HAS CHINA UNLEASHED THE FRIEDMAN’S DISASTER ECONOMY ON THE WORLD

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Courtesy: chineseposters.net

War is nothing but a continuation of politics with the admixture of other means.” 
― Carl von Clausewitz, On War

An ancient Chinese stratagem advises military leaders: “Loot a burning house.” The trick is easy and self-explanatory — attack when your opponent is most vulnerable. China has given, this and many other hideous ancient wisdom, paramount importance in the quest for ‘Pax Sinica’.

After the 2008-09 financial crisis, Chinese firms ventured out to procure discounted bargains worldwide, especially those with strategic utility: iron & nickel ore, oil, and innumerable other commodities that the Chinese economy became dependent on. With China’s economy having a head start coming out of the COVID19 crisis and its appetite for technology and other strategic assets as strong as ever, is it going to be the repeat of China’s predatory addiction?

DICTATORS LOVE DISASTERS

There is no loyalty in the heart of a traitor, only the false act of appearing trustworthy.” 
― Jesus Apolinaris

Milton Friedman was the twentieth century’s most prominent American economist. He was a distinguished leader of the Chicago school of economics. In 1951 Friedman received the John Bates Clark Medal honoring economists under age forty for outstanding achievement, and Nobel Prize in economics in 1976.

In one of his well-known essays, Friedman stated, ”Only a crisis‐​actual or perceived ​produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes politically inevitable”. He floated the idea of ‘Disaster Capitalism‘.

Friedman had a long history of working with dictators and oligarchs, making impossible things possible. His first work on disaster capitalism came to use in the mid-70s when he became an adviser to Chilean dictator General Augusto Pinochet. Soon after the coup Friedman advice the dictator to impose a rapid-fire transformation, known as the ‘Chicago School Revolution’. That was the beginning of Friedman’s long and very successful career.

CHINA LOVES MILTON FRIEDMAN

China’s 600 million people have two remarkable peculiarities: they are, first of all, poor, and second, blank. That may seem like a bad thing, but it is really a good thing. Poor people want change, want to do things, want revolution. A clean sheet of paper has no blotches, and so the newest and most beautiful words can be written on it, the newest and most beautiful pictures painted on it.” – Mao on programmable Chinese people.

Friedman in China – Courtesy: Cato Institute

Friedman’s ideas were boon for communism. He got invited to China for the first time in 1980. His subsequent trips came in 1988, 1992, and 1993. In more recent years, the senior echelons of the Chinese Communist Party have renewed their interest in Friedman’s wisdom. Friedman not only influenced Chinese leadership, but prominent economists like Zhang Weiying; & his mentor Mao Yushi, and present-day influencer, a Taiwanese military defector Justin Yifu Lin, too were his ardent admirers.

China loved Milton Friedman. They realized that his theory not only could be applied to other countries but with their own citizens too. They understood that countries or citizens have to be taken to a feel-good level of economic achievements before a shocking event, like a war, coup, terrorist attack, market crash, natural disaster, or pandemic can be introduced. While the country or citizens are dealing with the event, it is very easy to manipulate their disorientation, restrain democracy, force through extreme free-market policies that enrich the select few in China at the expense of the poor and the middle class. China innovated and divided Friedman’s methodology into:

  • Economic Supremacy Phase
  • Shock and Awe Phase
  • Military or Political Supremacy Phase

At the end of completion of all phases, the previously unacceptable policies which were not to the liking of countries/citizens can be justified and made a permanent fixture, in the name of crisis. One prime example is the introduction of income in Canada as a temporary war measure in 1917, the war ended, but the income tax stayed.

ECONOMIC SUPREMACY PHASE

China’s Growth Story – Post COVID: Courtesy IMF

This is a very important part of the whole strategy. Economic Supremacy should give a feeling of empowerment to the countries/citizens. They should go into a kind of intoxication which gives them false excitement of being economically successful. Plenty of loans and free-floating capital should be available to countries/citizens. They should feel indebted and obliged to the provider of such prosperous times. At no given time countries/individuals should realize that they are making a select few very rich and successful, at their expense.

To accomplish this phase China has taken its citizens to a certain level of prosperity. It has also emerged as a savior to many poor and financially unstable countries. China has been the biggest lender and investor in the recent past. Few facts about Chinese lending and investments from 2008 Financial Crisis to 2020 COVID19 Pandemic:

  • Chinese lending surpassing more than 6% of global GDP. 
  • $1.5 trillion in direct loans and trade credits to more than 150 countries worldwide.
  • Major lending banks – China Development Bank and Export-Import Bank of China.
  • Chinese lending surpassed the World Bank, the IMF, or all OECD creditor governments put together.
  • Chinese debt to other countries’ soared ten-fold, from less than $500 billion to more than $5 trillion.
  • 50 developing countries’ China debt has increased from less than 1% of their GDP in 2005, to more than 15% in 2017.
  • As of 2020, following are the most vulnerable countries stuck in Chinese predatory debt trap:
    • Kenya – US$6.5 billion,
    • The Maldives – US$3 billion
    • Ethiopia – US$13.5 billion
    • Cameroon – US$5.7 billion
    • Pakistan – US$6.2 billion, US$62 billion CPEC
    • Angola – US$25 billion
    • Laos – US$1.9 billion
    • Mozambique – US$2.2 billion
    • Republic of Congo – US$7.3 billion
    • Zambia – US$7.4 billion
    • Sudan – US$6.4 billion

This phase has another important component – deceiving stronger nations. In addition to the USA, China realized that it must harness European financial and technological might before it could get into the next phase. China’s strategy is simple – rob, replicate, replace. In case that is not possible then the last option is to invest in technologically advanced European companies. Some of the most astonishing takeovers in Europe by China in the recent past:

  • China has invested $180 billion in Europe since 2000.
  • German acquisitions:
    • Advanced Robotics company Kuka
    • 9.92% stake in Deutsche Bank
    • 10% stake in truck maker Daimler
    • BIOTEST
    • Waste management EEW
    • Auto parts company GRAMMER
    • Private bank Hauck & Aufhaeuser
    • Metering and energy management group ISTA
    • Plastics processing machinery maker KraussMaffei Group
    • Forklift truck maker Kion
    • Offshore wind park Meerwind
    • LEDvance(OSRAM)
    • Engineering firm PUTZMEISTER
    • German government’s push for 23 percent stake in CureVac, a German company working on coronavirus vaccine, is probably to ward off China.
  • The UK acquisitions:
    • Hinkley Point C nuclear plant
    • Sizewell C nuclear power station in Suffolk(chance to build reactor in Bradwell, Essex)
    • China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), accounts for
      • More than 25% of the UK’s oil production
      • 10% of the UK’s energy needs
      • Firm’s chairman, Wang Yilin, declared to its employees that deep-water rigs around the UK are China’s mobile national territory and a strategic weapon.
    • Europe’s largest battery storage project in Wiltshire
    • 30% in South Western Railway
    • London Crossrail franchise
    • 10% stake in Heathrow airport
    • 9 % stake in Thames Water
    • The sports car manufacturer Lotus
    • British Steel
    • London Black Cab maker Manganese Bronze.
    • Wolves football club
    • Hamleys(until Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani bought it recently)
    • Currency exchange WorldFirst
    • Luxury fashion retailer Harvey Nichols 
  • Italian acquisitions:
    • For $7.9 billion 17% of Italian tire maker Pirelli
    • Power grid firms Terna and Snam
    • Turbine maker Ansaldo
    • Luxury yacht maker Ferretti
    • Fashion brands
      • Roberto Cavalli
      • Mariella Burani
    • Systems and components company Ansaldo Energia
    • Shares of
      • Intesa Sanpaolo
      • Unicredit
      • Eni
      • Enel
      • Telecom Italia
      • General insurance
    • Develop and manage ports of Genoa and Trieste. 
  • Greek port of Piraeus. Today China controls about one-tenth of all European port capacity.
  • Swiss agrochemicals manufacturer Syngenta
  • Swedish Volvo Cars
  • Finnish Amer Sports, Gaming companies Supercell and Midea
  • A 13% stake in Norwegian Air, through Chinese aircraft leasing company BOC Aviation.

SHOCK AND AWE PHASE

Subservient CPC: Courtesy Nikkei Asia Review

The Shock and Awe Phase has two distinct parts. The Shock part follows a clear pattern. Once the other countries/citizens are completely entrenched in Chinese loans and investments, China waits for a crisis or helps foment one, suspends some or all governing norms, and then pushes the CPC’s wishlist through, as quickly as possible. CPC learned it soon after the revolution that any turbulent situation if framed with sufficient hysteria by CPC, State-Owned Enterprises(SOE), and PLA, could further their agenda. It could be an event as radical as a military standoff, economic shock, budget crisis, or life-threatening situations like pandemic or bio attack. Taking advantage of a crisis the CPC would be able to sell a panicked population/country the necessity for attacks on social protections, or enormous bailouts, forcing those entities to seek leadership from CPC.

The current COVID-19 pandemic has provided the right opportunity to CPC to present the Awe part of the Shock and Awe Phase. While the world cringed in isolation under a covering of intense media paranoia-peddling, China showcased itself as a big brother. It started “We have provided assistance to over 130 countries and international organizations to fight the coronavirus. We are working very closely with other governments, and we’ll be helping them through this patch.” It exported medical supplies including face masks, protective suits, thermometers, ventilators, test kits, and protective glasses under the full glare of media coverage. Countries and eminent personalities forgot grilling China on the subject of the origin of the virus, rather they started singing praises in China’s name. Chinese citizens were overawed by their leadership’s capabilities and wisdom.

The advantage of Shock and Awe was seen immediately. Fifty-eight countries and four international organizations signed contracts with Chinese manufacturers. In June 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that China would write off interest-free loans for “relevant African countries”. However, these loans constitute only 2-3% of Chinese loans. China never came out to actually help the countries in distress, it just portrayed itself as a very benevolent nation. In contrast, the US Marshall Plan after World War II had 90% of the funds as grants and aid.

MILITARY OR POLITICAL SUPREMACY PHASE

“It is possible to turn the crisis into an opportunity, to increase the dependence of all countries around the world of Made in China”. –Han Jian, director of the Ministry of Civil Affairs

Police Brutality in Hong Kong – Courtesy: NY Times

Presently the Indian Ocean Region(IOR) and the South China Sea(SCS) have become the most important aspect of Chinese strategy. China is strong enough in SCS, to undertake misadventures, however, IOR remains it’s Achilles heel. Eighty percent of its trade and energy needs are met through IOR. In the IOR, India is the country that challenges China and capable of choking its supply lines.

China with its $26 billion investment in India assumed itself to be in commanding position. Alibaba through its associate Ant Financial(Group) has invested $2.6 bn in Indian unicorns PayTM, Bigbasket, Snapdeal, and Zomato. Tencent and other companies have invested $2.4 bn in Ola, Swiggy, Hike, Dream11, and BYJU. China very skillfully killed the Indian manufacturing sector with its standard predatory practices. Today Indian manufacturing is 9 points below where it should be, considering the size of its GDP. India’s trade deficit with China had reached an astounding figure of $53.56 billion in 2018, demonstrating India’s pusillanimous attitude.

Once China was assured of completion of Economic Supremacy Phase, it waited for the Shock and Awe Phase, which came in the form of COVID19(Chinese President Xi Jinping had cautioned its leadership in January 2019 that they must be on guard against “black swan” risks while fending off “gray rhino” events. Adding that the economy faces deep and complicated changesEpiphany of Pandemic?). When the world was reeling under the Chinese origin Coronavirus, China moved to the next phase, the Military or Political Supremacy Phase. It started taking unilateral military actions at the Indo-Tibet border, SCS, East China Sea(ECS), East Turkmenistan, and Hong Kong. Unfortunately, the external aggression backfired on China. India was a leviathan very happy in its slumber but, Xi Jinping, due to his domestic compulsions, woke up the giant. Losses of 111 Chinese soldiers at the hands of Indian soldiers in the Ladakh region of India and loss of face at home forced Xi Jinping to take a U-turn. In the SCS the American and other allied navies did not lower their guard and China had to do face-saving by asking its forces to stand down. However, it succeeded in enacting draconian laws in Hong Kong and subjugating Uighur population.

In the melee what most analysts missed out were two important Chinese moves – Italy and Iran. With Iran in its fold, China reaches deeper into the Strait of Hormuz, letting Pakistan’s CPEC drift into cold storage. But the biggest achievement amongst all this is the subjugation of Europe’s 4th largest economy – Italy. Its port infrastructure in the Mediterranean has tremendous trade and military implications. Italy was already in severe financial distress, and post COVID19 it has been checkmated by China. The Italian government is taking steps to tide over the pandemic but they have no real plan to save their businesses from bankruptcy or takeover by China.

BEWARE OF GREEKS BEARING GIFTS

Five years ago, I was sure that China could rise peacefully, as it says it wants to. Now, I am not so sure” – Shi Yinhong, China’s most eminent foreign-policy commentator.

Declining Chinese Approval Rating Across the Globe

China has not succeeded this time around in what it had intended to do, but it has not backed out in any way. The clear and present danger is very much evident. Xi Jinping is desperate, running out of time, and getting reckless in his approach. If the world doesn’t come together and rise above its greed, then that day is not far when China would strike harder. It has already succeeded in setting a new normal. Speculation is now prevalent in the media regarding potential permanent changes in the aftermath of COVID-19. Social media analysis implies there is a general endorsement by the population that things will never be the same again. This demonstrates, that in one sweep how the climate was created by China to implement the disaster-capitalism policies. Friedman must be turning in his grave, remembering Shakespeare’s words “The evil that men do lives after them; The good is oft interred with their bones”.

162 thoughts

    1. Very well written. I think China forced the Lockdown on the world showcasing it as the best model and crippling economies world over.

      1. China understands the weakness of democracy very well and exploits it to the hilt. Time is running out. It is now or never. I don’t want to scare people but the future, especially the next 5 years are not very promising. This was not the first and not the last disruption of the life of this scale.

  1. Can you grab Judy’s email off the top OP on my blog right now, please.

    then let me know when you are done and I will delete it.

    Will explain sepcor after-after.

      1. I finished reading your last piece but have not had time to comment on it. Sorry. I will do that first then read and comment here on this one.

        It is not only you. I owe Hypatia and JaC the same LOL

    1. Excellent analysis. Especially liked this part:


      They understood that countries or citizens have to be taken to a feel-good level of economic achievements before a shocking event, like a war, coup, terrorist attack, market crash, natural disaster, or pandemic can be introduced.
      “.

      Thank you for sharing.

      1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. I am glad that you have liked it.

    2. Thanks Sandominia for the most explicit explanation of the present situation and the option available to tame the Dragon. A must read article for all Indians interested in securing the future of India. Bless you Sandominia.

      1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your wonderful thoughts. I am glad that we all can serve our country in our sphere of influence.
        Warm regards.

  2. Last comment for now about this but you won’t hurt my feelings if you go in and delete all of this after our first two comments. Just sayin’

  3. A very clear picture of the dangers due to Chinese policies . It’s a wake up call for governments bending towards Chinese funds

    1. There is no doubt that Milton Friedman was a genius. However, every genius can have a dark side to him. One has to dig deeper to find that side and even further to see who is making use of that talent.

    1. Not just crippling the economy but having the audacity to flaunt that in front of the world with impunity.

  4. A balanced article with references to the past and present situations. Many countries have fallen prey to the lucre provided by China and must be already regretting or will soon regret their trade dealings with and loans from China.
    Good insightful article

    1. Thank you so much, Rajeev, for stopping by and sharing your immense experience. It is unfortunate that those countries are stuck in between the rock and a hard place. China has them by the neck. They have no option but to submit. The overall amount is huge and no country or organization has the capacity to take over those debts.

    1. You are right, Atul, but none of those institutions and countries have the capacity to take over those loans. The amount is obscene. At present China seems to be winning the game, defying the whole world with impunity.

  5. An interesting read about facts as it happens….I am thankful to you for presenting us an excellent write-up on China amidst Covid pandemic situation, with your dedicated efforts and hard work on research. Best wishes.

    1. Thank you so much, Ramki, for stopping by and sharing your immense experience. It is indeed needed from the world powers to come together and take proactive action before it is too late.

  6. Outstanding research! very well articulated and analysed, based on credible information and factual linking of global events in the recent past. Very correctly brought out that the world must get together this time again, similar to the WW-II days Allied forces, to stop China from going ahead with its ambitious plans of conquering the world and force communism all over! well done Sandeep! Always a pleasure to read your interesting articles. Keep it coming!

    1. Thank you so much, Yogesh, for stopping by and sharing your immense experience. It is now or never. If we miss this opportunity, we are heading for dark ages. And I am not saying for the sake of saying, I would be writing on this soon.

  7. In my eyes, they use the same strategy in the west. First the 2008 financial crisis (artificially made, and not the first of its kind), which obviously did not give the expected result, so something harder had to be tried, and voila, along comes Corona, how convenient. Now economies are smashed, companies bancrupt, people out of work, and the governemnts will have to borrow vast amounts of money from the national banks, plus financing will also be done by cutting social support and services. All that while the m oney is floating upwards to the already rich individuals.

    What worries me most about China is their advanced technology.in general, and their AI technology especially.

    1. You just nailed it, Stella. My worry is that if this menace is not stopped now, it could be too late. We are heading for dark ages, where people who have knowledge would-be kings and kingmakers, and people who have lagged behind in technology would-be subservient followers. It is a very scary future ahead.

    2. Excellent compilation. Lot of hard work has been put. Also mid night oil has worked. Keep up the show. Bravo…..

      1. Thank you so much, Sanjay, for stopping by and appreciating the hard work put in. I am glad that you have liked it.

  8. I appreciate the work you put into this. even more the content. Thank you for your voice and continued flow of information. I can only hope both the people’s and their governments take heed. Of course the problem continues that most politicians have little to do with supporting the people and more to do with supporting any business that will buy them.

    1. That is the problem with politicians. They think only for themselves and how do they retain power. China understands this weakness of democracy very well and exploits it to the hilt. However, time is running out. It is now or never. I don’t want to scare people but the future, especially the next 5 years are not very promising.

      1. I understand. There are times when people need the impetus that is created by fear in order to overcome stasis. Politicians will use created events to create fear in an instant to manipulate. So perhaps fear may be a healthy response in those that care to seek what’s truthful. The next five years will be a crucial time if people refuse to accept and change the current process. Thanks again for your work.

      2. The world is very fragmented. One country’s right is another country’s wrong. The future clashes would not be between haves and have-nots, but the people who know and people who don’t know. The gap between the knowledge of different classes is increasing day by day.

  9. Thank you for this continuing education! I had some basic understanding of what’s happening in Africa but no idea about the Italian and especially German acquisitions. Have to admit I unknowingly purchased Chinese face masks and other PPE on Amazon – no more :o(…

    1. Thank you so much for your continued patronage. My worry is that if this menace is not stopped now, it could be too late. For heads of states, it could be business as usual but for the normal population, it is the question of survival. It is a very scary future ahead.

  10. “While the world cringed in isolation under a covering of intense media paranoia-peddling, China showcased itself as a big brother. . .(they all) forgot grilling China on the subject of the origin of the virus…” Exactly! As I heard our newscasters praising all the science and tech China was contributing for the virus, it occurred to me that 5 months ago they were singing another tune. Ironic? Staged?

    What gets me is they must be banking on the continued idiocy of the castrated American public, reeling from their own stupidity, squabbling over things that don’t mean a thing in the scheme of things. “It has already succeeded in setting a new normal.” Amen to that! “Oh say, can you see…”
    Superb choreography regardless of who is orchestrating it.

    1. That is the exact point I am trying to make. It is the people who have nothing to do with this menace, suffer the most. They are unaware of the looming danger. They get swayed by stupid leaders who misguide them.
      China has created such a bubble of their superior technology that people are in awe. Whereas they stole, replicated, and then replaced. They purged 2.5 million of their own citizens of Wuhan so that uncontrollable disease doesn’t bring their prestige down.
      My worry is that if this menace is not stopped now, it could be too late. We are heading for dark ages, where people who have knowledge would-be kings and kingmakers, and people who have lagged behind in technology would-be subservient followers. It is a very scary future ahead.

  11. Wow!! What a read. Excellent, well articulate and informative. You’ve done it once again. Simply great!!! Thankyou 🙏

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your immense experience. I am glad that you have liked it. My worry is that if this menace is not stopped now, it could be too late. We are heading for dark ages, and it is a very scary future ahead.

    1. Thank you so much, Martina, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. I am glad that you have liked it. It is indeed not going to be peaceful. My assessment is that the next 4-5 years are going to be very tough on humanity, and China is going to be a big part of that problem.

  12. Insightful indeed. An article that fills the blanks in the already ominous future. Thanks for the research and the views

  13. I have always amazed by your writing and knowledge on geopolitics, sir. As a political science and international relations student, this is really inspiring.

    1. Thank you so much, Aisyah, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. I am glad that you have liked it. It has become an issue of our survival. The more we are aware, the more we are prepared.

  14. Chinese propganda machine global times has been effectively used to destabilize the Democratically elected government through out the globe, and their debt trap diplomacy plays a crucial role to fulfill their expansionist regime, sir, your articles are really helpful to understand the ongoing development.

    1. Thank you so much, Shashank, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It is not just Global Times, they have bought western media also.
      I am glad that you have liked the article.

      1. Oh yes, everyone loves money, and the Chinese know that secret very well. Best of the scientists and college professors are on their payroll. Sad but true.

  15. Very comprehensive and nicely argued analysis. Agree with you that the world has to come together and deal with China, before it is too late. Xi is a big thteat, but CCP is not very much better. This over-centralised system of governance needs to be reformed, ideally by its own citizens; the world has to find a way for them to make it happen.

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. You have brought out a very important point -Chinese citizens. Xi Jinping is not scared of the external forces. The going was good. No country was challenging China. So why this display of external aggression. His external aggression stems from his internal fears. He is scared of his own people, which is an inherent quality of every dictator. Xi Jinping is trying to bring every powerful institution of his country directly under him. He has wiped out the opposition. Today Xi is CCP and CCP is Xi.

  16. It is right time, USA, EU, India and like-minded democracies call the shots and take on autocratic Communist China.
    First, declare TIBET a nation, independent of China and China as the Aggressor at the UN.
    Second, declare Taiwan and Hong-Kong as independent nation state at UN to eliminate the “One China” syndrome of Communist China.
    Third. India to give a befitting reply to the aggressor Communist China, as the latter will not back off, and to avenge / retrieve the 1962 “Stab in the Back’ by Mao and Chou.
    The above can dismantle communism in Communist China, and make it peaceful in the comity of Nations.

    1. If China was stopped at the time of the annexation of Tibet in 1952, India’s sufferings would have been half. No country came to their rescue. In fact, Nixon rewarded China by exploring the relationship in the 70s. Eventually, they recognized it as a country in 1979. The whole world has been a pusillanimous and mute spectator of Chinese aggression with all its neighbors. So, coming together from all the countries of the world is out of the question. Maybe some like-minded countries would come together, but the main aim for India should be to be self-sufficient. For that, we have to make our own military industry and reduce dependence on other countries. The problem is that we work in slow motion. The 5131 Cr AWACS project was sanctioned in 2015, the project hasn’t even gone past CCS. When would they start the R&D, and when would the product be available for utilization? And this is just one example.
      Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.

  17. Quite and an eye-opener. Thank you so much for such scholarly articles. In today’s media reporting we just don’t know what is the truth, and which publication has been bought by the CCP.

    1. Thank you so much, Elon, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. My idea is very simple, liberate this world of tyranny. I am glad that you like my articles.

  18. I like your effort for your posts. but there is too much text for me. I have poor eyesight despite reading glasses. i need a magnifying glass for this text. sorry, but an interesting blog.

    1. I am extremely sorry for the length. I understand that this one was a bit lengthier than the rest of my articles. This happened due to the topic and the data involved. If I had not presented all the things, people would not have understood what I was trying to convey.
      Thank you so much for taking your time out and the guidance.

  19. Sandomlna, Congratulations. A very well analysed and thought out article.We want more such from you. BSIK MUrthy.

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your wonderful thoughts. I am glad that you have liked it.

  20. You have connected the dots well to build up this narrative! Let us hope the democratic nations right the situation on the economic front. Technology is a great force multiplier in projection of economic and military power. China has obtained it’s technological prowess from the West. I hope they are not allowed to get future cutting edge technology

    1. The world has unduly delayed any punitive action against China’s wrongdoings. Any country which doesn’t have a manufacturing base is destined to fail. China understood this principle very well. West was very happy to move its factories to China. They even compromised on the IP theft issues in China. Today half of the European countries are in debt to China. It is late still, everything is not lost, action can be and should be taken to stop this menace, now.

  21. Nobody questions why China is supposedly free of the Virus. The Chinese Government audaciously flashed imported cases. Elections in US India UK etc. are manipulated and role of AI comes out, but identity of kingpins does not come out. Really scary. Friedman style counter strategy can only work. What if loans are not repaid?

    1. They purged 2.5 million of their own citizens of Wuhan so that uncontrollable disease doesn’t bring their prestige down. Their strategy was simple – delay, deny, deflect.
      In China Xi is fearing an uprising, that is the reason his sanguinary actions against the opposition have increased. But soon feral Chinese citizens would end his home run.
      His miscalculations in BRI would cost China dearly. Pakistan would not be able to pay 60% of the loans. Most other nations also have very high figures.
      My worry is that if this menace is not stopped soon, it could be too late. We are heading for dark ages, where people who have knowledge would-be kings and kingmakers, and people who have lagged behind in technology would-be subservient followers. It is a very scary future ahead.

  22. I think Mr Friedman would be spinning 10,000 rpms in his grave to see his ideas co-opted by the ChiComs. He was a strong believer in small government, the smaller the better.
    Good article. It’s a reminder that the best and noblest ideas can be put to work by those who are anything but noble.

    1. When, where, and who would take what inspiration from an idea, is a million dollars question.
      My worry is that if this menace is not stopped now, it could be too late. Xi is subsuming smaller and weaker nations into his scheme. His Finlandization of BRI participants is becoming a reality.
      I don’t want to be sounding like an alarmist, but it is a very scary future ahead, especially the next 4-5 years.

    1. That’s is a worrisome trend. China which is already a living hell would exacerbate to be a miasmic entity.
      Thank you so much, Anna, as always, for being so kind and encouraging.

  23. Thanks for your well-developed analysis, Sandomina. It provides a clear link between all of China’s actions playing out in real time. How ironic that Milton Friedman’s strategy of ‘Disaster Capitalism’ is being used against the advanced Western economies!

    1. Who, when and where will take what inspiration from an innocuous theory is a million dollars question. But I feel that free countries are partly responsible for feeding this Minotaur for so long. We ignored and became subservient to Nazi Germany in the early 40s, and we know the end result.

  24. The scarier part arrives when you mention and probably the average understanding comes to agreeing this being the new normal’, and if it is so, then it is going to get harder for the governments to control their people, once frustration accumulates.

    But yes, one thing happened that even came as a surprise, also as an excitement of sorts to us, and that we in India certainly felt it. It really woke up the giant, and hopefully we don’t go to sleep again.

    I somewhere have a feeling for post December events, Taiwan !

    What do you think about the near or coming future of Pakistan, if really Chinese have moved on from CPEC ?

    Any ways, Important read as always. You know i am enjoying it Commander S.

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and your kind words.
      Xi has done a strategic blunder and for that, he has been pulled up by party elders in the recently concluded in Beidaihe conclave. He has shaken a giant out of its slumber.
      Pakistan is an irritant for India. China calls it their Israel.
      CPEC was a failed project from the start. The cost of transportation is 10 times the sea route. Now with the Iran deal, it further goes into cold storage.

  25. In ancient China-friedman role was good but now disaster of capitalism is not good and danger for International peace.you are seeing the modern policy of China.about it,future will tell very well.what?you know.i like the quote of Cari.wonderful post ,dear!!

    1. You are so right, Aruna. Modern days, modern thinking. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your wonderful thoughts.

  26. Great article. China is very mean and can never be trusted. They have put the world on knees and in this hour of crisis, they are terrorising the world with their military might. Pathetic.
    They have caused immense damage to Indian economy with millions losing job and for them, this is an opportunity to grab Indian territory.
    As rightly pointed by you, it is hightime we should come-up and join hands against China.

    1. Their policy is “Da Da, Tan Tan”, “Talk Talk, Fight Fight”… But that strategy from the Middle Kingdom suits their domestic politics. If they apply it to the Indian borders and the South China Sea, they would get it back as they got it in Ladakh, 2 days back.
      Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.

  27. The article is very very in-depth with data and numbers which otherwise may not be available in other domains..the lucrative yet dangerous predator debt scheme is narrated very aptly with courage and conviction.. hats off to the writer for his ability on such great impactful writing skills… These articles are worth being discussed at India military forums for their quick learnings..

    1. Thank you so much, Sanjeev, for stopping by. The time has come for all Indians to pitch in. There would be short-term pain but long-term gains. With full conviction, I can adumbrate that Xi Jinping has been pulled up by the party elders for unnecessarily waking up a giant from its slumber. However, Xi has his compulsions, and I would be elaborating on that in my upcoming article.
      Let us fire on all cylinders and bring this leviathan down together.

      1. I agree with you. Xi Jinping is a man with a vision of Chinese greatness and is in a big hurry to forge a name for himself, as well as to reclaim that in his last fetime. His BRI, HK, Taiwan, Senkaku, Vietnam, Spratley islands, Tibet, inner Mongolia, etc are all pointers to his grand vision.

        Xi maybe purged, but CCP is no better. The Chinese people need to be awakened by the free world. How, is the question, with an information blockade in China.

      2. Very well said. One can get external support, but no one would do your job. Whether it is China or India. I suppose due to their own compulsions and greed, the free world nations have lost a lot of precious time, especially economically developed Western Europian states. It is a continuous struggle, but there is an answer to every question. We have to ask the right questions.
        India must make use of this time, look into the fault lines, and work on them. There could be no better time than this.

    1. Oh, I don’t want to be a harbinger of the bad news, nevertheless, the world would not look the way it is today. So, yes, at least the next two years are going to be tough, especially in Asia, and that would affect the whole world.
      Thank you so much for stopping by.

      1. It surely takes lots of research, hard work, and conceptual understanding of the working of despots and junta.

  28. Very well researched narrative on Chinese predators and their sly policies to ensnare the world economy. .It is scary.

    1. Thank you so much, Uma, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. All of us have to chip in, wherever we are, to stop these buccaneers.

    1. That’s so correct. The aim of ’Pax Sinica’ has gone to their head in a weird way. They are not only going to jeopardize other countries’ citizens’ life but would be harming their own future generations.

      1. I just don’t understand, what do they want. They are picking up a fight not only with neighbors but the whole world.

      2. Yes they are. But you must understand the psychology of bullies to really get a good idea of why they’re being this way. I believe that China’s leaders are largely narcissistic and psychopathic. And the reason why they do what they do is all for the sake of POWER! But the thing about power is that people like them can never get enough of it.

        Understand that Leaders like Xi Zinping are drunk on power, control, and domination and that’s why this psychopathic moron wants to rule the world. That’s his end goal! He wants something to conquer to feel better about himself and the County of China isn’t enough for him. He has to have the entire world under his thumb. The sad thing is that even then, Zinping’s appetite for power, dominance, and destruction will never be satiated. Understand that Zinping is a SICK MANIAC! And nothing is enough for these types of people.

      3. You got it so right. That is what we are trying to tell the EU and its leaders for so long, but for them, China is just one innocent supplier of goods. I had a chat with one gentleman he told me that China must be a threat for India but not for the EU🤷‍♂️
        Now, what do you do with that kind of warped thinking?
        The EU wants them to come to the doorstep and threaten then only they would treat them as a threat?

      4. It’s a shame, isn’t it. Understand that the EU is corrupt and all about money and power just like China. It’s the reason for Brexit and why the UK withdrew from the EU. It’s also the reason the US withdrew from the UN. A world war is coming, I believe. I also think that It will be the US, UK, India, Japan and (possibly) Australia against China, Iran, and N. Korea. That’s just a hunch though.

      5. Your assessment is very accurate. It would be against China, Pakistan, Iran, NK, and maybe Turkey. The EU has now understood the threat of Chiese hegemonic designs but hasn’t taken any concrete steps. A salute to the Czech Republic for taking on China and showing a way to other biggest EU countries.

      6. No one can do that. The only thing a country like China understands is power, strength and domination. So, we have to hit them with a hell of a consequence. Only then will they back off.

      7. Believe me, Cherie, we are doing exactly that. Amazing thing is that now the European Union also realizes that. There is a new organization on the lines of NATO is on the cards.

  29. No better analysis could have been done. A very thorough and thoughtful article on the subject. I wonder if any one intends to `Bell The Cat’. India has shown lots of patience. It is treading very cautiously, responsibly but firmly. Let z see how long India can hold its patience. China is not going to back off and the near future would certainly be eventful for the Asian region……

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