German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer once famously said, “It’s lonely at the top.” This phrase was popularized by Randy Newman in his 1972 song “Lonely at the Top. ” As India strives to reach the top, it must prepare for this reality. The recent Operation Sindoor illustrates that there will likely be more instances in the future where India must confront its challenges and battles independently.

In the modern era, during peacetime, various countries engage in agreements with one another. This includes the sale of arms and ammunition, establishing military infrastructure, and conducting combat training and exercises among interested parties. Adversaries take note of these activities and often conduct similar exercises with their allies.

However, wartime presents a different scenario. Responsible nations typically avoid jumping into conflicts and instead seek to resolve them. This was not the case with ‘Operation Sindoor.’ India observed provocative behavior from China, Turkey, and a country of no consequence Azerbaijan. The behavior was just shy of an act of war.

The Chinese Checkers

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s Arms Transfers Database indicates that the United States has historically been one of the largest suppliers of conventional arms to Pakistan. However, by 1972, China had become the leading arms supplier to Pakistan in terms of cumulative value, a status it has maintained ever since.

Chinese arms transfers to Pakistan began to increase significantly around 2008. According to SIPRI, China emerged as Pakistan’s largest military supplier in that year, which coincided with a substantial decline in U.S. arms exports to the country. SIPRI data shows that China’s share of Pakistan’s defense purchases rose from 45% in 2008 to 70% in 2017, while the U.S. contribution decreased to just 12% in 2017. Currently, 81% of Pakistan’s arms and ammunition are supplied by China.

While every country aimed to expand its arms market, China pursued a different strategy in the Indian subcontinent. China’s strategic planning seems robust as the country braces for a potential major conflict and secures its energy routes; 80% of China’s energy needs are fulfilled through the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). However, China faces two significant challenges: the choke points of Malacca and Hormuz.

To reach the Indian Ocean created alternate routes. The shortest route is the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC). This 1,700 km route links Kyaukpyu in Myanmar to Kunming in China. The CMEC is viewed as a beneficial project because it connects the Bay of Bengal with the more prosperous regions of Eastern and Southern China, primarily traversing hospitable terrain. However, ongoing conflicts among various factions in Myanmar may hinder the utilization of this project shortly.

Consequently, the planners in the People’s Liberation Army are relying on the 2,000 km China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). This route connects Gwadar in Pakistan to Kashgar in China and serves as their primary corridor to access the Indian Ocean without being bogged down in the Malacca Strait. This highlights the strategic importance of Pakistan to China. Despite China’s repeated invitations for India to join the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in general and CPEC in particular, India has opted out of these projects. India disputes the CPEC because it passes through Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir (POJK), bringing two major powers into direct contention.

The Strategy and the Pahalgam Massacre

To secure CPEC and achieve its aims, China had to keep Pakistan economically poor and militarily strong. China has supplied more than $20 billion worth of arms to Pakistan. This includes:

• 40 J-35A low observation fighter jet (planned)
• 20 J-10CE fighter aircraft (a derivative of the Israeli Lavi project)
• JF-17 Block III aircraft (powered by Russian Klimov RD-93 engines)
• Wing Loong drones (similar to the US MQ-1 Predator)
• Type 054A/P frigates
• Type 039B submarines (planned)
• C-802 anti-ship cruise missiles (Range 120 km, Mach 0.9)
• Surface-to-air missiles:
  • Long-range HQ-9P (Range 120 km, Mach 4, HQ-9B has a range of 300 km)
  • Medium-range LY-80 (also known as HQ-16A, range 40 km, Mach 2.5)
  • Short-range FM-90 or HQ-7B (Range 15 km, Mach 1.2)
• 240 PL-15E air-to-air missiles (Range 80-90 miles, an advanced version of Israel’s Python-8)
• Four ZDK-03 early-warning aircraft acquired in 2008, converted to electronic warfare aircraft in early 2025
• Launched five satellites for Pakistan to enhance their military intelligence and surveillance of Indian assets
  • PRSS-1
  • Pak TES-1A
  • Pak Sat-MM1
  • PRSC-EO1
  • ICUBE-Q
• Huawei satellite phone with messaging services linked to China’s BeiDou satellite navigation system for infiltrators.

 

It is a well-known fact that China is supporting Pakistan as its proxy. China’s influence can be seen in the Pahalgam massacre, and this becomes even more evident when we examine Chinese activities following the incident. In anticipation of possible action against Pakistan (Operation Sindoor), China took the following steps:

• Secretly supplied an unknown number of PL-15 using Egyptian IL-76
• Dispatched over 200 ‘fishing boats’ to the Indian Ocean to monitor Indian naval activities.
• Chinese survey vessel Da Yang Yi Hao, equipped with advanced sensors in the Indian Ocean acted as mother ship to coordinate the surveillance activities.
• Provided real-time battlefield surveillance to support and coordinate ground and air military operations.
• Helped Pakistan to integrate multi-domain warfare strategies.
• Extended extensive diplomatic support to Pakistan at the UN Security Council, working closely with Turkey and Bangladesh. At the UN Security Council committee 1267 on counter-terrorism, China prevented any references to The Resistance Force (TRF), which is an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba.

Pakistan’s Return Gift

Pakistan has been at China’s service since the 1950s. If China helped Pakistan with technology transfer, Pakistan also gave China access to Western technologies like the crashed US Black Hawk helicopter at Abbottabad. The unexploded Tomahawk missiles found in Balochistan helped China in reverse engineering and developing KD-20 (or CJ-20, launched from H-6K strategic bomber, range 1500 km) and DH-10 (or CJ-10, land attack, range 1500 km, subsonic) cruise missiles.

This technological advancement has facilitated the maturation of Babur (Hatf-VII, range 750 km, Mach 0.7) missiles, providing a secure second-strike capability. Despite Pakistan’s limited role, the JF-17 (based on J-7 which was based on Mig-21, and incorporated F-16 features), is a notable example of a joint research and development initiative with Chinese counterparts, establishing a precedent for future R&D and co-production of major defense platforms.

The Most Crucial Help During Operation Sindoor

In addition to military hardware, China extended its support to Pakistan in the realm of satellite technology and intelligence sharing. China placed five satellites for exclusive use in observing Indian military assets. Satellite assistance is crucial in modern warfare, as it enables real-time surveillance, monitoring of troop movements, and effective communication channels. The Chinese satellite coverage helped Pakistan reorganize and redeploy its radar and air defense systems in a better way. The whole game plan indicates that Beijing’s involvement was more extensive than initially believed.

After the Pahalgam massacre and during Operation Sindoor, China actively participated in information warfare to support Pakistan’s narrative. Chinese state media outlets have echoed Pakistan’s denials regarding its involvement in the Pahalgam attack and have suggested alternative narratives, including labeling the attack as a potential “false flag” operation by India. Additionally, Chinese-controlled social media platforms have spread unverified claims of Pakistani military successes, such as the alleged downing of Indian Rafale jets, to undermine India’s military reputation and promote Chinese weaponry.

China is Tutoring Pakistan

China has adopted the multi-domain warfare (MDW) concept to enhance its conventional military capabilities by integrating operations across information, cyber, and space domains. This approach involves coordinated actions across all military forces and components. To improve its effectiveness in warfare, Pakistan is actively embracing MDW principles. Since 2013, China has granted Pakistan access to the BeiDou satellite navigation system, which has enhanced its intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities. Additionally, China has provided 5G communications networks to bolster Pakistan’s non-contact warfare capabilities.

The People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force (PLASSF), now known as the PLA Information Support Force (PLAISF), collaborates closely with the Pakistani military to enhance its technical expertise in multi-domain battle operations. This cooperation aims to improve Pakistan’s ability to conduct agile, high-intensity kinetic and non-kinetic operations targeting India’s military and civilian infrastructure. A team of PLAISF was present in Pakistan throughout Operation Sindoor to assist them in utilizing all aspects of the MDW.

The Chinese experts were assisting in the standardization of processes, such as logistics and training, and the integration of network-centric warfare components. The compatibility of personnel and domains to enable joint activities during military contingencies, as outlined in a joint operational plan was regularly looked into. In this context, China and Pakistan already conduct joint military exercises across their army, air force, and naval forces, referred to as “Warrior,” “Shaheen,” and “Sea Guardians,” respectively.

China is no benevolent nation and has a purpose behind every help it extends. The Chinese Navy (PLAN) has long sought military access to Gwadar Port in Balochistan. In return, China had promised to provide stealth fighter jets to the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), though Pakistan was demanding both stealth and hypersonic technology, coupled with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). With recent reports of significantly discounted deliveries (up to 50%) of the J-35A to Pakistan, along with PAF pilots undergoing training in China, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has made its intentions clear. They are willing to share cutting-edge technology when it serves their interests. However, there is no clarity on the transfer of hypersonic technology with MIRV technology.

As a result, India will soon see PLAN ships operating in its vicinity. The PLAN’s access to basing facilities at Gwadar Port will affect power projection and accessibility for India and its Indo-Pacific partners, including the United States and France, within the Western Indian Ocean region.

Why Narrative Building Matters

Despite losing the kinetic War during ‘Operation Sindoor’, Pakistan claimed victory which was heavily based on Chinese weapon systems. It looked like Pakistan was the advertising agency and the Chinese defence industry was their client. China relished this “DeepSeek moment” for the Chinese weapons industry.

Despite subpar performance by the Chinese systems, the MDW achieved the following for China:

• ‘Operation Sindoor’ gave a chance to China to test its military ware in real-time situations against Indian, Western, and Israeli equipment.
• Without any proof, China created huge hype around the J-10C fighter jet and PL-15 BVR AAM and declared them game-changers. The Western media on the Chinese payroll helped them in building this false narrative.
• The hype around J-10C worked. The broken Chinese economy saw a ray of hope in a defence product market. Bangladesh is considering placing an order for 16 J-10C fighter jets. Indonesia wants to buy used J-10Cs. Azerbaijan wants to increase its order of JF-17 from 16 to 40 without learning lessons from the plight of Myanmar and Nigeria.

The Elusive Indian Tactical Mistake

In his interviews with Reuters and Bloomberg, the Indian Chief of Defence Staff Gen Anil Chauhan stated that on the first day of the conflict India made a tactical mistake. What was this tactical mistake he was referring to?

In standard military doctrine, the objective is to suppress enemy air defenses and attain air superiority before attacking ground targets. However, it appears that the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) mission was strategically designed to avoid provoking any Pakistani military retaliation. This was an assumption and a tactical mistake. The Indian pilots were instructed to proceed with their mission despite the heightened alert status of the entire Pakistani air defense system and the presence of Pakistani jets already in the sky. This displayed that Pakistan had moved on from the Balakot confrontation in 2019. Chinese equipment and doctrines were much more embedded in the Pakistani system than ever before.

However, the Indian Air Force soon realized the mistake. It got back to the standard procedures, initially targeting Pakistani air defence and radar systems before focusing on ground targets. The Indian jets deployed a variety of missiles, loitering munitions, and drones, even while faced with the Chinese-supplied air defense systems operated by Pakistan.

India successfully targeted a “remarkable range of targets” inside Pakistan early on 10^th May. The Indian military announced a coordinated strike in which it launched missiles against 11 Pakistani air bases nationwide (though strangely Pakistan says it was hit at 18 bases). This included the strategic Nur Khan airbase near Rawalpindi, close to the Pakistani military headquarters (now some reports suggest that the Nur Khan is a US military base). The farthest target was located in Bholari, approximately 140 km (86 miles) from Karachi.

The Turkish Tamasha

As the ‘Boycott Turkey’ movement gained momentum in India, reports have emerged indicating that Turkey assisted Pakistan not only by supplying drones but also by facilitating military operations against India. According to reports, over 350 Turkish-made drones were used in various attacks across the International Border (IB) between India and Pakistan. Turkish military operatives in Pakistan were reportedly involved in these drone strikes, and there were casualties among Turkish drone operators as well.

Pakistan is said to have utilized the Bayraktar TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) and YIHA drones in its operations against India, using them to designate targets and possibly conduct kamikaze strikes to threaten Indian forward positions or supply convoys. During the night of 7-8^th May, the Pakistan Army allegedly violated Indian airspace at 36 locations across the western border, targeting military infrastructure with approximately 300-400 drones.

Reports indicated that six Turkish military aircraft arrived in Pakistan, allegedly carrying Turkish-made weapons and military equipment, although Ankara denied these claims. While Turkey could not dispute the presence of its C-130 military aircraft, which was tracked by global air surveillance, it maintained that the aircraft had arrived solely for refueling. Shortly afterward, Turkey also dispatched a naval warship, the TCG Bykada (F-512), a corvette, to Karachi Port in a display of military support for Pakistan. Turkey described this as a “routine port call,” while Pakistan referred to it as a “goodwill visit.”

Turkey also facilitated the PAF pilots to exercise with the Qatari air force. This exposed PAF pilots to Rafale fighter jets operated by the Qatari Air Force. Some reports also suggest that the PAF pilots flew the Qatari Rafale to understand the machine better. Turkey also exposed PAF to the working of the S-400 air defence system, which they operate in defiance of NATO operational practices.

Turkey is the only major country in the world that did not denounce the Pahalgam massacre. Post the massacre, Turkey publicly aligned with Pakistan, expressed solidarity with its narrative, and vowed to support Pakistan in any steps it took against India.

The Way Forward

The induction of the J-35A into the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) and the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) forces in Gwadar poses a significant threat to India. Pakistan is expected to require two to three years to fully integrate the J-35A and its associated infrastructure into the PAF. As such, India should be prepared for another potential confrontation with Pakistan by 2027-28. This timeline aligns with my assessment of simultaneous attacks by China and its proxies in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean.

Turkey and China’s direct involvement in military operations against India should be viewed as aggressive posturing and effectively an act of war. This behavior is likely to persist in the coming years. Therefore, India must accelerate the production of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), Astra Mk III, Kusha Air Defence systems, and various other military advancements. The time to act is now, as we could face unexpected challenges in just a couple of years. While India has communicated that we are peaceful, but that doesn’t mean we are harmless. This posture by India must be matched with rapid indigenization on a war footing.