalized a list of 3,000 products that can easily be made in India, reducing the Chinese imports by $13 billion, by December 2021. However, 30% of Indian imports are low tech products. India should develop a strategy to produce these products within the country.
  • India underutilizes it’s Steel, Electronics, and Chemical industry. These can also be ramped up with a roadmap for the next 5-10 years. 
  • China has a  Foreign Investment Negative List which has 13 sectors, and foreign companies have restricted entry in there. Compared to this India has a limited list. India seriously needs to have a relook at this list.
  • The Bureau of Indian Standards is finalizing tougher norms for at least 370 products to ensure items that can be locally produced and not imported. The products include chemicals, steel, electronics, heavy machinery, furniture, paper, industrial machinery, rubber articles, glass, metal articles, pharma, fertilizer, and plastic toys.
Courtesy: howmuch.net

DISINFORMATION, PROPAGANDA AND DISRUPTION

Before we go into details of how we should deal with China. The following are a few graphs showing that China has much more to lose than India in this relationship gone sour. They also indicate that there are forces within India and in the western countries who are pushing the Chinese agenda through Propaganda and disinformation, depicting China as a powerful, just, and indispensable nation, which has a major role in the progressive world.

Courtesy: Bloomberg
Courtesy: Bloomberg
Courtesy: Bloomberg
Courtesy: Bloomberg
Courtesy: Bloomberg

It is evidently clear that India can do without China. It would take some time, but that future looks better and safe. In addition to creating an economic roadmap within the country, India should start hurting the Chinese economy worldwide. Disinformation and Propaganda are the finest tools to spread fear and confusion in the enemy camp, be it military personnel or civilians. China has created a homegrown internet environment, where nothing enters from the outside world. The important component of this surveillance state is (details at- https://insightful.co.in/2019/01/24/chinese-information-warfare-a-threat-to-free-world):

  • Great Firewall of China
  • Great Cannon
  • Golden Shield

The disinformation or the actual information can be passed in the following ways:

  • Going past the above-mentioned impediments and corrupting the Chinese databases. Thereafter, flooding the Chinese Social Media with (dis)information against CPC and its wrongdoings.
  • The target audience for the propaganda in China should be the middle class. The deepest threat to the regime’s stability will come from them. 
  • Connecting directly with Chinese tourists & businessmen – 170 million travel annually.
  • Indoctrinate Chinese Students – 700,000 studying in foreign universities.
  • Overseas Chinese – Over 1 million Chinese reside in Africa alone, mostly conducting businesses and working on Chinese projects. Propaganda against them would adversely affect businesses and projects. Propaganda against CPC, would be carried by them when they visit home(Chinese workers are very scared in Pakistan. They have been targeted by the Taliban and BLA freedom fighters from time to time).
  • Major Importing Countries – Countries in North and Central America, Western Europe, South East Asia, and Australia should be flooded with information and propaganda against
    • Chinese government, Chinese companies and corporations through social, print, and electronic media.
    • Atrocities on Tibetans, Uighurs, Hong Kongers, and Christian missionaries.
    • Environmental damage due to Chinese practices.
    • Intellectual Property(IP) Theft.
    • Aggression in the West Philippines Sea(erstwhile South China Sea).
    • Terrorism in Myanmar and Indian states of J&K, Assam and Nagaland.
    • Missile and nuclear proliferation.
    • Threat of Xi Jinping’s ’Chinese Dream’ of a return to global greatness.
  • India and other free world countries should spread information/disinformation in the Chinese mainland with the help of willing nations(TV and radio stations dedicated to China in those countries). This would give rise to unrest, demonstrations and uprising in China. Topic should be:
    • End of cheap Chinese labor
    • Economic slowdown
    • High unemployment due to jobs shifting to India, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia
    • Poorly planned government investment decisions
    • Poor execution of schemes, locally and internationally
    • Aging population
    • Rising health costs
    • Compare Xi Jinping’s OBOR to Mao Zedong’s Great Leap Forward

END OF CHINESE ECONOMIC HOME RUN

Alexis de Tocqueville

19th-century French political scientist Alexis de Tocqueville’s ’The Old Regime’, and the ’French Revolution’ are very popular books amongst Chinese leaders. ’The Tocqueville Paradox’ observes: ”the reforms that a weakened dictatorship pursues have a tendency to trigger a revolution that eventually topples the reformist dictatorship itself”. During the long period of competition of the Cold War, the rigidity of the Soviet Union and its leaders became the most valuable tool for the United States. The Kremlin continued with its failed strategies, clinging to a waning economic system, continuing a disastrous arms race, and retaining an unaffordable global empire, rather than acknowledge the losses. Xi Jinping’s regime is similarly restrained by the rigidities of their own system and therefore limited in their ability to correct policy mistakes. Xi’s empire is also spreading wide and thin, weakening the core thought process of Deng Xiaoping. Xi knows that as societies become complex with more and more cutting edge sophistication in them, and more and more specialization, they become increasingly vulnerable to collapse. That is the reason Xi would have policy paralysis and no option but to become more rigid. He has reversed Deng’s political reforms that separated the party and the state. Xi Jinping’s dictatorship is staring at ’The Tocqueville Paradox’. The damage to Xi’s authority caused by further missteps would also embolden his rivals, especially Premier Li Keqiang and the Politburo members Wang Yang and Hu Chunhua. It would be interesting to note, what brings down Xi first, external or internal forces. 

PART 3 Coming Soon

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139 thoughts

  1. Wonderful action-steps here, Sandomina! Do you see signs that any of the nations impacted by China’s tactics are starting to counteract CCP’s efforts?

    1. Thank you so much, D’Nanda, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. There is no doubt that a lot of countries are on the edge, but they all want some other country to take a lead. Hopefully, India should provide them that leaders. However, the most important thing which is emerging is the discontent emerging from within CCP and PLA, especially the veterans. I had declared in Jun that brave Indian soldiers had killed 111 ChiComs before doing supreme sacrifice. That news has now been confirmed by Chinese veterans and media. The Veterans and the families are very upset that China didn’t even acknowledge the poor soldier’s sacrifice, forget about honoring them.

      1. I hope we pay heed to India’s leadership in this regard. I also hope we will in some way acknowledge sacrifices that have been made.

  2. Well presented. Indian people also should cooperate and buy Indian goods and with Modi government on war.

  3. Well written. Am sure rigidity, policy paralysis and rivalry will lead to collapse of their Nation.

    My guess is both Xi and Trump are reaching an end and they will rattle the world before they exit.

    1. Xi is especially running out of ideas. His radical ideas are failing one by one. The most important thing which is emerging is the discontent emerging from within CCP and PLA, especially the veterans. I had declared in Jun that brave Indian soldiers had killed 111 ChiComs before doing supreme sacrifice. That news has now been confirmed by Chinese veterans and media. The Veterans and the families are very upset that China didn’t even acknowledge the poor soldier’s sacrifice, forget about honoring them.
      Xi is really in a huddle.
      Thank you so much for stopping by. Highly appreciate it.

  4. A nice that comprehensively covers broad actions India as Govt and people’s participation in private sectors.
    India also should openly announce it’s support to Tibetians, Taiwan, and support SE Asian countries for their legitimate claims in Spately & Paracel islands as per UN arbitration that China doesn’t agree with. China never hesitate in not supporting India’s cause international fora, e g. declaration of Hafis Syed as terrorist in UN. China only promotes our enemy country Pakistan. Although Pakistan as a rogue state stands nowhere close to India but China always supports Pakistan’s membership to all fora where India is included. It misuses it’s Veto powers against India.
    Before China’s reinstated two children policy start yielding results in next 15 to 20 years, world powers must unite against to unsettle China in it’s nefarious Expansionist dreams that has disputes with it’s all 21 neighbors & littorals surrounding China.
    All countries of the world must insist on fair investigation of Wuhan Virus to which China is refusing. If China fails to cooperate then resolution be taken up in UN to freeze return of loans extended by China to world’s countries so that China cannot further it’s strategic trapping of Nations of the world. It’s BRI will automatically comes to halt.

    1. China openly states: ”Pakistan is our Israel”. That means what the US did in the Middle East we did in South Asia. Unfortunately for Xi, the most important thing which is emerging is the discontent emerging from within CCP and PLA, especially the veterans. I had declared in Jun that brave Indian soldiers had killed 111 ChiComs before doing supreme sacrifice. That news has now been confirmed by Chinese veterans and media. The Veterans and the families are very upset that China didn’t even acknowledge the poor soldier’s sacrifice, forget about honoring them.
      Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your immense experience.

  5. Excellent. Some of these steps have already been initiated. So many ppl were cynical about the efficacy if abandoning Chinese apps. But the Chinese protests about the ban by India show it has hurt them.

    1. It indeed hurts them. It is estimated that the TikTok itself would take a hit of $6 billion in future sales. Xi is also min huddle. The most important thing which is emerging is the discontent emerging from within CCP and PLA, especially the veterans. I had declared in Jun that brave Indian soldiers had killed 111 ChiComs before doing supreme sacrifice. That news has now been confirmed by Chinese veterans and media. The Veterans and the families are very upset that China didn’t even acknowledge the poor soldier’s sacrifice, forget about honoring them.
      Thank you so much for stopping by.

  6. Insightful as ever. Hope india and the rest of the world are able to evolve a coordinated approach.

    1. Frankly speaking, every other country is looking at India, not the US, for leadership today. Xi is in a big huddle. The most important thing which is emerging is the discontent emerging from within CCP and PLA, especially the veterans. I had declared in Jun that brave Indian soldiers had killed 111 ChiComs before doing supreme sacrifice. That news has now been confirmed by Chinese veterans and media. The Veterans and the families are very upset that China didn’t even acknowledge the poor soldier’s sacrifice, forget about honoring them.
      Thank you so much for stopping by.

  7. From the government’s POV, we ought to take a close look at anti-dumping laws and apply them ruthlessly when it comes to China. This is within the scope of WTO ambit.

    1. Absolutely. Worst comes to worst, you can declare China a hostile nation, thereafter any country can take any decision in their own interest. Thank you so much for stopping by.

  8. Nicely articulated chinks in the Chinese Armour. We need a concerted effort to develop focused lines of attack through psy ops and disinformation. However, similar options are available to the adversary also, it is a strategic game and the better player with a better plan and execution skills will emerge successful…..

    1. Absolutely, Atul. We have to fire on all cylinders together. The effect would be so spectacular what wouldn’t have ever expected. The most important thing which is emerging is the discontent brewing within CCP and PLA, especially the veterans. I had declared in Jun that brave Indian soldiers had killed 111 ChiComs before doing supreme sacrifice. That news has now been confirmed by Chinese veterans and media. The Veterans and the families are very upset that China didn’t even acknowledge the poor soldier’s sacrifice, forget about honoring them.

  9. Well articulated. However these strategies could be drawn from short term to Long term. Today what we need is a coordinated efforts. Like Taiwan should declare themselves independent and all democratic nations immediately recognize it and Taiwan should be inducted in UN. Secondly, These countries should also recognize the Tibetan Government in Exile.

    1. You are absolutely correct. Good planning always ensures better results.
      I had declared in Jun that brave Indian soldiers had killed 111 ChiComs before doing supreme sacrifice. That news has now been confirmed by Chinese veterans and media. The Veterans and the families are very upset that China didn’t even acknowledge the poor soldier’s sacrifice, forget about honoring them. India not only declared the numbers but gave them state funeral as well as honors deserved by the braves.

  10. Superb points, very clearly illustrated.

    This regime has thrived on malice, propaganda and lies through the centuries. We cannot stoop that low but we can certainly launch anti-propaganda propaganda. We have used loud speakers to great effect in that very region once, use the same strategy across the place now.

    The military will do what it must. But outside that theater, the world and even the majority Indian population have a deep-rooted fear of China’s entrenchment and indispensablilty in our lives today. The Chinese media keeps bleating about 62 and threatening a repeat of it. But there was a 67 too. And before that, they have been routed by others as well. And a lot more decades have passed since then. They are really not as fantastic as they have lead the world to believe. But they hide their dirt well do their lies better. These facts must be brought back into global consciousness and active memory again. Their lies must be urgently dispelled. You are absolutely spot-on in suggesting widespread propaganda and mass dissemination of information as a way forward.

    All of this and boycotting China-made thingies will turn the tables. But… we also need to make the India-made thigammy worth banning imports, while at it. We have the capability and resources. We certainly have the brains. But will our politics and redtape allow a progressive and meritorious ethic to prosper? Quality and pursuit of excellence are crucial to self reliance and sustainability at every level – personal and national. Will our bigoted babudom and medieval minded kurta-raj allow it?

    1. You are bang on. We have to rise above mediocrity. The corporate world, SME’s, and the citizens have the capability and capacity but the Babus keep pulling them down and polity is so entrenched in their number gave that they can’t see beyond their nose.
      On the other hand, Xi is in a huddle. The most important thing which is emerging is the discontent brewing within CCP and PLA, especially the veterans. I had declared in Jun that brave Indian soldiers had killed 111 ChiComs before doing supreme sacrifice. That news has now been confirmed by Chinese veterans and media. The Veterans and the families are very upset that China didn’t even acknowledge the poor soldier’s sacrifice, forget about honoring them.
      Thank you so much for stopping by.

      1. The facts are beyond shocking. I really hope people see things as they are. And petty politics will make ‘some’ room for pragmatic and necessary action.
        Waiting for Part III.

  11. In a globalised and interconnected world, no single nation can aspire to become a superpower by trampling on dreams and aspirations of other nations. Any coercive, hegemonistic or unethical action is bound to have a suitable, timely and justified response. Lot of responsibilities rest on shoulders of such powerful nations, which must be handled by them with care, caution and maturity, to remain meaningful and respected.

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.
      Time for Xi is nearing. He is in a big huddle. The most important thing which is emerging is the discontent emerging from within CCP and PLA, especially the veterans. I had declared in Jun that brave Indian soldiers had killed 111 ChiComs before doing supreme sacrifice. That news has now been confirmed by Chinese veterans and media. The Veterans and the families are very upset that China didn’t even acknowledge the poor soldier’s sacrifice, forget about honoring them.

  12. Sandomina…Very well researched and written, as usual, something we have begun to expect from you. A few thoughts from the Electronics Industry perspective. Most of the erstwhile pioneers of Electronics, like Japan, US, some European countries, have all outsourced production, design & manufacturing to China. China is the largest supplier to all major Electronic manufacturing companies around the world. The COVID pandemic woke many of them from their slumber as they look for alternate supply chains. Unfortunately in India, we do not still have an ecosystem for Electronic component manufacturing. Even the basic components like ICs, capacitors, resistors etc are imported. We should look at a stable policy and encouragement for investing in this area so that over a period of time we reduce our dependency on China.

    1. Thank you so much, Shailesh for stopping by and sharing your immense experience in various fields. It is indeed a sorry state in India and other parts of the world(who have given up despite being a leader). We have not done any R&D especially in ICs and other specialized electronics. Our industry went into software because that is a low lying fruit. Specialized electronics takes years of research, development, and huge budgets. In fact despite having one of the largest pools of the AI workers we are a laggard in that field. We are almost a decade behind other leaders in the field. We need to create an ecosystem and break the red tape, artificially created by bureaucracy.

  13. There is only one aspect of all this that I don’t like, and that is the Chinese families that have lived abroad for generations, either because they had to flee from China or couldn’t bear living there. Why should these people, who only wish to live their small quiet lives be targeted and harassed?

    1. Thank you so much, Stella, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. You are absolutely correct those Chinese who have chosen to make other countries part of their lives, should not be targeted. What I meant was people who are still Chinese citizens.

  14. Very well articulated and insightful ever, Sandeep!It has to be collective& well coordinated effort by India and other like-minded countries to strongly fight against the illegal acts of China!The effect of the coordination is seen on the ground but the worst part is you can’t believe in China’s actions!It might be a trap leading to yet another mischief as it has variety of options to carry out its misadventures!We should be prepared to anticipate & neutralize them!

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. You are absolutely correct in not believing in ChiComs. In fact, they also just realized that they are losing credibility at the lightening speed. They also realized that they were supposed to be subjugating India, instead, India is emerging as a leader. Other countries might take a cue from India and start banning small things like Apps that could hurt them badly. An app like TikTok would take a hit of $6 billion in future earnings.
      However, Xi is in a huddle. The most important thing which is emerging is the discontent emerging from within CCP and PLA, especially the veterans. I had declared in Jun that brave Indian soldiers had killed 111 ChiComs before doing supreme sacrifice. That news has now been confirmed by Chinese veterans and media. The Veterans and the families are very upset that China didn’t even acknowledge the poor soldier’s sacrifice, forget about honoring them.

  15. Well analysed Sir. As it appears, many countries are affected by their imposition of ideas. Logic has to be forced into their heads…… earlier the better.

    1. Thank you so much, Rajiv, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. You are bang on in your assessment.

  16. Your write-up is on dot. What China is up to and what it wants by pursuing her policy of an expansionist – just gobbling what it can in her neighborhood without exception; both land and ocean regions; In S. China sea, China is claiming every small islands or creating artificial islands and occupying just putting in jeopardy the free trade internationally. This is what China is doing. they want to claim every part they lay their hands on as theirs. This is dangerous portent for the entire world.

    The sooner the world at large realises the true intention of China. China could have behaved as a matured country who had commercial relationship. The imports and exports are done based on mutual trust and nothing can work out if China goes on warpath with every country. I appreciate the rise of China’s rise economically but that aspiration enhanced its ambition to have everything for themselves with impunity.

    India has never aspired for any territory of any country. The land won in 1965 and 1971 wars was returned to Pak including its soldiers taken as POWs and agreement signed (Shima agreement) but agreements entered with China remain paper oriented. Globally, if any country has to grow, it is important that it does not have its own ax to grind. It will have to think about others with whom it conducts business. it is not that China can do business as usual but at the same time occupying other countries’ land!

    Those countries who coveted other’s lands and browbeat the weak countries cannot do so indefinitely. Somewhere down the line such countries will have to stop. It cannot be that although China has influence over African countries or in our immediate neighborhood.

    Your assessment is on dot and I appreciate it.
    .

    1. Thank you so much, Harbans, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It is indeed a pleasure to have you over.
      We should neither believe China nor take any of their actions as truthful.
      I am sure this feeling is not only in India but the world over. We should take the initiative and bring down this demon before it does any more damage to the world.

      1. Yes the entire world is really fed up from the antics of China. The Chinese want to get something through business deals may these be through honest means or through deception because Chinese are past masters in these..

      2. Deceptions do not work in modern diplomacy. China can use Sun Tzu and their other ancient trickery within China, but not with other mature nations. Tough they got away with it for a long time… But not anymore. Within the next two years, transforms would start taking place in China, that is my estimation.

      3. Truth prevails. They are deceptive because of their fears of breaking the fabric. Let’s see what future brings for them and us too.

      4. I predicted two things in Jun
        1. A Coup is likely to happen in Pakistan. Now the news of an attempted coup is out.
        2. Indian Bravehearts killed 111 Chinese soldiers before doing the supreme sacrifice. That has been confirmed by a Chinese veteran.
        3. Now I predict Xi is on his last leg. The timeline is 2 years.
        4. India has to be ready in Arunachal Pradesh for China and terrorism via POK and Nepal.

      5. Factually true but the last one is really bad for India. We have to be prepared for any eventuality. We have to be very careful of Xi and Pak along with Nepal now. We have Modi ji now, he will take care of everything; sure enough.

      6. Yes, Harbans, you can see for yourself, at least one Pakistani and Chinese backed terror attack is occurring in J&K every week. We would be fools to fall for the Chinese withdrawal.

      7. I also am of the opinion that both these countries cannot be so considerate to our country – to let India have a breather in any way. Both have the same complex for India. Both are grabbers of our land. Both wants India to be kept occupied.

        I know what is happening in Kashmir. The political adversaries are being killed by the terrorists now. Both these countries have a common interest in this – to keep India occupied.

      8. Absolutely correct. That has been my assessment for a long time that the activities in J&K would increase. However, we have a new front opening in Nepal. We have a very porous border with them. We have to watch out for that.
        The story has just begun, and people are already celebrating our victory.

      9. In J&K, the talibans from Afghanistan would be helping the terrorist groups of Pak and thus createe problems for security forces although our forces are there to take on these terrorist groups head on.

        In Nepal, there is disturbing situation. The Chinese are creating situations and conditions which are inimical to the interests of India.

      10. As per the information, before the winter sets in China and Pak Army are up to something big. The present peace at the India-Tibet border is just a pause.

      11. Seeming so. Since Pakistan is just a colony of China now. Pak has to pay the loans and cannot refuse any bidding of China. India can take on the two adversaries head on with more of defence weaponry replenished and Ac from France too is expected soon. Lets see what happens???

      12. Harbans, COVID along with debt trap is going to kill a lot of economies. The Poor would suffer the most. 1.6 billion children are out of schools and many would not go back. 300 million children would fall below the poverty line and many would work as child laborers or child soldiers.
        This country has destroyed the world but still remains seamlessly adamant.

      13. Fact remains, all the countries are shortsighted. The treachery which is unleashed by Chinese at every step is known to every country but scarcely nobody is giving a patient thought. How come the spread of virus to other countries around the world but the cities in China are not much affected? Tomorrow there may be some other bio-agent more virulent than this one; then what? God knows the consequence of all this. Economically, all the countries around the world are worst hit. No country is immune but no country is pointing finger at the transgressor/ This way this country has become more bold and may cross all limits of decency and do something dire with impunity, then what? Nobody has got any guts to question, neither in UNO nor in other forums.

        I am of the view that to tolerate anything and everything meekly in a conflicting situation is equally bad for furtherance of national goals of any country. There are two ways of conflict resolution, firstly to take anything in order to buy peace but second one is to face the conflicting situation headon. If we take second course then we can live with honour. To live with somebody mercy is no living at all.

        i in the process of penning down a write-up on CONFLICT RESOLUTION; at home, workplace, with other countries, formal and information institutions etc.

    1. Thank you so much, Nitin, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. Always a pleasure.
      @InsightGL

  17. Very well written! The world must cease all dealings with China as it seems to have grown in power. Rather than seeing it as a blessing, China chooses to abuse that power. The only way we can stop their growth is to hit them economically. And how we hit them economically is by refusing to do any further business with them. It’s the only way we’ll be able to contain the threat. Thank you so much for keeping us updated!

    1. Thank you so much, Cherie, for stopping by. How have you been?
      China understands the language of strength and economy very well. It is the right time to slay the demon before it does more damage to the world and humanity.

      1. I’ve been doing well. Thank you for asking. And I agree! There’s no better time than now and it’s being done, although slowly.

      2. Yes, Cherie, we can see that in the South China Sea. American leadership is really rising up to the occasion. That’s Awesome!

      3. That’s right Cherie, we know that. We were ready to take them on alone, but this helping hand was a blessing in disguise.

  18. In my opinion the government needs more people like you who have indepth knowledge of China & most importantly our neighbours like Nepal,Bangladesh,Pakistan & Afghanistan. People who know about the culture & have ground knowledge about the subject. I only have one suggestion:
    instead of putting all the blame & criticizing China, which unfortunately won’t mend its treacherous ways, don’t you think that the civil service & the bureaucracy needs a reform. If China is 5 times India today its due to our own inefficiencies. Our bureaucrats came to understand the importance of an open market economy in 1991 with the balance of payments crisis whereas China, despite being communist started its reforms in 1979. To this day firms moving out of China are going to Vietnam & Indonesia but India remains a bureaucrat’s paradise. The bureacratic red tape has played an active role in all of the defense acqusition controversies, be it the bofors or the rafale.14% of the unicorns here in America are founded by Indians. Why they have to leave their own counrty for their dreams?? Don’t you think the govt & the bureacrats must stop intervening in the market & give it a free hand. I remember when I came to the US in 1986′ everyone used to say how India being a big democracy would be the next big thing with its large human capital & English speaking population but now everyone just seems to have accepted the fact that we are a sort of country which never really takes off. Today they are 5 times India & killed 20 Indians, it won’t be a surprise that tomorrow they would be 10 times India & kill 200, but how long would India continue with this risk aversive, incompetent bureaucracy, which has long withheld India’s true potential.

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.
      You are bang on in your assessment. In fact, a similar question was asked by another reader. I had covered this issue in one of my previous articles. Bureaucracy has been one of the biggest stumbling blocks in India’s progress. Politicians come and go but a bureaucrat is there in his chair forever, unaccountable to anyone.
      We Indians do not plan and act, but rather react. Even the reforms of the 90s were a reaction to a very precarious economic situation, else they also wouldn’t have taken place. There is a stark difference between Indian and Chinese politicians & bureaucrats. That is, we wield our power from keeping the masses poor and uneducated, whereas the Chinese wield their power from the wealth of State-Owned Enterprises and PLA. So we can never be China. However, the Chinese success story is a big facade and has miasmic interiors. The power, money, and success stories we see are once again limited to a handful of people. They have hugely frustrated middle classes and PLA veterans. Xi is running out of his tricks and heading for a major showdown in the next two years. The whole muscle flexing exercise is to divert the attention from those imploding issues and create an atmosphere of nationalism.

      1. For Indians authorities it has become a habit to be reactive as a state policy rather than being proactive. The mindset change will not come without systematic reforms at an appropriate level. The Red Tape and the bureaucratic impediments I feel do not match the present requirements to give positive directions to the great nation like India and present and future well being of its citizens.

      2. Politicians come and go, but the bureaucrat is there forever, unanswerable for all the failures. They have created such a system that favors them. The country is secondary to them.
        We need just simple plans but unwavering resolve to implement those plans. Most of the time we move from one reaction to another lacking any vision. That is the reason our great minds get frustrated and leave the country. They always shine in the west, where they get a conducive environment.

  19. Just wanted to let you know, Sandomina. I just saw on the news where China has made it unlawful for anyone in the entire WORLD to speak against their communist part! War is coming for sure now! People in the West won’t put up with Xi Jinping’s bullsh**! Who is he to dictate what we do in our own country 8,000 miles away? Jinping is a mental case! I mean he’s lost his ever loving mind! He needs to be stopped now!

    1. That is right, Cherie. None of us have issues with simple Chinese citizens. In fact, they could be suffering much more than one can imagine. Can you imagine, that someone is watching you 24/7, that’s so creepy? Sometimes I find that their life has been copied from George Orwell’s book, ’1984’.
      Xi Jinping is on his last leg, despite the fact he has made himself President for the life. He has taken the spectacle rise of China for granted. He is getting impatient and that would ring the death knell for China.

      1. China has put others in harm’s way and destroyed the world economy, but still remains seamlessly adamant.
        90% of the world’s children are out of schools, 1.6 billion, to be precise. 300 million would fall below the poverty line and may become child laborers or soldiers.

      2. That’s right, Cherie. You would be surprised to note that this is not their Nadir.

  20. A very well articulated and researched article encompassing all relevant issues. GoI has initiated various positive actions and in the right directions. It is a fact that the Chinese President has run out of ideas. Perhaps history will be a witness that he has dug his own grave by unnecessarily provoking the sleeping giant – India. He was NOT expecting in his rarest of dreams that India would react in this manner. The tone of China has totally changed now. Hope it will further tone down on ground too. It is a common fact that CHINA cannot bully around every time everywhere with every nation..

    1. Thank you so much, Bharat, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It is indeed a fact that China has spread itself too wide and thin. Their spectacular rise gave them the false notion that they can dictate terms to the world. Unpresidented rise in unemployment and ever-increasing debt to GDP ratio along with expenditures on failed projects like CPEC are making rival leaders and PLA impatient. It is a matter of time before they revolt against his regime. My timeline is 2 years for a major war, and 5 years for a major overhaul in the way we see China today.

  21. The Australian government probably has a list, like India’s, of Chinese imports that can be produced internally. If they don’t, they’d damn well better be working on it.

    It’s now plain that China’s sideways steps towards capitalism haven’t produced the free society that was anticipated during the 1980s. Around the same time, in Australia, our manufacturing base was allowed to degrade because it was just so much cheaper and easier to get it done in China. That would have had a fair amount of truth to it at the time; unions were much stronger at the time and union leaders were more interested in sticking it to the bosses than protecting their workers. Unions can still be problematic here but their wilder excesses have mostly disappeared.

    Apart from manufacturing, we also have to deal with China’s large holdings of land and water resources.

    It’s going to be tough but as with India, Australia has no choice. China’s dominance has to be curtailed. We have to take back the strength we have ceded to Beijing.

    1. Thank you so much, Gregory, for stopping by. Always a pleasure to read your comments.
      You have correctly pointed, it has been a collective failure at many levels. We handed the success to China on a platter, to satiate our greed.
      China has infiltrated Australian universities, churches, and even politics. Most of the mining rights in Australia are also owned by China. In India, manufacturers became traders, because profits were higher and without any labor hassles.
      However, the condition in the European Union is worst than in India and Australia. Many smaller countries are neck-deep in Chinese debt.
      It is high time we safeguard our countries.

  22. I haven’t come across ‘The Tocqueville Paradox’ earlier. That was a fantastic read. I saw the same article on two other websites too. You are getting popular.

  23. Very detailed and informative! You must have done a lot of research to write such an amazing blog!! The facts are truly shocking. I was very proud when India banned the Chinese apps. It’s shows that India has developed enough to stand on its feet without Chinese companies. It’s a great step taken by our government. It’s also non-violent which shows that India is still on the path of ahimsa carved by Gandhi Ji! Really nice post!:)

    1. Thank you so much, Aahana, for stopping and sharing your thoughts. I am glad that you have liked it. India is still not there 100%, but such upheavals give us an inner strength that we take a leap of faith. We need a 10-15 years roadmap and work on it relentlessly so that we are proactive and do not react to these situations. The first step should be to do away with 30% low tech imports from China.

      1. I agree!!! India took a major step by making a small yet significant change! I’m most amazed by how history is repeating itself. The first step is always the most difficult, so many people were making money on tik tok, ordering clothes from apps like Romwe and the government still banned them. Even the people didn’t cause much of an uprising against this action. Such is the unity and power of Indians 🤩

      2. Yes, it is the 1990s reforms moment repeat. We have to snatch this opportunity and act upon it. Just talks won’t do. Once things cool down, it is a general tendency to get back to our old habits. If we lose this opportunity then we are stuck in mediocrity forever.

      3. True! A bigger step must be taken to eliminate the competition and this time many more powerful countries are in favour of India rather than China

      4. Correct. All the countries are with India. I hope that the Indian bureaucracy is onboard at least this time. Till now all the businesses which have moved out of China, most of them have gone to Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia.

  24. Very nice article. China is a major exporter for many countries. In other words many countries depend on Chinese products including India. India cannot ignore Chinese items overnight and develop business. It’ll take at least 3 to 4 years to develop ourselves. Till such time it’ll just be a slogan that we can weaken China by boycotting its products.

    1. Absolutely correct. We need a 10-year roadmap so that we be proactive and stop reacting to such situations. Yes as of now we depend on 70% of high tech imports. So, a good thing would be to start with 30% of the low tech imports, build our capabilities and capacities, before we take the next step.
      Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.

  25. First of all, thank you for bringing up the principles of Prince KW von Metternich.

    As far as I could see through these global shifts, the third principle has a critical role to play in finding the solution, especially in stability of the economic frontier – the true meaning of independence applicable to any nation – “on such means as we possess”, for it is crucial to reassess what “we possess” truly in contrast to what “we own”.

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your immense experience. You are spot-on in your assessment. Sorry, I got busy with my latest article, which should be published either today or tomorrow.
      Warm regards.

  26. A great continuity of part1..
    The connecting thread between 2 parts ensured I could easily recap what I read in previous part.. The analysis around hitting by economy war is well illustrated.

    Data around CN presence in India region with numbers is real alarming.. Display of accurate import export pie chart is very impressive.

    Overall a great curiosity filled article with teaser of part 3.. Awaiting part 3..

    Great article. Worth reading line by line.. 🙏

    1. Thank you so much, Sanjeev, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. Sorry for the delay in reply, I was busy with my latest article, which should be published either today or tomorrow.

  27. I agree with you. I hate politics though I am interested. I am also aware of what China is doing in the South China Sea but all I can do is hope and pray this will stop or else yes it may end up in war someday so sad…

    1. It is the bitter reality we have to face. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.

  28. As always, very interesting. My concern is, as always, if you chop off the head of the dragon, will two take it’s place? There is always going to be someone else, “sleeping” that, when awakened, becomes more formidable. Perhaps not just one country but a combination of countries binding themselves in secret and poised to pounce when all is said and done. I trust no one. Perhaps, even China with all this blowing in the wind, will have already prepared herself for this.

    1. Thank you so much, Jolie, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It would be indeed a Herculean task to unseat China. That is the reason, the fear is any skirmish might blow into a full-fledged war.

  29. Article has been wonderfully written. I pulled out these words, “Weaker states can ill-afford merely to react to events; they must also try to initiate them.” I remember the Revolutionary War Hero, Marion Marion, who was also known as The Swamp Fox, serving from 1775-1783. Marion used irregular methods of warfare, aka guerrilla warfare, and maneuver warfare, which helped to defeat the British forces. He rose to the rank of Lt. Colonel. Marion’s tactics must not be dismissed by a force that is outmanned, and out financed, with is something that India should embrace.

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.
      It was wonderful to read, about Marion Marion.
      India is a much stronger state today with one of the largest armed forces in the world. China is aware of it. They are banking on their superior technology, however, they are forgetting the man behind the machine, a prodigy of the one-child policy, who has been brought up in pusillanimous ways. He/she is supposed to be looking after 6 senior citizens, 2 parents and 4 grandparents. 30% of PLA forces suffer from mental illnesses. Their veterans live in poor conditions and get meager post-retirement benefits.

      1. Thanks for your reply. I must, however, correct “Marion Marion,” to “Francis Marion.” If you have noticed on my articles on the end times, there will be a major assault on Israel from the East. The largest force, right now, is that of China, who has also been expanding its might outside of their own borders.

      2. Ok, that’s what I was wondering. So now you see it becomes very clear. China moves into Iran. Supplies them with modern weaponry. When the hostilities break out, it would be China-Iran-Pakistan-N Korea on one side and the rest of the world on another side.

      3. At this juncture, every free country has to rise above greed and come together. If we allow China to make inroads into Iran without challenge then soon we would see a nuclear Iran. China is known for its proliferation policy through its proxies like Pakistan and N Korea.

  30. Excellent job Sandomina! I would like to add that China has silently and gradually occupied a good portion of Arunachal Pradesh also. Until recently the Indian National Flag was not allowed to be hoisted. Even though Arunachal Pradesh is very much a part of India, China objected to the visit of Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in 2019 and other such ministers in the past. The new Chinese map shows Arunachal Pradesh as a part of China. China’s atrocities are such that, in my opinion, there is not need for disinformation campaign, just letting the world including the people of China know, in truth and reality, what China has been doing in these past few decades is enough to bring about China’s downfall. As far as warfare is concerned, I wonder if China has already started the war. The world is still slow in understanding this fact. Is COVID 19 a part of a biological war? This thought looms large on my mind. Biological war is a totally bad idea for anybody as we can see the state of the world today. We have no control on when, where and how to stop it. China has added new categories to asymmetrical war, they send their own nationals into the bordering countries in such large numbers that the number of Chinese is more than the local population and these Chinese control the government ( as we have seen in Tibet and now slowly in Nepal too). Its time for China to reap what it has sown. In my belief system, there can never be good results for bad intentions. I am curious too see what is the outcome of China’s bad karma.

    1. Thank you so much, Sharda, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.
      CPC is running out of its opinions. They derive their power from the economy, and if that falters they have nothing else to promise to their populace. On the other hand, Chinese people have traded their freedom for economic development, if they are bereft of that, then might rise against the regime. That is the reason China involves itself in such projects. Most of the projects are economically not viable but they involve SOEs and provide employment to Chinese workers. SOEs are laggards of the Chinese economy. They consume 80% of the Chinese funds and contribute only 23% toward the GDP.
      Therefore China would be the last country to go for conventional war. They like and promote asymmetric war. I had written a series on it, which became an international success:

      https://insightful.co.in/2020/04/19/world-war-iii-has-begun-and-we-are-unaware

      https://insightful.co.in/2020/04/28/beware-the-war-is-getting-uglier

  31. Please read this. It will open your eyes on what’s really happening in the world
    THE SCALE OF CONFLICT

    by Abhijit Roy, minor inputs by Avi Das

    About a week ago, two aircraft carriers group, USS Ronald Reagan and the USS Nimitz, part of the US Seventh Fleet and each with their retinue of ships, sailed into the South China Sea. Both carriers at over 1000 feet long, three times the length of a football field, displacing over 100,000 tonnes and each carrying more planes than many countries have in their airforce. A third carrier, USS Theodore Roosevelt is also stationed close at hand.

    What were they off to defend? Taiwan? But why? China has laid claim on Taiwan for a long while. The US has never acted as aggressively on it before. Yet, when one connects together the above with a string of other events, an interesting picture emerges.

    Recently the US allowed the sale of 105 F35 Joint Strike Fighters to Japan. A deal which has been in the offing for a while now, but was propelled through recently. Australia had earlier committed to a 40% defence expenditure hike, spread over two decades, with all its investments aimed at containing China. On top of all this, yesterday, the UK parliament effectively shut out Chinese telecom giant Huawei from the country’s 5G projects and asked all telecom companies to uninstall Huawei equipment. Canada and US are soon to follow suit.

    All of the above would seem like war-making moves. What triggers it? What will the fight be over?

    THE HEART OF THE FUTURE

    The US had earlier stipulated that no US companies will supply chips to Huawei. Then again, on May 15, the US regulation required that any non-American chip producers, that use American chipmaking equipment must first obtain a special license to sell to Huawei. This has put Huawei’s future into a tailspin. Why? After all, China was racing towards self-sufficiency in all technological matters. Why would it be so stumped?

    At the core of this unravelling geopolitical drama, that’s changing scripts by the hour, are semi-conductors a.k.a. chips. But not just any chip. Chips which measures less than five nanometers – about the width of two strands of DNA.

    Semiconductor chips are the brains of all our electronics, from mobile phones to cars to fighter jets. The most advanced chips on the market today have billions of switches on them. The latest 3-nanometer semiconductors (N5P) being introduced by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) will “feature the world’s highest transistor density and offer the fastest performance,” per a company release. In the 1970s, semiconductors housed approximately 3000 transistors.

    AN EYE TOWARDS THE FUTURE

    Three major trends are defining the current geopolitical cold war between US and China. It pivots around the Future of Warfare.

    The FIRST trend will be the warfare of Algorithms, Deep learning, smart, self-aware systems, AI and swarms.

    These will not only be in next-generation war machines, from futuristic fighter aircraft like the FX program, that is to follow the F35, to warships, battle tanks, armoured vehicles to the equipment carried by the infantry, but will also be in drones and smart munitions, nano weapons and UAVs. All of these will be interconnected and all will be driven by automation powered by artificial intelligence.

    These will be largely remote-controlled autonomous pieces of hardware embedded with the latest software with unbelievable power to locate, identify and destroy targets with amazing precision. Predictive capabilities of AI will enable strategists to be prepared and micro adjusted all the time.

    All this is made possible using the SECOND trend. Powerful communication and logistics platforms that leverage 5G technologies for zero-latency real-time responses; that is as essential for an autonomous vehicle to avoid an accident, as it is to fire a guided missile with precision as soon as a target is located.

    Most importantly, all this hardware will have machine learning capabilities to constantly improve their performance. For instance, the latest fighter planes will be able to learn and adapt on the fly the dogfight techniques to outmanoeuvre an enemy aircraft by studying the opponent while in combat.

    This machine learning capability will be far superior to that of a human pilot. A swarm of fighter drones will be remotely controlled by a digitally dexterous soldier or even AI. The armoured vehicle, taking on terrorists, will be unmanned and remotely operated. The superior ability to visualize the battlefield, enemy logistics, decide and respond will all be AI-driven and instantaneous. This is at the heart of the US’ $732 billion defence budget which is carrying out a digital transformation of the forces.

    This requires an ability to transmit and receive a tremendous amount of data, process it, correlate, calculate, coordinate and instruct at the speed of light…almost.

    The brain of this entire system is the mighty microchip – this is the THIRD and most critical piece of the entire system.

    Data may be the “oil” of the information economy, but without microelectronics, those data are just assortments of zeros and ones. Semiconductors, silicon-based “translators” of data into information, are essential to the 21st-century economy and warfare, making connectivity and all the resulting “information-related” innovations possible.

    The artificial intelligence framework can be broadly characterized into three layers.

    – The infrastructure layer includes the core AI chips and big data that support the sensing and cognitive computational capabilities of the technology layer.
    – The technology layer sits on top of this. Which has machine learning, deep learning, AI platform, speech recognition, image recognition, biometric etc.
    – The topmost layer is the application layer, which technologies in the second layer, uses to develop robotics, autonomous driving, business intelligence, smart factory, personal assistance, customer service, etc.

    AI chips form the brain of the AI technology chain and are central to the processing of AI algorithms, particularly for deep neural networks (DNN). The U.S. leads the world in leading-edge semiconductor research, design and manufacturing. The Semiconductor Industry Association reckons that US companies accounted for about half of the $469 billion global semiconductor market in 2018.

    This is China’s Achilles heel. It must depend on the US and Taiwan for semiconductors, and the US President Donald Trump is pinching China where it hurts the most.

    THE MAGIC POTION

    Ultimately, semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME), not chips, is key. SME is the “primary and most complex input” in the construction of fabrication facilities, accounting for about 80 per cent of construction costs. Today, three countries claim 90 per cent of SME global market share: the U.S., Japan and the Netherlands.

    Late last year, the US after two years of pressure campaign persuaded the Netherlands government to block a $150 million sale of the most advanced Dutch chip manufacturing technology to a Chinese company.

    Chip manufacturing is a highly capital-intensive operation and technological redundancies are extremely rapid. The industry is divided among “Foundries,” which make the heavy capital investments as manufacturers, and “Fab-less” semiconductor companies that design chips, but do not manufacture them, and avoid the high cost of fabrication facilities. The US leads the design while foundries are in and around the South China sea, in Korea, Japan and Taiwan. Currently, China imports over USD 200 billion worth of IC chips from the US, almost matching its total imports of crude oil.

    THE MAGIC POTION MAKERS

    TSMC, the US$38 billion Taiwanese company produces more than half the world’s annual supply of chips. The industry has been a diplomatic asset for Taiwan, entrenching the US and Chinese interests in Taiwan’s stability and autonomy. Taiwan has a dominant role in the international supply chain for these tiny but strategically vital products. Together with South Korea’s Samsung and Intel from the US, Taiwan is at the cutting edge of semiconductor technology.

    All this while Taiwan and TSMC have avoided being caught in the Sino-US trade wars. But not this time, as the US President, slapped a ban on any company, anywhere in the world, which uses US technology from exporting to China. Being a foundry, TSMC relies on US designs and SME to make the semi-conductors and therefore is prevented from exporting to Huawei. This effectively cripples the Chinese telecom company from developing and servicing 5G technologies, because the TSMC semi-conductor is the brain of the technology that powers 5G. The earlier ban was only on US companies which had helped TSMC duck the regulations and continue to do business with Huawei and China.

    Taiwan’s semiconductor industry has deep links to the United States. It took off in the 1970s and 1980s when Taipei was looking for a way out of an economic slump caused by the 1973 oil shock. A combination of industry policy and unlikely personal connections with leaders in the Radio Corporation of America saw a generation of Taiwanese engineers trained in the United States. Today, almost all major US technology firms have some presence in Taiwan. The US sources its most advanced chips for military hardware from TSMC. Taiwan is also the second-largest market for US semiconductor equipment.

    A FEW NANO-METERS TOO FAR

    A US Congressional Research Service report updated on November 2019 raised alarms around China’s ambition to dominate AI, and the semi-conductor industry – two vital pieces that will give it military and economic supremacy. The US has been aware of this strategy and has continuously tried to stop China from getting ahead in this field. In September 2017 President Trump, following the recommendation of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), had blocked a Chinese firm from acquiring Lattice Semiconductor, a US company that manufactures chips that are a critical design element for AI technology.

    The Future of Warfare will be an Algorithmic War, and the US is currently holding the aces by controlling the semiconductor industry. All three major global powers are readying themselves to dominate Artificial Intelligence, which will power the next-gen combat. On July 20, 2017, the Chinese government released a strategy to take the lead in AI by 2030. Less than two months later Vladimir Putin publicly announced Russia’s intent to pursue AI technologies, stating, “Whoever becomes the leader in this field will rule the world.” The US National Defense Strategy, released in January 2018, identified artificial intelligence as one of the key technologies that will “ensure the United States will be able to fight and win the wars of the future.”

    As of now, China lags woefully in the semiconductor business, despite announcing plans worth billions of dollars. This business has a highly complex supply chain, cutting edge proprietary technologies, is extremely capital intensive and burdened with rapid redundancies. Vital pieces of this supply chain are controlled by the US, such as the chip manufacturing machines, the design, while Taiwan has a dominance in the foundry i.e. the putting together of the chip itself.

    Countries like Japan and Korea also have capabilities in this business. All countries are either hostile or have uneasy relationships with China. The Chinese market is almost entirely dependent on foreign firms for microchips. Domestic production accounts for just nine per cent of China’s semiconductor consumption – leaving 91 per cent of China’s demand to be satisfied by imports, 56.2 per cent from the United States. Chinese chips have so far been able to achieve 14 nanometers while TSMC is currently at 5 nanometers going on to 3 nanometers. Thus giving it an unbeatable technological edge over China.

    MAKE OR BREAK

    Yet semiconductor technology is vital to China’s manufacturing base and to China’s top exports that include smartphones, personal computers, and smart televisions. China’s continued dependence on US and foreign semiconductor technology has been a catalyst for Beijing to double down on policies to promote homegrown companies. China is throwing $150 billion to create its own capabilities in semiconductors. However, the issue is not money; but access to technology, talent and most importantly the design and machines that make the chip.

    Some 30 new semiconductor facilities are either under construction or in the planning stages in China – more than any other country in the world. But even the most sophisticated fabricator in China must rely on licensing chip designs from foreign firms and on high-volume commercial production lines outside of China. And foreign firms still dominate niches in China’s semiconductor market such as microchip packaging and testing, semiconductor equipment, memory and AI chips, as well as contract microchip making.
    However, this grand plan to build its own design and fab plants will take at least three to five years. Till then it has no option but to depend on the US and Taiwan.

    While earlier, Taiwan used to be just an ideological matter, it is now imperative for China to control! China needs the foundaries. Given the fact that the US has already agreed to ‘One China’, could China make a move on Taiwan, the way it has on HK, and present the world with a fait accompli? That might have well been a plan. A plan, which the US possibly came to know about. A plan for which it was sailing in its Aircraft Carrier but had to be recalled on account of a COVID outbreak. A plan for which China kept its barrels dry from COVID. A plan to stymie which, the US flew in its B1B bombers over the South China sea. It was possibly to distract China, from carrying out that plan, that a distraction was created at Ladakh, which set off tones of a second front for it and it had to divert resources to Tibet. Soon the typhoon season will set in. All hopes of a quick dash will be lost.

    EPILOGUE

    The US-China trade war is an outward exhibition of a far deeper war to gain supremacy in the Future Wars – The Algorithmic War, that will eventually happen. And the TSMC five-nanometer chip can make the difference between which nation will be the post-Covid superpower. The three-football field long aircraft carriers are simply ringfencing TSMC & Taiwan from China; they are protecting a chip that can well sit over a few strands of hair.

    Welcome to the future.

    1. Thank you so much, Stephanie, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. That’s very kind of you.

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