WORLD WAR III – CHINA VS REST OF THE WORLD

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“Hide your strength and bide your time.”

China in 2008

“No force can shake the status of our great motherland, No force can stop the advance of the Chinese people and the Chinese nation.”

China in 2019

The above statements clearly indicate the change in the tone and the tenor of China, in just eleven years. So, is the world going to wait for another ten years to discover how is China (mis)treating the world in general, and it neighbors in particular? This should be the biggest question in the minds of strategists, across the globe. Through this article I would try to find out , how we can address this major challenge facing humanity.

THE FOUNDATION OF AN EMPIRE

Historically it has been seen that any country which has flourished, has had two essential components:

  • Outward-Looking and Inclusive Attitude
  • Innovation and Education

If for any reason, any of the above components went missing from the future designs of the empire, that empire not only collapsed but plunged into darkness.

OUTWARD-LOOKING ATTITUDE

The outward-looking attitude could be divided into three components, the militaristic activity, economic activity, or a combination of these two. Roman Empire, the Portuguese Empire, Abbasid Caliphate, Maurya Dynasty, Umayyad Caliphate, Yuan Dynasty, Qing Dynasty, Spanish Empire, Mongol Empire, and the British Empire, are some of the largest empires this world has ever seen, and they had these components embedded in their DNA.

INNOVATION AND EDUCATION 

The cultural, political, scientific, and intellectual outburst in Europe between the 14th and 17th centuries depict perhaps the most profoundly significant period in human development. The Renaissance was followed by some of the biggest empires, the world had ever seen. On the other hand, the declining Islamic Empires had no scientific base. Their education system was based on religious teachings and lacked the futuristic world view. There was another very innovative country which was about to show similar weaknesses in its systems – ‘The Middle Kingdom’.

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Ming Dynasty – Courtesy: ancient.eu

CHINA – A TURNING POINT

The Ming Dynasty was in power in China from 1368 to 1644. The Emperor was an autocratic ruler who had absolute power over all aspects of life in his Empire. At that time, Chinese technology was Superior to the rest of the world. The inventions included the magnetic compass, paper, wheelbarrow, suspension bridges, gunpowder, movable type, and the mechanical clock. During the decline of the Ming Dynasty, the Chinese withdrew from sea travel and overseas trade. They became more inward-looking. The hubris had blinded the Chinese mind and innovation had come to a standstill. At the same time, the Renaissance was blooming in the Western Europe. They were discovering and conquering other nations. World history could have been different if the Chinese had continued to be a great seafaring and outward-looking nation.

THE CHINESE ACHILLES HEEL

The present-day Chinese dispensation has a lot of similarities to the Ming Dynasty, it is autocratic, and controls the populace with the iron fist. The signs of vainglory have started emerging, which was the beginning of the end of glorious Ming Dynasty.

The aggressive and economically strong China has started threatening the free world, with its sharp power approach. It may be overconfident about its abilities, however, it is not that invincible. There are existing and emerging weaknesses in the Chinese armor. The world is so angry with Chinese indifference that it is ready to exploit the following weaknesses to safeguard their interests:

  • Economy
  • Encirclement
  • Taiwan
  • The Indian Ocean

THE CHINESE ECONOMIC MINOTAUR

The extraordinary advancements in the Chinese power and influence are attributable to its economic progression in the last forty years. China has failed to be a responsible and dependable partner in every field, due to this reason corporates have already started moving their businesses out of China. The process is expected to accelerate post-COVID.

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China’s economy is heavily dependent upon exports. Exports are 20% of the Chinese GDP. If determined countries shave off exports by 50%, Chinese economy would go into recession. The present Chinese estimates indicate that 22 million jobs would be lost in 2020, in addition to huge pay cuts. The unemployment rate which is likely to hit 10% may get further pushed up, leading to large scale unrest amongst Chinese populace.

The economy has a direct relationship with innovation and education. Learning from the West China has continuously improved it education system and institutions. Today 5 of the Chinese universities are in top 100 universities in the world. Yearly, 5,00,000 students enroll in Chinese universities. Foreign governments could make it difficult for students to go to Chinese universities, as well as, disallow 6,67,000 Chinese students to study in the Western and Australian universities. The short-term losses may have an impact, but this would force China to look inward and restrict its scientific evolution.

China’s $4-7 trillion pet project, One Belt One Road(OBOR), could be made a death knell by hostile forces. It is estimated that as much as 80% investment in Pakistan, 50% in Myanmar and 30% in central Asia would never be recovered. China is ready to take those losses in exchange for strategic landmasses and ports. Once completed, the projects could be exploited with the help of the TalibanTurkistan Islamic Movement(TIP) and Balochistan Liberation Army(BLA) in Central Asia and Pakistan.

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OBOR has following maritime developments as part of its String of Pearls: Hambantota in Sri Lanka; Gwadar in Pakistan; Chittagong in Bangladesh; Kyaukhori in Myanmar; Kra Isthmus in Thailand; Port Victoria in the Seychelles; Mombasa in Kenya; and Djibouti. Once again Gwadar Port may see opposition from BLA militias, Kyaukhori from Rohingyas and Djibouti from al Shabaab. China would have no means to defend these bases, since they would be spread out thin and wide.

ENCIRCLEMENT

China has the largest number of neighbors in the world. The neighbors being Afghanistan, Bhutan, India, Indian territory of POJ&K, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Myanmar, Mongolia, Nepal, North Korea, Russia, Tajikistan and Vietnam. There are also maritime neighbors like Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Taiwan. China has not even a single neighbor who attached high trust value to their relationship with China. Let us consider China’s areas of trouble in these countries, and how they would be exploited.

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Afghanistan

China abhors the idea of Americans leaving Afghanistan. China is likely to set up a military base in Northern Afghanistan, since a remote region in northeastern Afghanistan is connected to the northwestern Chinese region of Xinjiang. Taliban and Turkistan Islamic Party could be used to bleed China in this region. Afghanistan could also be turned against China if the latter is painted as an exploiter of Afghani natural resources.

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Bhutan

The populace of the Himalayan Kingdom could be easily made aware of China’s nefarious designs of land grab, through social media, and public outreach. This would turn the popular mood against China and Chinese government.

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India

India has a lot of buttons to irritate and control China. Actions in Tibet; Xinjiang; Taiwan; and Vietnam, blockade in The South China Sea; and Indian Ocean Region(IOR) are more than sufficient to keep China on the toes. India can also render China’s CPEC(OBOR) project, which passes through the Indian Territory of Pakistan Occupied J&K, useless, if the hostilities breakout. In the India-China relationship, China has a lot more to lose than India, and China is aware of that reality.

 

Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan

Because of China’s policy of torture and cultural genocide targeting the Uighur Turk minorities, the Kazakh people highly resent China. Demonstrations against China are a common sight in big cities like Nur-Sultan, Shymkent and Almaty. This bitterness can be exploited to disrupt the Chinese energy dependence on Kazakhstan, as and when required.

Kyrgyzstan’s populace is aware of China’s territory grab in their country. Clashes between locals and Chinese mining workers are a regular feature. Exploitative Chinese debt, illegal Chinese workers and Kyrgyz-Chinese marriages are some of the explosive issues which can be exploited by the opposing forces. 

Tajikistan owns China $2.8 billion in debt(35.6% of GDP). It has ceded mining rights and 0.7% of it’s land to China. Growing trade imbalance and exploitation of economy by 350 Chinese companies are testing the patience of the local populace. These sentiments could be turned into a major uprising against China, in times to come. 

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Laos

Land grabbing, exploiting local businesses, hostage-taking, torture, and murders are some of the ways, Chinese companies are conducting their businesses in Laos. Locals have a huge resentment towards Chinese companies and their projects, which can be exploited at the right time.

Myanmar

The populace of Myanmar are always suspicious that China fans the flames of conflict in Naypyitaw, Northern Myanmar. China supplies these separatist groups with Chinese-made weapons and private financial support. The Myanmar populace is very aggressively opposing these Chinese designs.

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Mongolia

Mongolians are always fearful that China will eventually take over their territory. In addition to political or military takeover, they feel China will overwhelm the country with its economic activities.

897af235-d89b-469d-b23a-f5b16cc353eb-8386-00000613de35433aNepal

Anger has been erupting in Nepal against Chinese company Huawei, which has been involvement in the hacking of around 200 Nepali websites and stealing personal data. Nepal is also rife with China’s land grab stories – 6 hectares in the Bhagdare river,  4 hectares in Karnali district, 6 hectares in Sanjen river, 10 hectares in Sindhupalchowk district, and 9 hectares in Sankhuwasabha. Following areas have been merged wholly into Tibet – Jambhu Khola of Rasuwa, areas around Kamukhola, Arun river and Sumjung river. These explosive details could create trouble for Chinese activities and China-controlled Nepali regime, as and when exposed by the opposing forces. 

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North Korea

North Korea, which was once a most trusted ally, has become a liability for China. The relation is at its rock bottom. The United States, S Korea, and Japan would exploit this situation to their advantage, whether Kim Jong-un is alive or not. They would be waiting for this amphisbaena to bite back.

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Russia

Chinese and Russian bonhomie could bring trouble for China from within. Russia has encroached up Chinese territory of Nerchinsk in 1689 and Siberia in 1860. The 1904 Russo-Japanese war had claim over 20,000 Chinese civilian lives. The Soviets also invaded Manchuria and committed war crimes like Japan. The spread of this information on social media would have the right effect at the right time.

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Vietnam

Reminding Vietnamese populace of Chinese hegemony in the South China Sea and sinking of fishing vessels is more than enough to stir up passions.

Maritime Neighbors

Maritime neighbors like Brunei, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, and South Korea have huge territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea and the East China Sea.

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TAIWAN

For years, Beijing has worked to isolate Taiwan by keeping it out of international institutions,  while poaching and leaving Taiwan with only 15 nondescript states who recognize the country’s status. Today the world is busy fighting the pandemic, but the Chinese are drumming up hysteria on social media to strike Taiwan and take control. The Chinese experts, however, are aware that the world’s sentiment is against them and any misstep may boomerang. The Taiwanese piece is a very important part of China containment puzzle. The world has to take note of this, that if Taiwan falls in the Chinese hands, numerous Chinese forces, which are tied up in the South China Sea, would be free to spread their nefarious activities in the other regions of the world, where they do not go today.

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The South and the East China Sea – Courtesy: Encyclopedia Britannica

THE INDIAN OCEAN

The Indian Ocean is the most important global trade routes of the world. Over 80 percent of global seaborne trade passes through it. While China increasingly getting assertive in the region, world powers cannot afford to turn a blind eye to this emerging threat. In fact, the Indian Ocean could be the core of the undoing of China.

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Securing maritime energy shipments is a critical priority for China. Over 80 percent of Chinese maritime oil imports by sea pass through the Strait of Malacca. Therefore, this strategic waterway represents a potential risk to China, should it be unable to protect its shipping interests in the narrow strait. This is the exact reason China is pursuing OBOR in such a big way, at the expense of gullible nations. OBOR provides China a costly but alternative route to the Middle East, Central Asia, and Europe.

Chinese ‘String of Pearls’ policy has to be effectively and forcefully countered. Countries may adopt a strategy similar to China’s South China Sea strategy, that is to overwhelm the Chinese warships with swarms of fishing boats, trawlers and UCVs. Seasoned pirates can always harass Chinese merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz and Malacca Strait.

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Chinese String of Pearls – Courtesy: The Diplomat

WHERE DO WE STAND TODAY

China pursues a policy called ‘da da, tan tan’ – ‘fight fight, talk talk’. A strategy deeply embedded in the Chinese character. For China, it is very simple, if someone offers you to talk, you talk, but it doesn’t mean that you stop fighting. If the very fragmented and divided world doesn’t understand this aspect of China, then it cannot go beyond their antics.

Countering Chinese economy; increasing the cost of OBOR; high unemployment rate; discouraging Chinese students and scientists in the western institutions; using the discontent amongst the neighbors; securing Taiwan, and challenging China in the South China Sea; and the Indian Ocean is the only way forward. In addition to this, the Hong Kong issue should be kept alive to needle China. Time has come to get out of World War II mentality, go beyond the ‘Quad’(US, India, Japan and Australia) and build an alliance on the lines of NATO. This force would utilize all resources at its disposal to make China look inwards and deny latest in innovation; and education. China is in a similar situation what Ming Dynasty once was. So with the right moves by the world powers, rest of the damage it would inflict on itself, being  noninclusive in nature.

Time has come to return the favor to China in their own language – ‘Bù shuōhua, zhī chāojiá’ that is ‘No talking, only fighting’.

 

REFERENCES:

1. visualcapitalist.com – 2000 years economic history one chart

2. theglobaleconomy.com – China exports

3. knoema.com – world gdp ranking 2019

4. brookings.edu – order from chaos – unpacking the china Russia alliance

5. nationalinterest.org – China it’s neighbors delicate balance

6. wsj.com – taiwans success in coronavirus fight poses challenge to china

7. chinapower.csis.org – energy footprint

8. country.eiu.com –China Economic growth

9. beltandroadcenter.org – security challenges of one belt one road initiative

10. thestatesman.com – dragon in the ocean

11. newyorker.com – the future of Americas contest with China

12. thediplomat.com – how is covid19 reshaping China-India relations

13. scmp.com – coronavirus china faces fight hang foreign manufacturers

14. chinalawblog.com – would the last company manufacturing in China please turn off the lights

15. cfr.org – china’s maritime disputes

16. nationalinterest.org – China it’s neighbors delicate balance

17. edition.cnn.com – times education rankings global-intl

18. thediplomat.com – china’s maritime quest in the Indian ocean new delis options

19. country.eiu.com – China Forecast & Economic growth

20. thediplomat.com – the top 5 navies of the info-pacific

21. thediplomat.com – Vietnam struggle options in the south china sea

22. asiatimes.com – cold war chill sweeps through China and the US

23. ancient.eu – map of the mind dynasty territory

24. Monsoon – Robert D. Kaplan

25. A Historical Overview of China – Reymond C. Nelson

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370 thoughts

  1. Wow! Just wow!

    Wholly backed by research and how the Chinese government can be made to be accountable for unleashing the pandemic on the world.

    It’s belligerent stand against nations asking for a probe and sending substandard equipment as aid is not winning it any brownie points.

    It is reflected in how the PPE manufacturing industry in India went from zero to 8000 cr in two months. And now the swab sticks and ventilators. Countries should develop capacity to manufacture what they import from China.

    1. Read with great interest the article China vs Rest.
      My take on the Peaceful rise😅
      Like the Covid 19 curve it will take considerable time and coming together of the G7 and G20 to flatten the curve. The West has invested considerably in the last 4 decades in China to be able to pull out in the short term. What I envisage is a diversification of the manufacturing capability to countries considered low cost and stable. India B’desh Vietnam Thailand Malaysia, are all candidates, but with differing capabilities. What could go to B’desh and Vietnam need not be competitive for countries higher on skill and technical capabilities.

      The String of Pearls theory has been around since the 90s. Is it such a magic pill for China’s unfortunate circumstance that they are literally shut out from access except the Pacific? Don’t think it’s taking them anywhere. China repeatedly needles India by saying the Indian Ocean doesn’t belong to India. But that is the truth. The coming together of the AU Japan US however informal is sufficient deterrence for China. Until about 2050 China’s dependence on fossil fuel is going to be preponderant. It puts them right on our cross hairs.

      In terms of Great Dynasties through history I think our own Chola empire deserves a mention. From Thailand to Cambodia and South Vietnam their influence is very striking. Indonesia Malaysia included were all major Hindu and Buddhist infused lands till Islam gradually gained influence.
      The Thai and Indonesian folklore insists that Ramayana is infact indigenous to them.

      Of course it’s very interesting to see China raving and ranting against US, Australia & France in a desperate bid to keep Taiwan out of the WHO observer status, something that China didn’t object to till 2017. China is feeling the heat, but the Dragon won’t give in easily.😁

      Of course that brings us to the last but interesting part that concerns us. What does India want to do? .

      Your turn to tell us what would India’s strategy likely be in the coming decade.
      😊👍🙏

      1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts and immense experience.
        Yes, India was indeed a golden bird and would be a golden bird again. We can take inspiration from the past but if we depend upon the golden past, we would be like Chinese, who is running for a mirage. India is very capable and would make this adversity into an opportunity.

      2. 1. It’s nice to read the article on China vs rest of the World. It gives general prevailing situation with a bit of past history.
        2. My views are different in the sense that it’s not as simple to deal with China, to punish it for its hegemony, as expressed in the article. Countries in present day world are dependent on China for their survival & China’s potential, of its money power, to destabilize main political parties in the country & bring civil unrest, esp to fragile & weak Govts. Interference in Nepal’s affairs & inciting against India and coercing countries against supporting Tiawan’s participation in WHO are the examples. Unless these countries have an alternative which are equally financially strong and willing to fill the gap to, China would continue to have it’s way. China as big fish now, with communist Govt which can treat it’s subjects ruthlessly, has potential to survive longer than any of it’s adversary.
        3. Further, it’s has built strong infrastructure to be self reliant and has bonded labour available to it continuing production cheaper than any other country. Dependency on cheaper products by poor countries for their survival will take priority over other ethical factors. This factor is strong in China’s favour.
        4. Being a permanent member in UN, with veto power available for misuse, it will not allow anything legally to be against it.
        5. World won’t allow setting aside the treaties by dishonoring it in differencial treatment to Chinese student by depriving education to them. China itself has developed it’s education system better than many countries of the world.
        6. The way to punish China is only voluntary refusing use of Chinese products & harming it economy. Encouraging other adversary countries to develop industries where labour is cheap.
        7. Further, slowly & steadily somehow getting it’s population standing against it’s policies & human Rights violations. Major & independent economic countries to openly supporting unrest in Hong Kong & other non violent ways suggested in your article.
        8. In conclusion, to tame the Dragon, consistent bleeding of it’s economy & supporting economic development of all its adversaries.
        *Make Enemy of an enemy a Friend*

      3. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.
        Surely, it won’t be an easy task. If you have read my previous two articles, you would understand that at no time, I have undermined China and it’s strengths. But that the beauty of it. One has to attack China’s strengths and not weaknesses. Every country works on weaknesses and stays comfortable with its strengths. That gives a chance to exploit the strength.
        I have presented the issues simmering in each country against China. Psychological and information warfares are meant to exploit these issues. Of course, a resourceful and powerful country only can take on China.
        China has a good infrastructure, but its labor cost has shot up drastically. 30 yrs back, average Chinese earnings were $150, today they are over $9000. But China is smart and shifting away from labor-intensive industries.
        UN is a defunct institution, do you think China pays two hoots to the UN. It is just a tool in their hand. In recent past India has made hard choices with impunity.
        The normal populace of a country can’t do much without political backing. Poor or rich, everyone loves to pay less.
        The only answer is an alliance of countries with a common set of goals.

    2. Thank you so much, Hardik, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.
      This pandemic has actually given India a chance to show to the world that we were the world’s largest economy till the 19th century for nothing.

      1. With the stimulus package rolled and borrowing by states linked to reforms we have begun to head in the right direction.

        It is for us to hold the government accountable and see to that the reforms are implement the reforms in the spirit they were intended.

      2. You are right, Hardik. India has always been reactive rather than proactive. The 90s reforms also came because India was staring at bankruptcy. The reforms we are trying to implement today should have been started two years back when the trade war with China had started. Today Vietnam is running out of capacity, but still, businesses are shifting from China to that country.
        Anyways, better late than never!

  2. Well researched, excellently organized, and candidly written. Mashallah! It was a nice and delightful read. Though I don’t agree with discouraging Chinese students and scientists in western or any institution for that matter. I think the response should be humane.
    Thanks for sharing.
    Warm regards!

    1. Thank you so much, Atul Depak, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.
      I understand what you are saying about being humane. The feeling has to be mutual, that is what I can say.

  3. This a well researched and well written piece. I find the OBOR one of the most difficult things to accept. You are so right when you make the point about China having so many neighbours, many of them of great strategic advantage to both the West and Russia. Afghanistan is probably the most important and, historically, the most fought over. You show clearly how China could collapse in on itself in the same way as the Ming. Great read. Thank you.

    1. Thank you so much, Belinda, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. There are many areas where the world has messed up. China is one of those. I just hope that this time they are on track.

  4. Wow what an article. Well researched, makes one sit up and think. Hope the rest of the world gets together.

  5. Noteworthy piece!
    But what will the rest of the world (that may never come together in the midst of divided interest and hunger) stand to achieve by fighting China that they are not better than? The west is also morally bankrupt!

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. In fact, you are correct, only the morally upright country should take on this task, and that may not exist in reality.

  6. An excellent read. It is time China should be made to realise that peace and happiness is more important for human race then control and suppression. The author has shown the way.

  7. A well analyzed article. The writer has taken pains to go into every detail thereby making it easier for everyone to grasp the strategic nuance. The ww-3 seems inevitable. Let’s c what n how things come up. Nevertheless it was treat to read the article.

  8. Very well researched and well presented post.
    Greed and inhumanity doesn’t last long. Let us hope and pray that good sense prevails in Chinese leadership. A very different world would emerge post Covid-19

    1. It is indeed going to happen. I am still not sure if China did this deliberately or it was an accident. But, whatever it was, China didn’t play it well and the world is angry.

  9. very good read…and a lot to ponder. With the outbreak of Covid-19, the substandard equipment coming from China, the W.H.O., United Nations, and everything else that is going on, it’s about time the world realizes what is going on. Before it’s too late! I’m hoping there’s still time to take action… I do believe it has started though.

    Here in the U.S., it has become obvious just how much the Chinese have taken over (they now own a good percentage of farmland, and manufacturing), and Chinese students studying here and taking everything back to China. Could be considered theft, and possibly even espionage. People have started boycotting certain companies that are Chinese owned. Or at least calling for it. It is very much eye opening. And a person actually has to pay attention to labeling… made in the USA does not mean that it was manufactured or produced in the USA. Very deceptive.
    I’m hoping that we’re not too self centered, as a people/world, that nothing happens. Or too little, too late.
    Sorry I started rambling, but this is very concerning for me…with everything else going on, locally and world wide? It worries me…but it’s not just the Chinese gov, it’s certain people in our (the US) gov that allow it to happen.
    I could keep going, but I will stop here.

    1. Those were indeed profound emotions and a lot of people around the world agree with those emotions. Believe you me, I can write a book on this subject or we can talk the whole day but the important thing is that people are in the right places should be doing the right things, that’s what matters.

    2. Your response just shows the penetration of the claws of the dragon in US and hence the world. N not known to most. Everyone is just leading their goalless lives .

      1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your immense experience. That is why the importance of an expanded version of Quad is the call of the day. Someone has to lead the way, who would that be, is the big question.

      2. Not everyone is leading goalless lives, and not everyone in the US is evil. There are many more people in the US that don’t have their heads in the sand than you are led to believe. And believe it or not, China will be punished for what they did…the US is part of it, starting with the W.H.O.

      3. You are absolutely correct, Morris. In fact, I would say that the United States has reached this position because it is an inclusive society. I am pretty sure that it is much more than the best of the nations.

  10. Consice and puts the geopolitical scenario in perspective.. hopefully COVID 19 will spell the death knell of the untrustworthy Chinese

  11. Very well written article .

    World should start working on new alliances to keep the dragon under control.

    Let us watch world’s reaction on China policies after Corona panic is over. I strongly feel new strategies would emerge for China.

    1. I am sure things would take shape soon. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your immense experience.

  12. Certainly a detailed look at the situation. For myself, I don’t believe China ‘unleashed’ the pandemic on the world. Cases with similar symptoms were seen on the west coast of America much earlier in 2019, before Wuhan. I would also worry far more about American control of the west, rather than possible Chinese control. But we all see different things in the same ‘evidence’.
    Best wishes, Pete.

    1. Thank you so much, Pete, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. You indeed have a noble thought. However, in Asia, the thought is not so comforting. The article is not blaming China for the pandemic, but trying to indicate that the world has not digested that fact, and cannot continue with the old model.

    2. I would also worry far more about American control of the west, rather than possible Chinese control.

      This is interesting, Pete. Why do you think this way?

      1. Since 1950, US expansionism has involved the world in numerous wars, and countless deaths. They have forced regime change in the Middle East that has generated terror groups around the the world, and continue to try to do the same in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, and some African countries. They have tried to destabilise much of Central America, and are still attempting regime change in Venezuela.
        By contrast, China has not invaded any other country, and their only aggressive stance has been over Taiwan, and some islands in the South China Sea. They have chosen instead to attempt economic domination of industry, by huge produstion capability, and cheap electronics. While they have been creating massive industrial complexes, America has been invading countries to steal oil and mineral resources, and allowing its own industry to crumble and die.
        That’s how I see it.
        Best wishes, Pete.

      2. Thank you so much, Pete, for stopping by and sharing your invaluable thoughts. What are your views on Tibet and Xinjiang?
        The United States got involved in many countries for sure, but it has not taken over any sovereign nation. What is the surety that China would not do that with Pakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Laos? It is taking over territories in the South China Sea with impunity. What are your views?

      3. The South China Sea areas have long been disputed. I think it is highly unlikely that China intends to try to annexe any of the countries you mention, especially Pakistan, which is a nuclear power and has many of its on problems to deal with anyway.
        As for America not taking over nations, it does this by the back door, by installing pro-American puppet dictators, or controlling the economy by threats of sanctions.
        We have to stop looking East for the wrongdoer in today’s world, and begin to recognise the US agenda for what it really is. Globalised Capitalism by threats, and force if necessary.
        Best wishes, Pete.

      4. Pete, Pakistan ceding the Shaksgam Valley to China in 1963. They took over Indian territory of Aksai Chin, Laddakh in 1962. They have taken over .7% of Tajikistan territory.
        Warm regards.

      5. I see you as are part of the blame America first brigade who only gets your information from the Communist Party of China’s propaganda apparatchiks. Where has this US expansion occurred since 1950?
        Best wishes,
        ST

      6. You are right, ST, I was just wondering why Pete is hell-bent upon changing Chinese wrongdoings into a misdemeanor.

      7. I wish he were merely trying to reduce them to misdemeanors. He is erasing them from history.

      8. “By contrast, China has not invaded any other country, and their only aggressive stance has been over Taiwan, and some islands in the South China Sea.”

        Please explain Tibet vis-a-vis China.

  13. Wow! I feel better reading this because it sounds like other countries, including the US are beginning to see China for what they are, evil, power hungry totalitarians and dictators who are gunning to silently invade other countries to expand their empire! Hopefully the rest of us will put the hammer down on China! They’re getting too bold!

    1. Thank you so much, Cherie, for stopping by and sharing your in-depth knowledge. It is always a pleasure to have your views on this subject. You have listed the Chinese characteristics in detail. It is not that world is not aware of these issues, they are very much aware, but it is too much of a task to challenge China as well as fix their own problems. If China is ready to fix it for them, of course at a steep cost, loss of natural and national resources then also they are not bothered. This callous attitude and personal greed are killing all those countries.

  14. Very educational post! China is also involved with South Africa and loans to bailout embattled, mismanaged Eskom – the utility supply commission – and they have done major damage in Ecuador with failed projects involving infrastructure, oil, mining, and energy…

    1. Thank you so much, Sue, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. You are absolutely correct. You would be surprised to know that some people are getting upset, that why have I listed out weaknesses of China. They feel that I should have written something positive, but they don’t realize that the Chinese propaganda machine is already doing that.

    2. Thank you so much, Sue, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.
      Those are serious concerns that you have indicated. Thanks for the information.

  15. Again a wonderfully written work on Chinese strategy for world domination. What impressed me was the data and fact based conclusions. The scenario forced on the world is real & the greatest threat on mankind.

    1. Thank you so much, Francis, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It was indeed a lot of research I had to undertake. I am glad that you liked it.

  16. Interesting piece as usual. It seems to me that you are calling for an organized ‘Cold War’ against China. If so, who would lead this effort and why? Which are China’s critical vulnerabilities that could be attacked without igniting a hot war?

    Interesting how few allies China really has, and it is long past time America ends our foolish ‘One-China’ policy.

    You are invited to share this though provoking article with d’Ettes on Unleashed – please?

    1. Thank you so much, ST, for stopping by and sharing your immense experience and wisdom. As you said, the cold war is already on… I have listed out the weaknesses in the Chinese armor and we need a bigger alliance than the ’Quad’.
      I shall post it on Unleashed today.

    1. Agreed. Sandomina has pointed out something I never really thought about but maybe the Chinese Communist Party’s Achilles’ heel is its like of natural allies.

    2. Thank you so much for your kind words. Indeed it was hard work to dig out each country’s issues and then summarize in 3-4 lines. I am glad that you like it.

  17. Ex excellent piece. Well corroborated and very well researched. We have to think and see how one can contain China. I would love to see China is contained. Best wishes to the writer

    1. Thank you so much, Sanjay, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. I am glad that you have liked it.

  18. Interesting article and very rightly highlighted. To change China’s aggressive approach, undoubtedly world need to act.

  19. Excellent analysis of the political realities as they are and the choices available to deal with it. In essence the world must learn the art of war from the Chinese. To fight an unseen enemy with an invisible weapon that exposes their hidden vulnerabilities.

    1. Thank you so much, Ananda, for stopping by and sharing a very succinct analysis. Expansion of the ’Quad’ is the only answer. I just hope that it fructifies.

  20. Nice read sir. Historically, any country or race looking for superiority over the rest of humanity sooner or later comes down crumbling….. The decline is inevitable. Their conduct indicates the same!!

    1. Thank you so much, Rajiv, for stopping by and sharing your invaluable experience. Yes, you are right, the time is ripe for the beginning of the end.

  21. A very interesting write-up giving us perspective on China, informing us how Chinese had their thoughts and actions fructified and have reached to this level where they can dictate their terms to the world at large. Partly, all the concerned countries are responsible for this. If you let yourself dominate then how you can hold others responsible. How, we Indians are relying on Chinese cheap goods thereby ruining the very prospect of enhancing of our industrial growth. How our neighbours; Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and other countries have let the construction activities grow in their countries thereby giving access to every part of their countries to them. Now they are shadow-boxing; instigating one neighbour to object construction of road! Construction of road on Indian territory POK by China too is a case in point. Then their influence in other countries is considerable. The sooner countries realize their follies and restrict their reliance on China the better it would be. India has realized this and is acting. Lets see what tomorrow brings for us all.

    1. Thank you so much, Harbans, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts & in-depth knowledge. It is always a pleasure to have your views on this subject. You have listed the Chinese characteristics in detail. It is not that world is not aware of these issues, they are very much aware, but it is too much of a task to challenge China as well as fix their own problems. This callous attitude and personal greed are killing all countries.
      India has to be very smart in handling its neighbors, even China doesn’t find this task easy.
      A bigger alliance like Quad is the only answer.

      1. Thank you so very much for adding on the Chinese intrusions in the affairs of other countries for personal gains and subjugation. The world should realise the truth and rise up to the occasion. Lets see if countries concerned confront China. otherwise they will have to bear the brunt of everything which is happening around..

      2. Harbans, we should not undermine Chinese. They aim, plan, and executive. They do not care who thinks what. Therefore, we have to stay one step ahead of them and beat them in their game using their psyche.

      3. Absolutely, in agreement with you Harbans. Nation and humanity, always first.

  22. Thank you for drawing my attention to this story – it had shown up in my in-box – I felt much more hopeful about the China situation after reading your splendid analysis of all its neighbours and their probably attitudes.

    I do agree with your commenter who suggested banning Chinese students from western universities – both Oxford and Cambridge have been subverted by China endowing chairs of Chinese studies, and installing their own stooges by which I mean English quislings/traitors, who become Professors of these Chinese ‘chairs’, while the Chinese students who attend UK universities are too frightened to speak up,in case another student reports them to their embassy.

    I’ve just read the case of Simon Ang who is now being prosecuted in the States – an engineer, funded by NASA, and they’ve just discovered that he is also in the pay of the Chinese government..
    The positive side of Covid 19 – if one can say that, is that everyone is suddenly waking up to the menace of China.
    Do carry on your good work, it is really valuable.

    1. Thank you so much, Valerie, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.
      The rot in western universities is very deep. As you have brought out, chairs in universities along with professors are sold to China for a premium. Thereafter they become the source of Chinese propaganda, in those countries.
      Surely the post-COVID world is likely to go for a major overhaul, and I hope that it changes for good.
      I am glad that you have like the article. Do share it with your husband.
      Warm regards.

  23. Thanks Sandeep Sir for putting up such a detailed researched report on China v/s Rest of the world.The writeup is highly enlightening for those who care for each other.There is lot to come and nobody knows what next?.Best story making the rounds is about the likelihood of the rest of the world locking horns with China unless China comes up with a fake story and shrinks down in defence.It might be another hoax by the otherwise tight-lipped miscreant. Who knows? With China we may never know!

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It is always a pleasure to read your in-depth analysis. We have to beat China, by staying one step ahead and using their psyche. They don’t care, who thinks what. They are also aware that the world is very fragmented and divided. Therefore, it is going to be the enhanced form of Quad, which would stand up to China, and not the whole world.

  24. All your articles are so well researched and filled with a lot of information. A lot to ponder upon. Covid19 has surely made the world realize what China is upto and it’s time to take some serious actions.

    1. Thank you so much, Shivani, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It is indeed a very serious issue on which the world has to act immediately.

  25. A good summation of the Chinese Vulnerabilities. Your earlier narrative was on how the rise of the Chinese is unstoppable. It is very difficult to hold a nation who thinks its time has arrived, especially by a fragmented world. China has deep inroads into ASEAN, EU, Africa and all others mentioned by you, therefore, a joint strategy against China is wishful thinking. In Apr this year China named 80 islands and other geographical features in the South China Sea to assert its territorial claims with scant respect to claims by other countries. The Chinese Juggernaut is still on, despite economic challenges it still has not slowed down on its global ambitions. Everyone is treading carefully as there is too much fog to predict the state of the world post Covid and therefore, it is premature to put all eggs in one basket. As of now it is each one for itself. A nation’s ability to take risk will decide the disproportionate gains or losses in the emerging new world order, our balanced approach only leaves us to gain or lose based on the outcomes of the gamble taken by other players. Waiting for your views on how India catapults herself in these times of Covid…..

    1. Thank you so much, Atul, for stopping by and sharing your immense experience in the field for the benefit of other readers. Surely, as you have brought out very clearly, the world lacks decisive leadership. The Quad was created to counter China, however, it didn’t fructify beyond the conceptual stage. We may expand Quad, and a few more countries. The United States is down but not out, and is still most suitable for the world leadership. If decisive and firm steps are not taken today, then the future of the next-generation looks bleak.

  26. la Cina è una potenza economica, non più ideologica, è avanzatissima e arretratissima allo stesso tempo, specie per le condizioni igieniche degli abitanti: i risultati ogni tanto si vedono e si ripercuotono su tutto il mondo

  27. China is getting on everyone’s nerves. I read some of the panelists justifying Chinese action in the South China Sea, Tibet, Xinjiang, Arunachal Pradesh(India), and Aksai Chin(India). I am aghast. Where is my country, and why is it sleeping?

    1. Thank you so much, Elon, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. I am sure your country is planning something in the near future, along with other western powers.

  28. Fascinating read, as always. My views remain the same as on earlier occasions. Apart from the grandstanding in the South China Sea, I am not aware of China militarily taking over countries and people. If they have an economic plan to do so, what is wrong with that? Everyone protects and promotes its own interest first. If the US allies with India, it is not because it wants India to become more powerful, but because it suits them as this point and they believe it is the best way to protect their own interests. Period!

    1. Thank you so much, Ankur. It is always a pleasure to read your reviews. Djibouti port is China’s first overseas military base. Chinese have applied pressurized on Sri Lanka in the past to allow their nuclear submarines in Hambantota. Gwadar in Pakistan is surely going to a Chinese naval base. Myanmar has a Chinese military presence in Coco Island and another port under construction. So we would be very naive if we just assume that these are peace initiatives from China. Surely China is not going to attack India tomorrow. But these are the preparations for tomorrow. And these have dangerous connotations.

      1. We, as India are doing our bit. The whole game is that only Ankur, take full advantage and deny the same to the adversary. Geopolitics is not an even playing field.

      2. I agree with that. Physical aggression is off limits. That includes bio and chemical aggression. Economic aggression and the art of negotiation are fair.

      3. Dual-use research of all kinds of pathogens is being undertaken in almost all the major countries of the world. India is the only country in the world that has destroyed its stockpile of the nerve gas in the 90s and is completely free of any Bio or Chemical Weapons.

  29. Hi Sandeep

    A great read as always!

    However, there is a missing point here. Pakistan’s dubious role in this strategic calculus of Chinese expansion. With the deep state being highly motivated along the lines of a pan-islamic caliphate (the troika of Turkey-Qatar-Pakistan), the Chinese will face the machinations against it coming from these states. Just like the “Da Da, Tan Tan” of the Chinese, there is “Jihad Jihad, Victim Victim” drama of the Islamic world. Now, their bet is on the West-Far East conflict in the offing.

    What Pakistan did to its largest donor of military and economic aid during the Afghan Jihad days and Post 9/11 is all well chronicled [e.g. in Directorate S by Steve Coll] and known to all. The similar kind of backstabbing would be the China’s death all over central Asia brought upon it by the deep state of Pakistan. Once the right kind of money is made, the whole drama will unfold and the Chinese will look like fools who mouthed Sun Tzu all the time and were foolish enough not to see the danger at close quarters. Or perhaps, they have a plan of their own for their “friends” who are sweeter than honey and deeper that oceans and blah blah blah…

    To me, it seems that Pakistan will betray the Chinese; and once the dragon either becomes tired of just collapses, it will usurp all the roads and rails and infrastructure it has built by the Chinese within its territory. Its hard to digest that the Pakistan’s deep state wont create a quagmire for China through its network of jihadis, be it the Haqqani’s, the Taliban, the JeM or LeT. Its just a matter of time before the Chinese taste the deception form a closer ally.

    What do you think about this line of argument? Is it possible, highly plausible or plainly stupid?

    1. Thank you so much, Jyotirmay, for stopping by and sharing your wonderful review.
      Pakistan, Turkey, and Qatar are desperate to be part of every alliance that comes their way. Turkey is part of NATO, with not much of standing within NATO. Qatar has been shunned by all Arab nations and stands alone. Pakistan loves to be called an important nation and tries to hobnob with a superpower, in its drive to feel important and get easy funds for its defunct economy. Earlier it was America and today it is China. They would not play the Islamic card with China until the time they remain in the Chinese camp.
      These secondary aspects were not included in the article because the topic was China containment. Another aspect is to keep the length of the article within some limits so as to keep it interesting. Even this length of the article is not liked by people, and they keep complaining.

      1. haha…
        People want everything in a jiffy.
        Although, your blog is super clean and easy to read.
        Still, one cant make all the people happy all the time 😀

        I have a humble request to make…

        Could you please, some day, write about the state of affairs in this P-T-Q alliance? How the tentacles of Islamic supremacist ideology of Hassan al Banna and Sayyid Qutb i.e. the Muslim Brotherhood aka the Ikhwanis binds them and how its being driven across the continents. About the role of this organization in current Indian political scenario, its hold on the current muslim youth in India and its influence in Pakistan’s outlook vis a vis Indian subcontinent.

        I think this type of thing goes under the radar of a normal TV watching and social media gulping Indian.

        Thanks for the reply.

      2. Thank you so much, Jyotirmay for your understanding.
        I have an ongoing article on Turkey and Pakistan. This is a good suggestion. I shall see how I can expand the scope of that article or write one, altogether new one.
        This is the kind of intellectual and intelligent dialogue I want to generate from these articles. I am so happy to inform you that many of our Indian people take part in these interactions with a fantastic grasp of the topic.

  30. Sandeep, good effort to sum up the international politics oriented towards China at the time of COVID 19 pandemic. COVID 19 effects are still at the infancy level in the African continent, South America and many other small territories across the globe. And it has reached around halfway mark in inflicting sufferings to USA, Europe, Middle East, Russia and South & South East Asia and other parts of the globe. Your previous two articles in your blog did layout the ambitious outlook of Chinese Regime in dominating the world with their political, economic and military powers in the 21st century. Factors argued over there by your thoughts include Chinese advancement in communication, information network, IT-enabled futuristic weapons including Artificial Intelligence, sophisticated hacking technology, and measures to strengthen Chinese currency v/s US dollar. Those factors have certain validity in the outcome of silent unleashing of nCOV 19 by China (if global powers prove it logically) and Chinese Communist Power Centre must have premeditated the reaction of the global powers and their responses. Further, the economic crisis and political uncertainty looming, as an outcome of COVID 19 Pandemic, at large at the face of USA, almost all European countries, Oil dependent economy like ME countries, Russia and others may not have a desirable impact in forming a global anti-China alliance to punish Chinese, post present pandemic crisis. If you observe Russia’s recent reaction (by none other than deputy foreign minister), it has opposed the very idea of blaming China for COVID 19. One major factor needs our attention is future “Oil Diplomacy” on which ME, Russia (suppliers) and China (consumer) might force them to shape their courses of action in the aftermath of the pandemic. If we narrow down to swinging factor from India in joining the global alliance against China, then the reliability of ME and Russia to support India is a billion-dollar question and the cascading of this might also surprise us from our immediate neighbours (Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nepal) and OIC nations (an image has already been created by vested interests against India in highlighting as if it is acting against a particular community in the pandemic). If these aspects are considered by you, then the might of global powers may turn out to be weaker in launching any ‘tit for tat’ punitive action as suggested by you, ie, “Time has come to return the favour to China in their own language, that is ‘No talking, only fighting’. Notwithstanding all these, indeed, global civilised society is already angered by the fact of hiding the COVID 19 virus spread by China. Time will tell the rest and it might also prove the old saying, “whoever controls the Indian Ocean will rule the world in the 21st century”. Looking forward to reading more interesting write up from you and wish you the very best in your efforts.

    1. Thank you so much, Ramki, for stopping by and sharing your amazing grasp of the geopolitics of our region.

      More than 110 countries have backed Australia’s push for an independent coronavirus inquiry which has caused a damaging rift with China. The countries are including India, Russia, Indonesia, Japan, Britain, and Canada. So things are changing very fast. Russia was always a fence sitter and would play mind games with China.
      IOR is the future, and we are a very important component of that machinery that would keep this region secured.

      1. There is a saying (probably from Europe)- “If you scratch a Russian deep enough you will find a Tatar”. This is in reference to the Mongol invasion and its impact on Russian psyche. They are always suspicious of the Mongol race. The Russians must be wary of the might of the Chinese right in their immediate neighborhood and would be playing its own game.

      2. You have very correctly brought out the Russians being suspicious and scared of China. Russia encroached upon Chinese territory in Siberia. China can ask for that territory at any time. Chinese people are aware of the Russians massacring 20000 Chinese in WWII. So Russian are scared of these repercussions. So Russia would never be wholehearted with China.

      3. Yeah, I read about this Siberia issue in your blog above. I had no idea about this piece of Sino-Russian history. Thanks for bringing it to notice in this context.

  31. Great,
    thnx to share
    A burning house falls into commotion and tumult.
    Thus a thief can seize the chance to loot the property in the house when the doorkeeper and house guards are busily engaged in putting out the fire ……In war,a burning house symbolizes a nation that is suffering a major crises or is in decline . By attacking such a nation, one can get twice the result for half the effort…..”
    The Wiles of War
    This is the right time to teach China in the same language, in the same way.Chanakya’s diplomacy should answer “The Wiles of War”.Economically outperformed China is embroiled in a trade war with America .Hong-Kong is a new problem.
    We cannot see this bad time of China sitting in the pavilion. The sea is formed by the drop.

    1. Thank you so much, Nitin, for stopping by and sharing your immense experience. You are bang on, and that is the exact reason I have written this article so that the right people in the right places take note of this, and believe you me, they have.

  32. This is very enlightening and helpful in interpreting some of the world tensions that many of us are aware of, but don’t fully understand. Thank you also for drawing attention to the under-stated tragedy of how the Chinese government treats the people within its borders. Religious, political, and ethnic persecution and killing in China goes under-acknowledged in many discussions regarding this world power. When we become aware of what they are doing to their own people, this naturally raises the question of why we should trust a government whose own inhabitants cannot trust it.

    1. Thank you so much, Shiloh, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It is indeed worrisome how China treats non-Hans. People other than Eastern Chinese are persecuted and ignored in every walk of life. People from Tibet and Xinjiang face minority status in their own state as the government is pushing Hans to settle in these areas to bring in the change demographically. Their treatment of neighboring countries is also worrisome. I highly appreciate your detailed review.
      Do check out my previous two articles to understand China better:

      https://insightful.co.in/2020/04/28/beware-the-war-is-getting-uglier/

      https://insightful.co.in/2020/04/19/world-war-iii-has-begun-and-we-are-unaware/

      Warm regards

  33. The analysis of the situation is surely on the spot.
    But wonder if in real world the pack has the ability to take real steps to counter China or short term goals will be their focus.
    Unlike China NOT many ( actually any) have had the foresight and gumption to plan far ahead.
    Let’s see whether there would be any walking the talk.

    1. Thank you so much, Rajeev, for stopping by and sharing your immense experience. You are very much current. The world is very fragmented and divided. However, this time around even small African countries are joining the chorus against China. Over 110 countries, including India and Russia, have asked for an investigation into the wrongdoings of WHO and China. But surely, a longterm action plan would be executed by the Quad plus a select few. Maybe the Quad can be expanded to Germany, UK, and France. The coming times are very interesting from the geopolitical point of view.

  34. You identify a number of troubling trends, Sandomina. The fact there are 30 million more men than women in China tends, also, I think, to favor war. I recall reading that — all rhetoric and good intentions aside — the Crusades were a way of managing the large number of knights, armed men without land.

    1. Wow, I had missed out on this fact, altogether. Next, I wish to write, what makes a country great. I hope, Anna, you are keeping well in these very trying and testing times.
      Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.

  35. How are you Sandomina? You address a lot of valid points which historically valid. But my understanding of China’s issues with the free world is that, the free world sold itself to China for economic gain thru China’s cheap labor. So now, the repayment is huge … trillions! … and many countries participated in contracting work out to China. The USA has been on its way out for a long time and that actually became a reality to me with the invention of credit cards (1970s —-1990s+) The results etched on trade relations, and a declining of resources. Now there is another kind of money which I feel will be the last episode of invisible currency and actual currency. Please visit: https://americaoncoffee10.wordpress.com/2020/01/30/what-does-china-say-about-bitcoin/

      1. You are very welcome! Hope that you will too visit some of the most astonishing occurrences in USA social affairs, history and those of the world. (AWOLL) AmericaOnCoffee

    1. I read this write-up. 👍 China is very smart, it is creating fear of Bitcoin, but introducing its own digital currency. I had written and warned about it, even before China had launched the currency.

      1. I have a feeling that a new system and a new world order is about to emerge in the world.

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