Guest article by Brig. RK Singh

Introduction

In reply to a question on Bangladesh Trump said “I will leave Bangladesh to PM Modi”. It is a very big statement as far as US foreign policy is concerned and has consequences for Bangladesh, however since the time statement was made the context has rapidly changed and a new normal in the regional arena has emerged post Op Sindoor. Now, it is also very apt to assume that Bangladesh would have watched Pakistan’s fate due to the ongoing Op Sindoor.  A strategic shift and cohesive military operations against Pakistan may be agonizing to Bangladesh as well. Since the regime change Bangladesh has overtly been speaking against India and conniving and hobnobbing with China – Pakistan axis. India maintained diplomatic silence. A friendly Bangladesh would be a strategic choice and desire of India but violent student uprisings, the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, and atrocities against minorities do not instill confidence in the present caretaker government. The behaviour evokes a sense of challenge to peace and bilateral harmony. Diplomatic perspicacity in such an ambiance is expected from Bangladesh.

Epicenter-Bangladesh

India plausibly has a strong regional impact in the Indian Subcontinent and IOR. Liberation of East Pakistan and the subsequent birth of Bangladesh in 1971 was a true reflection of resolve by the Indian Government and the Armed Forces. The victory was so incomparable that the West grasped the might of India with a pinch. Far superlative in terms of planning, execution, and birth of a new nation than any of the contemporary US or NATO maneuvers across the world. Characteristically, Bangladesh post-independence tried to maintain its ethnic, linguistic, cultural identity and secular policies but successive student uprisings pushed it towards a strong Islamic identity.  The recent ouster of Sheikh Hasina and the oppression of minorities echoes the same cord.

Bangladesh again after 54 years is witnessing Pakistan suffer a controlled, precise, swift, and monitored assault on its terrorist infrastructure and military might. The effect is humiliating for Pakistan. Coupled with this India has suspended Indus Water Treaty and trade. Good behaviour from Bangladesh is equally expected to align itself with dynamic regional happenings.

Assessed Vision

Bangladesh is part of the same umbilical cord as that of India and the way it is carved on the subcontinent completes the Indian mosaic. The influence of India in the subcontinent cannot be overlooked. China since the evolution of Bangladesh has tried to gain strategic access through the sea route as also threatens the narrow Siliguri corridor. China is a strong business partner and arms supplier to Bangladesh. Bangladesh has to understand geopolitics with realistic outcomes. Being an economically poor country it may be exploited by China. As a matter of fact, China is also vexed with the fate of CPEC due to the Baloch movement which is like a sunk cost. China will consider investments with due diligence since Bangladesh is not a love child like Pakistan. For Bangladesh, it is better to be self-reliant or depend on friendly neighbours. Bangladesh is surrounded by India and the Indian Ocean. Bangladesh has to calibrate its foreign policies considering regional geopolitics.    

It is for Bangladesh to observe India’s strong responses to Doklam and other standoffs with China in the last 10 years, remember impressions of India’s deft dealings with Russia, Ukraine, EU, Global South, West Asia, USA, and others in recent times. Vaccine diplomacy is another feather in the cap and now Op Sindoor. India has the heft in dealing with emerging regional situations diplomatically, economically, or by other means as well.

Disorder in Bangladesh

The situation in Bangladesh is very fluid, the uprising is not subsiding, Yunus is a very weak personality but a hardcore anti-secular, and hates Awami League to the core. Vultures like Pakistan are also finding opportunities in the turmoil to further wrench India on multiple fronts. India is resilient to emerging scenarios and regulated responses will layer the vulnerabilities. The sense of violence and experiences of horror on the minorities is ubiquitous inside Bangladesh. India needs to act fast and resiliently to return all illegal Bangladeshi for a better diplomatic understanding and strengthen its dynamic surveillance from air, land, and sea borders. Unfenced portions of open IB with Bangladesh need to be fenced post haste.

Bangladesh is a lower riparian state and will always rely on India in any major crisis. ‘Operation Brahma’ in support of the earthquake crisis in Myanmar is a suitable example.

Glitches and Initiatives

The recent talks on the sidelines of BIMSTEC with Dhaka and New Delhi are a welcome step but Yunus remains an enigma whether to build a peaceful Bangladesh, go for elections, spread harmony within the nation, or unilaterally pass unsavory remakes against India and intermittently demand extradition of Sheikh Hasina which leaves an uncertainty. Yunus should aim first for a stable Bangladesh. His remarks are out of the ordinary to invite China to provide a sea route to the Seven Sister states of India when the situation with Pakistan and India was at a new low. The argument was childish as well as venomous. China understands India’s positioning around Bangladesh and would definitely eschew interference. There is a dire need for early elections and stability in Bangladesh.

China Factor

            China may act as a mature nation and respect the recent thaw in the standoff on LAC for stability, and economic growth and not engage in a Bangladesh quagmire. China has to excel in a tariff war with the US.    

Developments

New Delhi has rescinded the transshipment facility with Dhaka to third countries for national security and for promoting its own exports. The circular was issued on 08 Apr 25.  India has now additionally restricted garments import through land ports with Bangladesh which will have implications on business and Indian companies may plan to close their ventures within Bangladesh.  These are subtle brushes to Bangladesh to coexist peacefully and respect the democratic rights of minorities in their own country. The USA has levied a tariff on Bangladesh and this would further accentuate the already weak economic depth. The posting of the Bangladesh High Commission on 08 Apr 25 may be a precursor to other upcoming developments. Bangladesh needs to restore faith in bilateral relations safeguard minorities, control border areas, shun rhetoric, and act expeditiously to stand stable. Sound bilateral and economic ties are the backbone of peaceful relations. Bangladesh is destroying its history and becoming radical which will definitely make them even weaker and lower their self-esteem in the comity of nations.  

Conclusion

India needs to be firm diplomatically, and economically, and geographic surveillance of Bangladesh is a necessity. Bangladesh has a choice to extend a hand of friendship before it sinks into bottomless chaos. The probability remains high given the fragile political power, economic stifle; and radical emboldening pushing Bangladesh into deep turbulence. People choose for themselves but sanity is expected.