IRAN DEAL: HAS CHINA STEPPED ON A VISIBLE LANDMINE

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Iranian War Painting: Courtesy Christie

“The smiles of the Chinese and the Russians are as harmful and destructive to Iran as Trump’s frown” – Journalist Shirzad Abdollahi in Hamdeli

THE MOTHER OF ALL DEALS

In a recent development in July 2020, Iran-China inked a $400 billion deal. This is a 25-year pact:

  • Iran doesn’t gain much from the deal, other than immediate relief from the American sanctions.
  • Which would get China a considerable bargain on the Iranian oil.
  • China will invest $400 billion in the Islamic nation over a period of 25 years.
  • China will invest $280 billion in oil, gas, and petrochemicals.
  • China will invest $120bn in transport and manufacturing, within the first five years.
  • The deal would expand economic development in 100 odd diverse fields, including banking and infrastructure, such as airports, high-speed railways, subways, and 5G telecommunications(this would give Iran, China-style censorship of the internet).
  • Iran-China set up an industrial town in the southern port city of Jask, to establish and develop different industries, including petrochemical, refinery, aluminum, and steel industries.
  • China will get priority to bid on any new project in Iran that is linked to these sectors.
  • China will get a 12 percent discount and it can delay payments by up to two years.
  • China will be able to pay in any currency it desires.
  • China will receive total discounts of nearly 32 percent.
  • 5,000 Chinese military personnel to be stationed in the country to protect their interests and the Chinese air force would be given access to Iranian bases.
Xi Jinping and Rouhani : Courtesy Reuters

The pact was first proposed in a January 2016 trip to Iran by Chinese President Xi Jinping, during which the two sides agreed to establish their ties based on a ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’, while announcing discussions would begin aimed at concluding a 25-year bilateral pact. Around the same time in May 2016, Indian PM Modi visited Iran to sign the 10-year Chabahar port contract. Was Modi in Iran for a great future gameplan. The answer is ‘Yes’. The game plan was to:

  • Counter China in Iran.
  • Render CPEC a failed project.

INDIA-IRAN CHABAHAR PORT TIMELINE

  • Iran’s first deep-sea port, Chabahar is just 72 km from the Pakistani Gwadar port and has tremendous strategic importance. If Iran’s enemies were to shut down the Straits of Hormuz, Chabahar port, being 300 km to the east of the straits would be able to function, reducing Iran’s vulnerability to international pressure.
  • Operating Chabahar port provides India with a foothold at the mouth of the strategic Straits of Hormuz, through which a third of all the world’s sea-borne oil passes.
  • 2003– India started interaction for the development of Chabahar.
  • 2003-2014– The development idea remained on paper.
  • 2014– Major push came in to take things ahead.
  • 2015– A MoU(Memorandum of Understanding) signed. 
  • 2016– PM Modi converted the MoU in a 10-year contract, to equip and operate the Chabahar port.
  • 2016– A MoU between Iranian President Rouhani, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, and Indian Railway Construction Company Limited(IRCON), with the Iranian Rail Ministry to construct a 628 km rail line, at the cost of $1.6 billion, from Chabahar port to Zahedan, which will be extended to Zaranj across the border in Afghanistan, and Sarakhs.
  • 2018– Due to US sanctions and difficulties in the execution of a long term contract, a short term contract was signed by visiting Iranian President Rouhani.
  • December 2018– Port commences operations. Since then, as many as 4500 containers have moved from India through Chabahar.
  • 2019– Washington exempts India to develop the Chabahar port in Iran, although the sanctions against trade in oil continued.
  • July 2020– Reports emerge that Iran has decided to proceed with the construction of a rail line from Chabahar port to Zahedan on its own, due to delays from the Indian government in funding.
  • India refutes the claims, and states that it is committed to the project. It further states that Iran is responsible for the earth-moving and preparing the ground for the tracks. Indian responsibility is ‘super-structure’ which includes the tracks and rakes. 
  • Surprisingly, Pakistan was overjoyed with the news that China is replacing India in Iran as a major foreign power. However, there was a hush after the initial jubilation, when they realized that China is moving away from them and the CPEC.

I had predicted an year ago that China would take initiative in Iran sooner than later and the Indian game plan would work out. It might happen that Iran hands over the Chabahar port to China in toto, once the short-term Indian contract expires. In that case, China might abandon the Gwadar port altogether or make it a low key affair. There are four scenarios emerging in the very fast-changing landscape of geopolitics. Let us analyze along with relevant Chinese stratagems:

1. India volunteered for the Chabahar project to sabotage the Pakistani project, CPEC. China understands the vulnerability of CPEC, which passes through volatile POK & Balochistan. Indias have shown their vehement objection to the project, since it passes through Indian territory of POK. China took the Indian bait and shifted its focus to Iran. (Feign Madness but Keep your Balance– Hide behind the mask of a fool, a drunk, or a madman to create confusion about your intentions and motivations).

  • Due to the vulnerability of the existing CPEC, China may divert it through the Afghan territory of the Wakhan corridor. The only common border with China.
  • The Wakhan Corridor was born from the strategic logic, drawn by a joint Russian-British entity to prevent present-day Tajikistan(Russia) and POK(British India) from having a direct border.
  • There are three main advantages of building infrastructure through the Wakhan corridor. 
    • The inhabitants of the region share a common history, culture, religion, and geography thus has fewer chances of disruption. 
    • China is already working on building a road through Wakhjir Pass. Presently it is far from completion, however, Afghan workers have made significant progress, and eventually, it would end up connecting Afghanistan’s road network to the Karakoram Highway, which is part of CPEC, linking Kashgar in Xinjiang to Islamabad.
    • China would have options of either extending the Afghan section of the network further to connect with Chabahar or planned BRI via Tehran with the Port of Jask.

2. India-US have an understanding wherein the US gave India waver on the Chabahar Port, in return India made no progress on the rail project, so that China jumps into the trap and expands its resources, far and wide. Once China exposes itself in the region, Iran could be choked, to take the Chinese project to its logical conclusion: failure. (Lure them onto the roof, then take away the Ladder– With baits and deceptions, lure your enemy into treacherous terrain, then cut off his lines of communication and avenue of escape; to save himself, he must fight both your own forces and the elements of nature). Iranian populace and opposition leaders are unhappy that Iran is getting into a debt trap as well as allowing foreign forces into their land. They are vehemently opposing the one-sided pact: 

  • Critics are comparing the proposed Iran-China deal to the 1828 Treaty of ‘Turkmenchay’ between Persia and tsarist Russia, under which the Persians ceded control of territory in the South Caucasus. 
  • The pact is also being compared to the humiliating ‘Reuter Concession’ made in 1872, between the Iranian ruler Nasir Al-Din Shah and British banker Baron Julius de Reuter. Reuter was given significant control over Persian roads, factories, the extraction of resources, telegraphs, mills, and other public works in exchange for some of the revenue for 20 years. 
  • The relationship between Tehran and Beijing has long been recognized as benefiting China far more than Iran. The Iranian regime has become so miserable economically that it is transgressing its own revolutionary values. 
  • Israel also feels threatened with the deal. Any dollar going into the Iranian system is one that could likely be spent against Israel. 
  • Part of the deal may be a massive sale of weapons to Iran. China plans to sell Iran, attack helicopters, fighter jets, tanks and more, once the UN arms embargo expires in October 2020.
  • Tel Aviv light rail project and the Iranian railway project have common Chinese-owned companies. China could use the companies operating in Israel and Iran for political leverage on Israel, what they had done in the past.
  • Chinese companies have not always fared well in Iran.
    • The Iranians have complained of being fobbed off with third-rate, overpriced goods.
    • China National Petroleum Corporation was expelled from the major Azadegan oilfield and Iran Liquefied Natural Gas project because of slow progress.
    • In 2012, Sinohydro Group was pushed out of a $2bn contract to build Bakhtiari Dam in south-western Iran, and replaced by Khatam Al Anbiya, the construction arm of the Revolutionary Guards.
Son of the last Shah of Iran

3. The least likely scenario is the understanding between India and China. In this scenario, the government of India gives up the Chabahar rail project(and eventually the Chabahar port itself), in return, China connects the Wakhan corridor to Chabahar port and not with CPEC. China’s trade routes are secured and CPEC remains in limbo.

4. The last scenario that is not being considered is ‘was India caught napping?’. That is not the case. Indian diplomats are astute and well respected in the diplomatic circles. They were very well aware of the situation and ready for the showdown for a long time.

CHINESE DESIRE TO BE GREAT AGAIN – IN A HURRY

The 18th-century writer philosopher Thomas Robert Malthus predicted a grim future of the Earth, based on his theory, which is popularly referred to as the Malthusian Catastrophe. Malthus predicted that a growing population will soon outpace the planet’s agricultural production capacity. In other words, at some point, there will be far too many people and very limited food supply, leading to great unrest. Though the modern scientific and technological know-how has proved Malthus wrong, the Chinese may prove him right in a different way, altogether. At the rate at which China is planning to expand, soon it would have too many projects and very limited funds. The Chinese regime, in its desire to be great again, is spreading itself too wide and far, at breakneck speed. The Chinese leadership is wasting hard-working Chinese citizen’s money in faraway lands, with no foreseeable return in the near future. Iranians are very strong nationalist. They do not like any external involvement or interference, beyond a certain limit. This proposition makes Chinese success in Iran a very slim one. Similar Chinese zeal of $200 billion has failed in Africa. Post-pandemic China is looking at loan defaults, and requests for waivers from most of the African nations. China is also staring at economic blockade from the Western and Asian blocks, due to its role in the pandemic. China’s recent handling of Indo-Tibetan border, aggression in the South China Sea, Hong Kong National Security Law, treatment of Uighur & Tibetan minorities, and regular threats to Taiwan might become its death knell.

Has China bitten the Indian bullet or it is smarter than that, only time would tell. However, if India wants to emerge as a future Superpower, it has to start working on it, today. This lesson from Niccolò Machiavelli, the Italian Renaissance diplomat, philosopher, and writer, is a very apt and important one for India- ”There is nothing more difficult to take in hand, more perilous to conduct, or more uncertain in its success than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things.”


Data used if any is available in the public domain. Copyright © 2018-2020 Insightful Geopolitics. All rights reserved. This article or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without written permission.

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122 thoughts

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It is indeed a one-sided deal, which Iranians populace would reject.

      1. For sure they should. A once great Persia could never fall so low as to accept such unreasonable Chinese conditions! I do try not to voice a political opinion on my blog! But on yours, there’s no harm 🙂 done!

      2. The very basis of the Iranian revolution was to reduce foreign influence. The Iranian leadership is faltering on its own tenets. The surprising response was from the Pakistani quarters. Initially, they were jubilant, but once they realized that their all-weather friend is investing $200bn in Iran, and it would hurt CPEC, there was complete radio silence. China has promised to invest only $60 odd billion in Pakistan.

  1. Wow, that was interesting. It reminded me of the evil general in a James Bond film when he played war games with toy soldiers in Geopolitical map, you gave a picture of standing way way back.

    1. Hehe… Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. To pretend to ignore the enemy is the best way to seduce the enemy.

      1. “To pretend to ignore the enemy is the best way to seduce the enemy.” I have to ponder that. I’ve seen some famous people do that. It triggers my PsyOp radar.

  2. China’s aims are obvious and countries are waking up to their designs. No one wants to go the Sri Lankan way.

    Chinese interests in Chabahar was obvious from the outset, but India could not continue with it under US pressure.

    China was and not is in any hurry – they only bribe their way through the political corridors.

    Iran had to find market for its oil – that too where the US has the least influence. Who else can they depend at this juncture of sanctions? Its only China and China will take its pound of flesh first and ensure cheap supply of Iranian oil.

    1. Thank you so much, Reji, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It is indeed, China, which is milking hapless Iran. However, China has to understand that Iran is not Venezuela. It is in a very volatile location and proposition. Every country in the region would be ready to sabotage Iran and its plans. Saudi Arabia and Israel would especially not like a rising Iran.

  3. Really enlightening treatise on the Chinese reckless quest for power & Global leadership. This can be an Indian century if the Indians use their chances well. Ladakh, South China, Iran,… etc is giving India an enviable opportunity to thrash China hard.

    1. Thank you so much, Francis, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. We Indians have to do a lot of leg work before the world would be ready to acknowledge our rightful position in the world order. Self-reliance in armament is just one of the things.

  4. Insightful, as the title says. But I doubt China will give up Pakistan, if only to keep India encircled.

    1. These are the theories to ponder upon. For China the biggest drawback in the CPEC is its transition through Gilgit-Baltistan. They surely won’t give up Gwadar, but what would they do with two major ports just 72 km apart. So even if it gives them strategic edge it would drain them financially.

  5. Definitely a new perspective…Is it giving a face saver to China,one loss one supposed win,though with economic cost…..removing the Pakistan altogether from the equation…keeping Russia in loop…options kept which way,when and how Trump sways,not altogether abandoning Iran…..may be there is some distant vision for POK….. Well articulated article….well done dear

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. Geopolitics is an ever-changing canvas, where there are no permanent enemies and no permanent friends. If Iran suites China more than Pakistan, China would not think twice. And this investment isn’t just for nothing.

  6. the news of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’, between China and Iran requires a deep thinking from Indian Government since China wants to replace India for any investment plan, including of course Chabahar project and also railway construction by Indian company> If this hppens (which Iran has today disputed), then it is not a good news for India.

    Historically the relationship between India are very old, and i am of the opinion,Iranians are not oblivious of the intentions of Chinese. Chinese wants to have a foothold in any country wherein China can stay permanent in that country. The countries concerned should dispassionately think about the intent of Chinese and presently when all the countries are fighting the Covid-19 pandemic but Chinese are busy in their investments for getting maximum benefits.

    Your write-up is really very timely and most relevant.

    1. Thank you so much, Harbans, once again for your continued patronage.
      The Indian diplomats are astute and well respected in the diplomatic circuit. I am sure they saw it coming when the US didn’t give oil import clearance for India from Iran. Therefore they were prepared and would have done their homework.
      It would not be a walkover for China in Iran. The road ahead is tough. On the other hand, the $1.6b rail project was commercially not viable as per many experts. Therefore, it mostly had strategic importance at a very high cost.

      1. Allin all, the relationship between India and Iran should not just go since it has age old angle but we have to take into cognizance the relationship as it pans out based on today’s realities.

        China has placed so many eggs in one basket which would be difficult to take on and carry forward. The history of British empire is a case on point. Nothing goes indefinitely.

      2. That is right, Harbans. If the relationship is deep enough, they would come back later. Today’s reality is that Iran is against the wall and any country that gives them the support, they would grab it with both hands. In this case it is China with investment plans. It really suits them.
        As they say “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”.

      3. Nice interpretation. Time is the best judge. What is store for us is unpredictable in the environment which would be coming to fore.🙂🙂

      4. Unpredictability can also be predicted, some from the history and some from the critical thinking. After all, the other person or country also has a reference point. The key is to find that reference point, after that, it is just a matter of time when all secrets unfold.

      5. Till such time, the truth is dawned, it may be very late and when it is too late, the consequences would be worst. in 1962, everything was predictable but our reaction was really very weak and spineless. 😥🙏

      6. China is very good at deception and misinformation. In the 1962 war, they displayed that they had hardly lost any soldiers while spreading the news of heavy casualties on the Indian side. That propaganda was not countered, and that broke the morale of the soldiers. We came to know of this only in the 90s when the files were declassified.
        You have rightly said that we should prepare well this time around.

      7. China is a close society with central leadership hiding or manipulating every affair of the state. How of their men died in Ladakh is a case in point. We want to give credit to our fighting forces but theirs is a different government.🙏🙏

      8. China is indeed a surveillance state. The government of China has affected the psyche of Chinese citizens so badly that today they are ok with bartering their freedom for economic gains. This has been revealed many Chinese who interact with me.
        It would be saddest for a nation and families, not to give a befitting burial to its soldiers.

      9. Please go through my write-up on AVOIDANCE OF CONFLICTING SITUATIONS BUT NOT AT THE COST OF SELF-ESTEEM and offer your enlightened views.😥🙏

  7. This post is well structured as is needed to elucidate a strategy.

    Discounts are obvious but allowance of such long delayed payments !

    “Feign madness but keep your balance” pays a visit to legend of the Eight Immortals.

    Tradeoff is the key to any tactical movement, as is between the routes here.

    However, I suspect the feasibility of such long two-and-half decades of pact on resources that Iran claims “we own”, rather than “such means as we possess” – quoting the principle of Prince KW von Metternich.

    1. Thank you once again for your continued patronage and very informed reviews.
      The road ahead for China is not easy. Iranians don’t trust China for various reasons. And now Pakistan is also upset that their all-weather friend is investing $400 bn in their neighborhood whereas in their own country it is meager $60 bn.

  8. Thank you for this post – as usual, a well-written and absolutely fascinating progression of political moves! Hope I live long enough to see an outcome, but possibly the process is never-ending, like the Myth of Sisyphus…

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and your continued patronage. Iran is very different from other nations. They are very touchy about their sovereignty, which would make the Chinese task difficult in that country.

  9. Iran must be desperate if they’re allowing the Xi Jinping’s Sinicization of Islam into their country with open arms. These 25 years give China a chance to clear all of Islam from their own northern areas … then all the way down to the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and the Arabian Sea. Big gamble, but China certainly has the Army that could accomplish such a feat.

    1. Thank you so much, Karmi, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. China surely can do it, but Iranian citizens are very nationalistic in nature. They don’t like external forces and workers on their soil. The worst response is from the EU. They have kneeled down in front of China. One would see the official statements coming from the US, Australia, Japan, and even minnows like Vietnam, but not the EU.
      If we do not take a devil head-on, it would keep coming back to haunt us.

  10. Prophetically the US is not going be involved. As a world power something will awaken America and Russia to their senses. I do hope that awakening will come through prayer!💕🙏💕

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. It is not the US or Russia, they would come around. The worst response is from the EU. They have kneeled down in front of China. One would see the official statements against China coming from the US, Australia, Japan, and even minnows like Vietnam, but not the EU.
      If we do not take a devil head-on, it would keep coming back to haunt us.

  11. Extremely well built up scenarios along with explanation of the China Iran deal $400 Billion deal for 25 years. This is a sinister plan of China to debt trap Iran which will continue to satiate the Chinese need of energy security and provide a market for sale of military platforms while generating jobs for its massive population.
    Its always a pleasure to read your strategic write ups which are informative and thought provoking.

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. Iranian citizens are very nationalistic in nature. They don’t like external forces and workers on their soil. They are also aware of poor Chinese workmanship and corrupt practices. Xi has no options left but to go out and try out everything possible to revive the economy. Iran is part of the same gameplan.

  12. Another wonderfully informative – and, dare I say, hopeful post, @sandomina. Thank you and, please keep them coming!

    1. Thank you so much, D’Nanda. It is always delightful to have you over.
      We must avoid discussing China too much… As they say “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”.

      1. Wisdom, @sandomina; always ready to read something of yours, on any topic you choose.

  13. Very well articulated indeed ,Sandeep ! Geopolitics is an ever-changing canvas, where there are no permanent enemies and no permanent friends. If Iran suites China more than Pakistan, China would not think twice. And this investment isn’t just for nothing.Your accurate conclusion of the Geopolical scenario so very well applies on China which is a country after money as well as polical power and knows no boundaries in realization of its ambitions at the cost of others miseries! But then there is be an end to its vicious plans once its neighbours realize them & dont fall to its alluring designs which are never going to benefit them excepting China! Thanks for the awareness,Sir!

    1. As they say “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”. Therefore we must allow China to spread wide and thin.
      Iranian citizens are very nationalistic in nature. They don’t like external forces and workers on their soil. They would oppose China at any cost.
      The worst response is from the EU. They have kneeled down in front of China. One would see the official statements coming from the US, Australia, Japan, and even minnows like Vietnam, but not the EU.
      If we do not take a devil head-on, it would keep coming back to haunt us.

  14. As usual, great analysis and clarity of thought. Iam sure some Chinese are also getting updated about their Strategic Dance.

    1. Thank you so much, Ashish, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. I am glad that you have liked it.

  15. Very well written presenting the facts and building them up to possible scenarios in the future. Impact on Iran and thereafter on cons have been explained well.
    Just a thought, what with changing technology and reduced dependence on fossil fuels, has China miscalculated somewhere with a 25 year understanding?

    A good change from Sino India and Sino US relations. Many of us weren’t even thinking of this.

    1. Thank you so much, Rajeev, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.
      Buying fuel is optional, not compulsory for China. But whenever they buy, it would be discounted. Iran has enslaved itself for the funds, going against the very reason the present regime came into existence.
      Iranians have realized that and making noise about it. Coming 2 years in the region are very interesting from the geopolitical point of view.

  16. Truly an eye opener! Well written and explained blog , thanks for sharing. Maybe its too early to assume that China is making a mistake there might be a bigger plan against India . Just my thought.

    1. Thank you so much, Halbarbera, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts.
      There are going to be many interesting twists and turns in the story. Let us wait and watch.

  17. Sandy your research is awesome. I hope things go this way.
    I love your write ups.
    I still don’t understand how could China fool the whole world for so many years, get everyone hand over practically all their business to China so that almost all economies would be paralysed without China.
    So China achieved as planned.
    Now in this CPEC and Iran-China deal, do you think suddenly the world has become smarter than China?? Have they really spread their wings beyond abilities?? Or they are using the resources and funds of nations where they work yet put them in debt.

    1. China understands the human mind very well. Their leaders are well-read and they implement what they have learned. For them, every man is a whore, only the price has to be right. They buy out Kings, Dictators, Prime Ministers, Presidents, Politicians, Journalists, Scientists, and you name it.
      Their best principle is – no principle. When a country gets down to that level, nothing can stop it.

  18. Brilliant analysis! Have a doubt if China will give up on CPEC after investing so much. They aren’t known to lose something like this. Might not fit into Chinese philosophy to accept defeat due to POK, Balochistan vulnerability. But this new route to Chabahar through the Wakahan corridor is so much better than CPEC , then why didn’t they think of this earlier. Not sure if China walked into a trap set by India – though it looks convenient to say now. Iran is a shrewd country , surprised that they accepted Chinese! US sanctions seem to have made weird friends.

    A very interesting analysis….. haven’t seen this line of thought before. Hope a strategy is not in the open now):

    Keep up the good work!

    1. Thank you so much for sharing and sharing your thoughts. The CPEC is not an investment. It is a loan and that too at commercial rates. Pakistan has to pay back to Chinese, every dollar invested.
      China is more worried about POK than Balochistan. Gilgit-Baltistan(POK) from where the highway would be passing is every close to the Indian border and vulnerable to sabotage.
      Afghanistan and Iran were not with China until the very recent past. Things have started taking shape after 2018. Sanctions on Iran and the US pulling out from Afghanistan has had a tremendous effect on the region. Taliban could soon take over Afghanistan, they need money, which China once again is ready to provide.

  19. As always sandomina, you’ve opened my eyes to things that, in a way, I wish I didn’t know, but we can’t bury our heads in the sand either. The world in so many ways is changing, and that’s evolution for you. I just hope that change is a good thing for those of us who want a better world for everybody and not just those who want power

  20. I hope you don’t mind!!! But I have nominated you for the ‘Sunshine Blogger Award’ should you choose to take part? I considered some very interesting questions for you! Please say yes? Looking forward to finding out about you a little bit more Sandomina! 😙

      1. The choice is of course open! I only chose to do them once before then I refused a couple of times! But do you know? I was list for words these last 10 days, which is unlike me! And being asked questions and then thinking about asking questions made my words return!!

        You are a man of many words! Enjoy them…

  21. sandomina

    Excellent post.

    I linked your post in a post i have scheduled for July 18, AM titled China Iran Deal Landmine.

    If you do not want the link after reading the post. let me know and I will delete the link.

    Regards and goodwill blogging.

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your wonderful thoughts. Sorry for the late reply. Do use the link for your post purpose.
      Regards.

  22. No India and Afganistaan will allow to make a landmine.Iran has lost his mind because of loneliness.so he is playing in hand of China may be in hand of Russia.they all are going to become mad for being powerful.Iranian petrol is reason of proud for Iran.If Russia conquered Iran then he could not nothing like IRAQ-I think so.that all are war for become to save their existences.is it not?plz reply.

    1. Thank you so much, Aruna, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. You are so right in your analysis. However, Russia would be a fence sitter. After initial support to China, it would move to the coalition against China-Iran-Pakistan-N Korea. Iranians are very proud people and they would not anyone flounder their resources.

  23. Kudos to you for very objectively stating the likely scenarios post the Iran-China Deal. There are many pitfalls in the deal and the possibility of failure is higher than success. However, a few random points to ponder……
    – China has a stated policy of boosting Green Energy and reducing carbon footprint, but will still have a substantial oil and gas dependency.
    – Despite official Green BRI Policy, China is continuing to promote dependence on fossil fuels power generation in developing nations and investing in environmentally damaging infrastructure projects. China requires secure source to provide oil and gas to these nations.
    – Like North Korea, Iran will get its nuclear deterrence and Ballistic Missiles through China that will ensure her survival and enhance her bargaining power.
    – Chinese soldiers on Iranian soil provide her with a limited shied against sporadic attacks on her developmental projects.
    – A permanent base port and an airfield with the Chinese Military hardware at the mouth of the Hormuz will earn the Chinese maritime insurance companies a good slice of the insurance premium, so far totally controlled by the West.
    – Rapid expansion without consolidation is a time tested recipe for disaster, one that the world is hoping will topple China.
    – We need a better plan, if we need to retain our autonomy.

    1. Thank you so much, Atul, for stopping by and sharing your wonderful thoughts.
      China is pushing its outdated coal power plants through BRI to underdeveloped countries.
      China is known for the proliferation of nuclear and missile technology. It does it through its proxy countries, Pakistan and N Korea.
      This time around, the world should not continue with its procrastination and double standards while dealing with China. It should be dealt with in a similar manner, as with any other rogue nation.

    1. Thank you so much, Anjali, for stopping by and sharing your thoughts. I will surely check it out.

  24. Iran naturally has to align with CHINA in view of the long drawn enmity with US and India seemingly aligning with the US in the present context. In the absence of a long term, foresighted strategic policy India has not been able to accomplish its set objectives in Chabahar and making inroads in to the Central Asian Countries. The present development will certainly make CPEC redundant and it will certainly affect the Pak economy. However, Pak-China alliance in Afghanistan will flourish after the withdrawal of US Troops. In this scenario India will have two issues to handle

    (a) Explore other approaches for the Central Asian Countries .
    (b) Look for another source of oil supply as Iran may not play up further.

    Though CHINA has outstretched itself the partnership with Iran may fetch better dividends even at the cost of augmenting/increasing nuke weapons in the middle east. It seems to be a deliberately planned with clearer objectives by CHINA as well as IRAN.

    The Chinese action in the LAC in eastern Ladakh and subsequent revelation about its massive wartime build up speaks volume of its aim duly supported with deliberate plan and preparation.

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your wonderful thoughts.
      After the US sanctions, India is not buying oil from Iran, and that would continue, for some time to come. We have already shifted to Saudi Arabia, though Iranian oil is very heavy and difficult to process. The Reliance refinery in Jamnagar is one of the most advanced in processing the heavy crude.
      The most threatening outcome of this alliance could be nuclear and missile technology proliferation to Iran via Pakistan and N Korea. Responsible countries to wake up to that reality before it is too late.

  25. I am beginning to suspect the Communist Pary of China’s (CPC) critical vulnerability is its ever-weakening link to Daoism.

    The Chinese people need to be reminded on a daily basis that today’s CPC is not led by a Daoist vision.

    1. Thank you so much, ST, for sharing your wonderful thoughts. I am under the weather presently, so I shall get back soon for a detailed discussion.
      Warm regards.

  26. Before things/karmas start to shake china up, much is going to happen in Iran sooner than we may expect. Israel-hezbollah have already started to rough each other up. Iran could become the centre of you know what. Brilliant essay again.

    1. Thank you so much for stopping by and sharing your wonderful thoughts. Things are shaping up very fast. We would see happenings in the coming 5 years that we haven’t seen in the past 50 years. China’s move in Iran is going to be a costly one, and the biggest loser would be Pakistan.

  27. Two phrases came to mind. One: “Never let them see you desperate” Desperate people make horrible mistakes. Two: This is one my father gave me. As a kid I could be quite out there. He said “It is wiser to keep your mouth shut and be thought a fool, than to open it and remove all doubt”
    I’ve thought it foolish to lay too many cards on the table. If people (countries) give away or say too much, then what recourse do they have? They are then easily played.
    One can become too eager and make foolish mistakes, no doubt.

    1. Haha… Very apt advice from your father.
      The Iran deal is bad news for Iranian citizens, Pakistan and finally China.
      China is spreading itself far and wide as if the world is coming to an end. Such deals along with BRI would become China’s Gordian knot.

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