Regardless of our acceptance or denial, every geopolitical expert understands that the ‘New Great Game’ is currently underway, with India as the focal point. My concepts of the ‘Ring of Crisis Zones’ and ‘Platter Theory’ have consistently demonstrated their validity. After extensive experimentation, the pawns have ultimately been chosen — Pakistan and Bangladesh. While Bangladesh may require time to confront India militarily, it possesses the capability to undermine India’s Northeast through asymmetric strategies. Notably, Bangladesh has openly exhibited this bold intention in its statements and interactions.

On the other hand, Pakistan has been sufficiently equipped and openly encouraged to confront India across all domains — land, sea, air, cyber, space, and asymmetric. This paper will focus on the capabilities of the Indian Navy to counter Pakistan at sea and will examine its nuclear strategy.

The Nuclear Ambiguity

Introducing ambiguity into nuclear postures is often a deliberate part of deterrence strategy. Deterrence relies on making a credible threat: if an adversary takes a certain action, a costly response will follow. One way states enhance the credibility of their threats is through brinkmanship, which involves taking risks that could inadvertently escalate the situation. By deploying capabilities of unclear nature or intent, such as ambiguous weapons systems, a state may deter adversaries from attacking and risking escalation.

India cleverly used this ambiguity by declaring no-first-use while not specifying what would trigger a nuclear response. The US has also long used ambiguity in its nuclear deterrence posture, including deploying nuclear-armed submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs) during the Cold War. Today, India is again debating adding SLCMs to its nuclear arsenal, while its nuclear doctrine still relies on calculated ambiguity to keep red lines uncertain for opponents.

The Pakistani Moves

The Indian Navy has repeatedly demonstrated its prowess in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), serving as the first responder during crises like the blockade of Pakistan in Operation Sindoor, the Red Sea crisis, and anti-piracy operations. Still, India must remain vigilant against Chinese and Pakistani actions in the region. Pakistan is acquiring four Type 054A/P frigates and eight Type 039B Hangor-class submarines, with the acquisition of the export variant of China’s Yuan-class submarine, the Type 039B, being particularly significant.

Pakistan signed the contract with Beijing in 2015. Four submarines are being built in China, while four are assembled in Pakistan. This not only boosts Pakistan’s shipbuilding capacity but also provides China with a repair and docking facility in the Indian Ocean Region.

The plan was to deliver all eight conventionally powered submarines with air-independent propulsion (AIP) between 2022 and 2028. The first submarine was launched in April 2024, followed by the second in March 2025 and the third in August 2025.

Although some argue that Chinese capabilities are only on paper, the growing number of such platforms in the Pakistan Navy reduces India’s maritime edge. It is also likely that some of these submarines will be equipped with nuclear weapons.

This possibility stems from Pakistan’s inability to obtain a nuclear-powered submarine in the medium term. As a result, Pakistan will continue to rely on diesel-electric submarines, such as the under-construction Type 039B and existing Agosta-class submarines, to carry nuclear weapons at sea.

Pakistan most likely plans to use the 450 km range Babur-3 SLCM as its sea-based nuclear deterrent. The Babur series is based on the BGM-109 Tomahawk missile, which the US launched at Afghanistan in the late 1990s; two of these missiles fell intact in Balochistan. China reverse-engineered the Tomahawk, leading to the development of KD-20 and DH-10 cruise missiles. These missiles finally morphed into the Babur series.

However, Babur-3 is not optimal for nuclear deterrence. Cruise missiles generally carry lighter payloads and have shorter ranges than ballistic missiles, making them less suitable for nuclear weapons at sea. Nonetheless, deploying dual-capable cruise missiles complicates the Indian efforts to determine whether targets are nuclear-armed.

It is also widely known that Pakistan modified some US-made Harpoon cruise missiles to carry nuclear weapons before testing Babur-3. The US completely ignored this development. This modification could enable Pakistan’s surface ships and maritime patrol aircraft to launch nuclear-armed missiles. Furthermore, Pakistan has developed a ship-launched Anti-Ship, Land Attack Missile called Harbah, but its nuclear capability remains unclear. If Harbah is nuclear-capable, it would significantly increase nuclear ambiguity in the Indian Ocean.

The Indian Moves

The 2025 U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission’s report stopped short of accusing China of orchestrating the Pahalgam massacre of 26 civilians in Jammu and Kashmir in April 2025. However, it did accuse China of exploiting the conflict to test and showcase its weapons, in the context of its border tensions with India and its expanding defense industry. China also spread propaganda through fake social media accounts, sharing AI-generated images of supposed debris from Indian fighter jets destroyed by Chinese weapons.

I have repeatedly stated that it is not economically feasible for Pakistan to rapidly acquire large numbers of Chinese weapons. Since 2020, Pakistan has ordered 25 J-10C fighter jets, four Type 054A/P frigates, eight Type 039B submarines, along with tanks, air defense systems, and armored vehicles. After suffering a short defeat in May, Pakistani leaders announced plans to procure 40 J-35A low-observation fighter jets. In my view, in addition to creating a user-maintenance facility for a future conflict, China positioned these weapons to be tested against India at strategic moments like the Pahalgam incident.

To counter such Chinese and Pakistani moves, India is acting swiftly across various domains. This was reflected in Indian Navy Chief Admiral Tripathi’s recent statement that the Navy adds a ship or submarine every 40 days. India has also taken significant steps to strengthen its underwater strike capabilities.

The Indian nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN), INS Arihant, carries K-15 Sagarika SLBMs as its main weapons. With a range of 750-1500 km, it can target Pakistan from the Arabian Sea. INS Arihant is equipped with 12 nuclear-capable K-15s.

Following INS Arihant, India commissioned the second SSBN, INS Arighat. In November 2024, INS Arighat test-launched the 3500 km-range K-4 SLBM, followed by the test of the 8000 km-range K-5 SLBM. Once operational, these SLBMs will serve as a strategic deterrent against both Western and northern adversaries.

In addition to SLBMs, the Indian Navy is testing a range of submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs). The latest test involved a missile based on the Nirbhay subsonic cruise missile program. India is also developing a submarine-launched version of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile.

BrahMos missiles were recently test-fired from naval platforms, days after the Pahalgam incident. While the US views BrahMos as a conventional weapon, Indian media and Pakistani analysts claim it is nuclear-capable. Western experts predict it may become nuclear in the future. Since BrahMos devastated Pakistani military infrastructure during Operation Sindoor, it is deeply feared in Pakistan. This ambiguity benefits Indian military strategy.

The Indian Advantage

Despite the vast Indian Ocean, Pakistan’s SLCMs have a limited range, meaning a submarine would need to approach close to shore to threaten Indian targets. This proximity increases the submarine’s vulnerability to India’s improving anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities.

During ASW operations, Indian naval forces would not be able to reliably identify what weapons a Pakistani vessel carries, potentially leading to attempts to destroy any Pakistani submarine in a crisis. Given Pakistan’s fears of an Indian disarmament strike, it may respond by employing its sea-based weapons if it detects incoming anti-submarine operations.

To counter China-Pakistan collusion in the underwater domain, India has expedited the Mahe-class Anti-Submarine Warfare Shallow Water Craft (ASW-SWC) program. With over 80% indigenous content, eight warships are planned in this class. On November 24, the lead ship INS Mahe was commissioned at Naval Dockyard, Mumbai.

Currently, the Indian Navy has 52 platforms under construction in domestic shipyards. This encompasses next-generation destroyers, stealth frigates, corvettes, and submarines. The interest in IAC2 (Vishal), equipped with Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System (EMALS) and drone capabilities, frequently resurfaces. The Project 75(i), which involves six Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) submarines, is progressing to an advanced stage. The Concept Design Agreement (CDA) for the same has been finalized between Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd (MDL) and Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS). 

Collectively, these developments will enable the Indian Navy to sustain a continuous presence throughout the Indo-Pacific region, engaging in operations that range from carrier strike missions to undersea warfare. The upgraded naval fleet empowers India to secure sea lanes, enhance deterrence, swiftly address regional threats, and counter the increasing naval activities of China and Pakistan. This military buildup underpins India’s aspiration to project power and foster regional stability from the Persian Gulf to the Strait of Malacca. 

The modernization of the Indian Navy transcends merely increasing the number of vessels. By deploying advanced, domestically manufactured surface ships and submarines, India is establishing itself as a maritime power capable of influencing the security and economic landscape of the Indo-Pacific region in the coming decades. With these developments the Indian Navy is making a strategic statement: we are ready to face the ‘New Great Game.’