Bonnie Glaser, the Managing Director of the Indo-Pacific Programme at the German Marshall Fund, a think tank, has warned that the current U.S. strategy of “publicly delivering instructions to India” regarding its foreign policy choices is unlikely to yield the desired results.

In an exclusive interview with IANS on Friday in Washington, Glaser stated that the Trump administration seems to believe that India needs the U.S. more than Washington needs New Delhi.

“The Trump administration appears to think that India will prioritize its relationship with the United States because it needs the U.S. more than the U.S. needs India,” she said.

In response to U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick’s recent statements, where he appeared to set preconditions, including demanding that India “stop being a part of BRICS,” Glaser noted that while “some officials in the Trump administration think strategically, I doubt that Lutnick is one of them.”

“Many senior American officials who have worked diligently over the past two decades to strengthen U.S.-India ties are astonished and saddened by the decline in the bilateral relationship in just a few months,” she added.

On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump shared a picture of Prime Minister Narendra Modi alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggesting that India and Russia seem to have been “lost” to China. Trump wrote on Truth Social, “Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!”

Glaser emphasized that Trump uses social media to “shape the behavior of foreign leaders and others,” but in this instance, she believes the tactic is unlikely to be effective.

“In this latest post, he may think that by highlighting how closely PM Modi and Putin have aligned themselves with President Xi Jinping, those leaders will feel uncomfortable and adjust their policies. I doubt it will be very effective,” she stated.

As relations with the U.S. deteriorate, Glaser suggested that India will likely continue to strengthen ties in various areas with Europe, Japan, South Korea, and other U.S. allies.

She expressed concern that the U.S. will struggle if it attempts to counter China on its own. “Trump isn’t a strategist, and he is focused on making America great again, which, from his perspective, does not require strengthening alignment and cooperation with partners and allies on China and other issues. In my view, the U.S. will fail if it seeks to counter the multitude of challenges that China poses by itself,” she emphasized.

Looking ahead, Glaser warned that a phone call between PM Modi and Trump could be risky. She suggested that the two sides should consider a “cooling-off period.”

“A cooling-off period might be a good idea. Unless our leaders understand that further deterioration of bilateral ties is costly to their national security, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to stabilize the relationship,” she advised.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s tweet today suggests that work has already begun in this direction. He appears to be making an effort to accommodate U.S. President Donald Trump. I am optimistic that the U.S. administration will shift away from a confrontational approach and instead promote a mutually beneficial relationship between the world’s oldest and largest democracies.